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SSN - Samson Oil & Gas

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Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Strike off the Goshen County land sale final closing please and put another ohhh $3 520 000.00 in the cookie jar marked "billion dollar oil field drilling expenses" kthxbai

Ooops almost forgot, have a nice weekend all :D
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Having a look at the long term chart for SSN.

Capture.PNG

A few thoughts come to mind. The first is that obviously the long term downtrend is broken although it did scurry back down to 3 cents after touching the upper trendline of the long term downtrend! :eek:

Secondly we are now trading in quite a well traded range historically between 6 and 14 cents. I am seriously doubtful 6 cents is going to break given all the news from the North Stockyard wells, JV partnerships and gas asset sales leading into the two exploratory wells in the Hawk springs project early next year.

IMHO we should be on the march northwards pretty strongly in the next six months and looking to crack 14 cent resistance easily by 2Q2011.

As soon as the Hawk Spring results are in then we should smash through 14 cent resistance and head off into blue sky country.

Lets see where we sit in June 2011
:2twocents
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Another land deal has been done.

http://www.jpubb.com/en/press/25186/ :eek:

JDR is owned by Japanese interests who are ready to invest 390 million into their share of drilling expenses.

That's a pretty substantial overall drilling budget and they seem more than confident they are going to be finding plenty of oil...

"The drilling of the initial Fidelity operated wells and subsequent production in the Niobrara play is
likely to begin in 2011. JDR estimates that its portion of the total development costs will be
approximately US$390 million. The gravity of crude oil from the Niobrara Field will be an
estimated API 32~39.

Surely they have test wells come in with this sort of statement.

I'm wondering at what stage the market is going to assign any sort of value to our acreages?

At this stage it is practically nil. Current market cap of 108 million and cash backing of 70 million or so.

We have the Stockyard field up in the Bakken with two great producing wells in production and two more underway and possibly four or five more if the spacings go to 320 acres.

That's our market cap right there before we go to the gas assets that are up for sale to help fund the Hawk Springs campaign.

Oh yes Hawk Springs. Terry Barr has put a valuation on the field of 799 million.
Capture.PNG

Now the price of oil has risen at least 10% since that time and his EUR of 413 000 bbls per well are very conservative given recent statements from EOG and Chesapeake (aka the neighbours)talking more along the lines of 500 000 bbls per well EUR.

So adding those two factors into that valuation metric I see us closer to the billion dollar mark.

It's just a matter of time I guess, just a matter of time. :rolleyes:
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Saw some news yesterday about a blowout of sorts in the Niobrara. Too much pressurised oil for the wellhead to handle? LOL

I was thinking about what the 3.8 % royalty deal might be worth from Chesapeake.

If SSN values the 17 000 acre Hawk Spring field at 800 mm at EUR of 413K per well that has gone up to 500K per well aka 20%. Include the oil price rising and as I get closer to a billion dollars. Divided by 17 000 acres is $58 882 an acre.

Chesapeake brought 22 710 acres by $58 882 gives a rough neighbourly valuation of $1 335 882 352 times 3.8 % royalties equals

$50, 763, 529.

:2twocents

Have a nice day :D
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

If only the general market had your enthusiasm Slipperz...

I've only been a holder for a few weeks but have been expecting some movement. It's an extraordinarily tight trading range its been in.

You'd have to think they are a pretty attractive takeover target too.
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

grants said:
If only the general market had your enthusiasm Slipperz...

I've only been a holder for a few weeks but have been expecting some movement. It's an extraordinarily tight trading range its been in.

You'd have to think they are a pretty attractive takeover target too.
Click to expand...

Yup. Every news service in the US ran this picture overnight

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/photos/0/038b78b2-7e34-488b-9bad-9e581f0adb00.html?SITE=NYPLA&SECTION=MONEY&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

But I guess the players like CHK and EOG already have the seismics and are proving up this quarter with exploratory wells.

We are lagging and totally susceptible to a to a takeover as we are still conducting seismic with our cash from the land sale to CHK.

If CHK gets good results from our acreages we sold them next door after they sold their eagle ford assets for a bundle I wouldn't be surprised to see an all out takeover offer.

If I had the money I'd do it.

SSN is so undervalued it's beyond words IMHO.

I'll be sad if this does eventuate cos I can see a lot more value than a few cents in this company.
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

I watched this webinar this morning and it brought a few thoughts to mind.

https://secure.oilandgasinvestor.com/webinars/?eventid=61

Oh it is free btw you just need to register. A good in depth geological rundown on the play.

I have been a little bit concerned as to the northerly nature of our acreages given most of the drilling is around the silo field and even south and east of there.

Listening to Terry Barr and looking at the resistance contours on our acreages certainly puts my mind at ease on that note.

Reagan Dukes the analyst listed all the players actively drilling at this stage so I thought I'd research all their most recent presentations.

Here they are on my watchlist

Capture.PNG

Some (notably Apache) which has a huge market cap make no mention of the Niobrara. EOG has a mention in it's reserves as "too early" lol while Carrizo makes mention of some exploratory drilling activity.

Other than that it's pretty much a case of waiting for news ( there are a few quarterly conference calls due early November) and watching the share price action for the nearology value.


:cautious:
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Many thanks for all the news and updates

I have taken a small holding in this company

Cheers
James
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Not a lot to be said about the current SP other than to say I have been topping up! Eventually we'll bottom out and head back up and in the meantime I'm buying with all the cash I can lay my hands on. :cool:

On the news front the CEO of Noble Energy is keeping his numbers close to his chest but sounding very upbeat about the Niobrara in their quarterly conference call....

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10905825/3/noble-energy-ceo-discusses-q3-2010-results-earnings-call-transcript.html


"Now, these included the sanction of the Tamar project in Israel, significant progress with the horizontal Niobrara play in the DJ Basin and continuing Galapagos in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico despite the moratorium that we had there. These accomplishments are what will really bring great results to our company in the future."

Our DJ Basin volumes continued to reflect growth from both the vertical and the horizontal development programs."
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Well what a week. I'm broke. Dead set stony. Got a bag full of SSN shares though :D

Mildly tempted to take some profit today on my bottom buying but the way the price of oil is tracking I'll hold.

Nice price action on the POO too, over $87 dollars there for a bit.

I suppose how much that is going to affect our company valuation depends on how much oil we have.

None in Goshen County it seems according to the market.

I personally ascribe considerably more value and well Q1 2011 isn't so far away.

I would think a big drilling services outfit like Halliburton (rumourtrage is pointing)would like to see seismics before they commit to the venture.

I'm sure they have no shortage of minnows saying "drill for us we have the best prospects".

So seismics done this week and into the data room with the Zavanna whizzkids and then we're off and drilling after Chrissie with or without a jvp.

Oh and there's still plenty of interest in the nearology...http://cbs4denver.com/news/Amid.oil.speculation.2.1996868.html :cautious:

Then again nearolgy isn't counting for much at this stage given the value of the acreages we sold next door to chesapeake.

The sellers (bless em) who let go at this weeks prices are a bit like house owners who saw the house next door go for a couple of million and decided to sell for 330 grand LOL

:bananasmi
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Speaking of the neighbours here's a transcript of their Q3conference call http://www.thestreet.com/story/10912034/1/chesapeake-energy-q3-2010-earnings-call-transcript.html

Highlight of the call imo the chairman reports....


"Our latest JV, the CNOOC deal in the Eagle Ford, is expected to close in the near future. And our data room is open for the Niobrara Shale JV, in which we own 800,000 net acres, evenly split between the Powder River and D-J Basins. We expect to also sell a 33% working interest in this play at what we believe will be an attractive price both to us and to our future partner.

We believe the recoverable resource under our 800,000 net acres is an unrisked approximate 4.6 billion barrels of oil, representing potentially $400 billion of future undiscounted revenue. This is a reminder that the size of the plays that we have chased and have captured is quite remarkable."


And we'll take 3.8% of everything you drill out of our 22 000 acres thanks very much.

The first four wells should be coming into production soon and should show in the next quarters revenue.

Say 100 bopd by 85 a barrel by 30 days by 3.8% or roughly 10 grand a month per well. This is going to be the deal that keeps on giving!

As Chesapeake is the largest onshore driller in the US with 133 rigs active and are shifting their focus away from gas to oil at present I wonder how many wells we will have drilled for a royalty return in the next few quarters as Chesapeake goes about extracting said 4.6 billion barrels.

Should provide substantial additional working capital for our drilling campaign next door in Goshen county anyways!


:cool:
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Hi Slipperz,

Just met this week after becoming members of a similar club, I am sure you remember me. Always following this one. Be in touch soon.

Youtry
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

By the way when I say club I meant investment club, do not want anyone to get the wrong impression on my first post, looking forward to sharing information
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Youtry said:
Hi Slipperz,

Just met this week after becoming members of a similar club, I am sure you remember me. Always following this one. Be in touch soon.

Youtry
Click to expand...


Welcome onboard Youtry!

Look forward to hearing more from you in the near future.

Hopefully this past phase in SSN has been the final shake of tree and it's all buyers joining in from here.


:xmastree


Looking at the depth it's a remarkable turnaround. Sellers have been outnumbering buyers by 10 million for weeks and now we have 12 million buyers for only 10 million sellers.

Here's hoping for some good IP results after the Rodney#1-14H frac and some gas flows from the Diamondback prospect this month to propel things along.

Should be some operational news coming this week.....:eek:
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Hi Slipperz,

Here are my inital calculations. The assumptions are as follows:

The old wells (Harstad #1, Leonard, Sabretooth & State Oil & Gas) + Gas assets have flowed pretty consistently over the last 3 quarters so you can confidently (subject to downtime) est. flow rates
I have added Gene with first 90 days = 350BOPD (think was higher but will stick with this) and then next 90days = 220BOPD (last quarter amounts) - I have then allowed 25% decline a quarter after this as we know Bakken wells decrease over time
I have included Bakken Wells - Gary, Rodney, Earl & Harstad#2 in my caluclations - assuming timelines are met as outlined by the company. R & E have strong oil and gas shows, but waiting on frac. Harstad #2 to be drilled next quarter.
I have assumed the other wells flow similar to Gene, although Gary could be higher - we will find out on 24/11/10 when comes off confidential list
I have used $US80 oil and $US3.6 gas - assume dollar at parity or close to

If I use these figures and the timeline provided by the company (ie 1 month of Rodney production for Dec 10 quarter, E & H#2 staggered in next quarter so not in my Dec 10 calculations):

I will stick my neck out as say I think in December 10 quarter we would be looking at a low point of $2.5m in income and reduced cash burn (based on expenses in Sept 10 quarterly advice by the company). Major cash burn will be the 3-D Sesmic (approx $2m). Gary, Rodney & Earl major costs paid previous quarter(s) so income just starting to flow in from these.

Things that could affect these calculations for Dec 10 quarter:

Diamondback (100%) - not sure what to expect here so have left out, drilling November
Any more information on Gene flow rates to see if 25% decline is a reasonable assumption
Higher production flow rates for Gary
Unknown flow rates for Rodney, confirmation of flow, Delays in frac.
Oil prices continue to rise and effect of $AUD
Left Field Announcements - JV for Niobrara, new acerage purchases (would pefer away from Niobrara as have CHK drilling and our land there already at 43k arces but leave for management to decide)

To me these are positive signs as it shows the cash on hand is slowly being used to generate growing income and cashflow with higher income from a change of focus from gas to oil. While that cash remains strong then the company has the ability to take advantage of many opportunities in front of it at present - looks like they are taking a measured and conservative approach.

March 2011 is when the real action and the potential for this company can be realised very quickly (or not), but I will post more on that when more information comes to hand, this could really be an exciting quarter as follows:

Fully developed Bakken, potential for reduced spacing for Bakken = more wells
CHK Royalty, we will know more
Sale of Gas Assets
Results from Niobrara (first 2 wells) and more information from other operators in the area

As always in this area of the market it carries risks and there are a lot of ifs and maybes, so you need to make your own investment decisions, so do not take this as investment advice to buy, sell or hold just sharing information.

See a good story building with some risk invloved, at this mkt cap (fully diluted around - 1,996m shares - $127m or undiluted (less 330k options at 1.5c) say 1,666m around $107m based on Friday's closing price of 6.4c) it is looking like a good punt to take, rewards could be high and the downside risk reducing with each find - but we will find out more as the story unfolds and that will help confirm my own decisions to continue holding or sell. I wil try to provide some of my own valuations a little later, but will stick with company and other internet posters on that at the moment as I would want to see some more results first of all - I am a pretty conservative investor and also work on what I think is the lowest/realistic outcomes.

Final disclosue I hold this stock in 2 parcels - LT which means waiting for March 11 to unfold and short term trade to take advantage of any dips. I do hold other investments as do not believe in putting all eggs in one basket but I see this investment at the early stages of a solid story unfolding.

I will add more as more information comes in. Welcome any feedback (from anybody) on my assumptions above, including chartists (I am not one) for short term opportunities.

Bit long winded but just wanted to paint a clear picture how I am looking at it at present. :)
 
Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Youtry said:
Hi Slipperz,

Here are my inital calculations. The assumptions are as follows:

The old wells (Harstad #1, Leonard, Sabretooth & State Oil & Gas) + Gas assets have flowed pretty consistently over the last 3 quarters so you can confidently (subject to downtime) est. flow rates
I have added Gene with first 90 days = 350BOPD (think was higher but will stick with this) and then next 90days = 220BOPD (last quarter amounts) - I have then allowed 25% decline a quarter after this as we know Bakken wells decrease over time
I have included Bakken Wells - Gary, Rodney, Earl & Harstad#2 in my caluclations - assuming timelines are met as outlined by the company. R & E have strong oil and gas shows, but waiting on frac. Harstad #2 to be drilled next quarter.
I have assumed the other wells flow similar to Gene, although Gary could be higher - we will find out on 24/11/10 when comes off confidential list
I have used $US80 oil and $US3.6 gas - assume dollar at parity or close to

If I use these figures and the timeline provided by the company (ie 1 month of Rodney production for Dec 10 quarter, E & H#2 staggered in next quarter so not in my Dec 10 calculations):

I will stick my neck out as say I think in December 10 quarter we would be looking at a low point of $2.5m in income and reduced cash burn (based on expenses in Sept 10 quarterly advice by the company). Major cash burn will be the 3-D Sesmic (approx $2m). Gary, Rodney & Earl major costs paid previous quarter(s) so income just starting to flow in from these.

Things that could affect these calculations for Dec 10 quarter:

Diamondback (100%) - not sure what to expect here so have left out, drilling November
Any more information on Gene flow rates to see if 25% decline is a reasonable assumption
Higher production flow rates for Gary
Unknown flow rates for Rodney, confirmation of flow, Delays in frac.
Oil prices continue to rise and effect of $AUD
Left Field Announcements - JV for Niobrara, new acerage purchases (would pefer away from Niobrara as have CHK drilling and our land there already at 43k arces but leave for management to decide)

To me these are positive signs as it shows the cash on hand is slowly being used to generate growing income and cashflow with higher income from a change of focus from gas to oil. While that cash remains strong then the company has the ability to take advantage of many opportunities in front of it at present - looks like they are taking a measured and conservative approach.

March 2011 is when the real action and the potential for this company can be realised very quickly (or not), but I will post more on that when more information comes to hand, this could really be an exciting quarter as follows:

Fully developed Bakken, potential for reduced spacing for Bakken = more wells
CHK Royalty, we will know more
Sale of Gas Assets
Results from Niobrara (first 2 wells) and more information from other operators in the area

As always in this area of the market it carries risks and there are a lot of ifs and maybes, so you need to make your own investment decisions, so do not take this as investment advice to buy, sell or hold just sharing information.

See a good story building with some risk invloved, at this mkt cap (fully diluted around - 1,996m shares - $127m or undiluted (less 330k options at 1.5c) say 1,666m around $107m based on Friday's closing price of 6.4c) it is looking like a good punt to take, rewards could be high and the downside risk reducing with each find - but we will find out more as the story unfolds and that will help confirm my own decisions to continue holding or sell. I wil try to provide some of my own valuations a little later, but will stick with company and other internet posters on that at the moment as I would want to see some more results first of all - I am a pretty conservative investor and also work on what I think is the lowest/realistic outcomes.

Final disclosue I hold this stock in 2 parcels - LT which means waiting for March 11 to unfold and short term trade to take advantage of any dips. I do hold other investments as do not believe in putting all eggs in one basket but I see this investment at the early stages of a solid story unfolding.

I will add more as more information comes in. Welcome any feedback (from anybody) on my assumptions above, including chartists (I am not one) for short term opportunities.

Bit long winded but just wanted to paint a clear picture how I am looking at it at present. :)
Click to expand...

very good info many thanks
I have got in at 055 40,000, 063 18,000 and, 069 20,000 just small amounts
I sold some AUT to get into SSN
Thanks to slipperz and yourself for the information

James
 

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