SSN - Samson Oil & Gas

[yarrabah]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Via HC

Notes from AGM.

Cash Balance $76M
Estimated Tax payable from sale $10M (depending on the sale of gas assets)
Keeping it in $US, spread amongst various banks. Capital preservation the key.

Bakken
Looking to add to North Dakota acreage. We understand that play quite well and there are opportunities, some expensive, some cheaper if you are entrepreneurial. It will take several months to bring this to fruition.

In general, demand for frac equipment across various US shale plays has led to delays for smaller players wanting to keep costs down. (see bobsyer's post) Rodney frac late this month/early dec. Earl not until the start of next year.

Three Forks potential. Currently working on planning. Potential six further wells.

Niobrara
Looking to do a modest farm down on retained acreage. A strategic partner where SSN could access frac equipment and expertise, negotiations progressing. EUR 413,000 is achievable.

3D seismic began yesterday. Demand for 3D crews also high, hence small delay.

2 exploratory wells to be drilled late in 1st Q next year.

Now standing at 16,000 acres - A stable number. Targeting a further 4000 acres. 'We think this acreage is in the premier position.'

Oil receiving infrastructure just north of SSN land. Delivery to 3 refinery's. Gas pipeline which could be easily be adapted to take gas from SSN. Also railway line, giving various options to market. Mostly flat farm land, little snowfall, no winter impediments. Friendly neighbourhood in a energy friendly state.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Thanks for the update Yarrabah greatly appreciated that you took the time to share this information with SSN holders. Just a wait and see at the moment, just like to add we should get some news on Gary Well next week as comes off of confidential list - 24/11/10 so might get some mulity update during the week re: Gary flow rates, 3D started and maybe firmer date for Rodney Frac.

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Finally got some good news!

Not from the company that is they seem to be too busy with this and that to perhaps let us know that the seismic is finally underway.

Did a bit of snooping and have now subscribed to the local rag aka 'The Torrington Telegram'

Here we have it hot off the local press!!

http://www.torringtontelegram.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=34&story_id=5695

So naturally my curiosity got the better of me and so with the help of google earth i have an overview of what we're drilling here next to good ol deer creek road and county road 23!

Geographically I see what they were talking about an 'uplift'...stratiographic trap down below filled with lots of oil??? Lets hope so

 

[yarrabah]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Thanks Slipperz. A good read. TB said they threw a BBQ and slab for the local landholders & 3D crew at the start of testing. Friendly landholders he says.

Below is a post from Yahoo by joechentva. I have followed SSN Yahoo forum for over a year. A lot of rubbish but the odd good poster. He has posted since Jan/Feb this year. He is the oil drilling game and knows his stuff. I like to read as many different views as possible from good knowledgable posters. Sorry if boring.

Posted 19-Nov-10

"Did SSN latest presentation mention about additional Bakken leases on the rims of the greater Williston basin? My ancient computer software are having problem to open that file.

The greater Williston basin extends from Canada to central N. Dakota, to eastern Montana and north S. Dakota. Since the oil production started in the 1960s the main producing formation groups (Madison Gp, Red River Gp, etc) are mostly within the inner basin bowl. The hot Bakken group has only produced <10% of the total cumulative oil production of the greater basin. Only a small fraction of the reserves in the greater basin has been tapped.

The inner basin bowl is bounded by ancient faults Nesson & Heart River to the east, Billings & Cedar creek to the south and SW, the famous Poplar Dome defines north and NW boundaries. The oil producing shale/limestone source rocks continuous reservoir formations within this up dip bowl are relatively flat and undisturbed thus are easy to find the flat pay zones. The current and past hot spots are mostly in this bowl and the lease prices are sky high.

The latest BLM assessment indicates 4 BBO recoverable oil untapped in the greater basin, 1380 MMO in the center bowl, 870 MMO in the NW rims, 975 MMO in the eastern rims and 410 MMO in the SW and southern rims. There are twice as much oil reserves in the rims than that in the inner basin. However, due to the tectonic activities in the past 150 millions years (MA), the 200-500 MA old oil rich source rock formations in the basin rims have been broken up (and/or down) badly thus are not easy to find the orientation of the massive pay zones. The basin rims land lease prices may still are in the reasonably low range, not even as high as the Niobrara plays. BTW, the out crop Niobrara shale in this region is excellent for making cement since it contains very low hydrocarbon.

The latest auction of Tyler formation (on top of Madison Gp, near the southern rims) indicates the land grab will spread out to the greater basin rims. With SSN technical based mgmt team and good cash reserves (from selling Niobrara), they should get some real good deals, like the $350/ac Niobrara leases in 2008. All SSN has to do with new Bakken leases is to de-risk by 3-D seismic survey and couple test wells, then wait for the
speculation to boost it sky high.

SSN and us are here in the markets to make money the easiest ways and the greatest returns. Buy low, sell high, speculate just like the Goshen Niobrara deal. "

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Qoute from the American Association of Petroleum Engineers.

“We think 3-D will be key to the economic success in the Niobrara,” Ware said, “because the rock is so much more broken up, more faulted and fractured in the reservoir itself.

“We’re doing more things there that aren’t necessary in the Bakken, such as signing contracts for aeromagnetics and getting bids on specific designs for 3-D,” Ware noted.

He said they think the edges of the Niobrara will be the best parts of the play just as in the Bakken.

“If you can catch an updip edge where the thermal maturity has stopped, we think those will be the sweet spots,” Ware said. “We went after an updip edge, as are others, that we believe is the end of thermal maturity.”

Source article here http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2010/11nov/niobrara1110.cfm

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Meanwhile back in Williams County ...the plot thickens.

Zavanna has been granted two wildcat permits both tight holes in Williams County at 153N, 99W on differing blocks of course.

http://ndenergynotes.blogspot.com/search/label/Williams%20County

Surely this has to be on our acreages as Earl and Rodney are at 154N 99W.

Yet nothing at the agm or no news to suggest we are drilling more in the Bakken?

Is this Zavanna drilling for a competitor with the nearolgy?

I'm confused now

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Upon further scrutiny it would seem that these wells are ours I think.

In the strategic plan it was said "Because Samson believes the field will ultimately be approved for development on 320 acres, it is likely there will be an additional four drilling locations"

No mention was made of the cost of these wells in the 11.2 million budgeted until EFY2010.

But in the AGM report we got this...




So without too much hoopla it would seem we're off and drilling another four wells into our sweet sweet acreage in the Bakken!

I guess with 50 odd million in the bank we can afford to punch a few more holes in the Bakken.

Four more wells with Ip's of 2 780 bopd like Gary1-#24H might give the shareprice a nudge, yet it seems the market has pretty much overlooked this potential revenue bonanza!

 

[Donga]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Thanks Slipperz for the updates. They haven't been communicating as much lately and good to hear of progress from you.

SSN appears special IMO

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Thanks Slipperz for the updates. They haven't been communicating as much lately and good to hear of progress from you.

SSN appears special IMO

Indeed the company has been very quiet haven't they!

Anyhoo looks like I'm wrong on the Zavanna wells. Threw it up on yahoo overnight and someone posted a map that shows these two new wells off our acreage. What a difference a degree makes!

Not to say we aren't going to drill four more in the bakken it just seems these aren't them :

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Announcement out today confirming 3D commenced 19/11/10 with 6 wks to complete and that Rodney & Earl Frac will be delayed. Working on getting a 12 month contract in place 50/50 with operater of the wells to get more certainity with the frac crews, hopefully in Dec to clear backlog. Diamondback confirmed having issues with title which they are currently working on resolving and looking at drilling Q1 or 2 2011.

Guess can look at it 2 ways, first is short term price pressure on share price will likely be downwards and the positive view if the frac crews are in such demand then we are obviously drilling in the right areas.

Happier (even though not what you really wanted to hear) with management communicating the current situation to shareholders and that they are taking action to rectify the situation which has been out of their control.

LT fundamentals still looking good, whether wells in production this quarter or next will not have much impact on the overall picture as SSN is currently not struggling for a dollar. Holding and will be looking to add if any further price weakness. Early 2011 is now looking like the time for any potential upwards share price movement.

Pretty much in line with Yarrabah post.

Note Gary Well in Bakken off of confidential 24/11/10 US time so should get some news there in the next day or so.

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

I might have to take up a new line of sexual activity the way this is playing out.

Following SSN is turning me into a passive agressive masochist. Oh SP down again no worries * whip me harder*

:whip:whip:whip:whip:whip

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Hang in there Slipperz, never good to see the share price go down and it is just gonna take a little longer. SSN is not going to go broke anytime soon with some delays. Maybe Gary numbers will change the focus, who knows. Get the bad news out first and then hit with the good when noboby is looking.

Christmas may mean a smaller turkey at this stage but you will hopefully be able to make up for it in 2011.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Gary Well came off of confidential wells list (from ND website) yesterday as follows:

#18824 – ZAVANNA, LLC, GARY 1-24H, NWNW SEC 24-154N-99W, WILLIAMS COUNTY
855 bopd, 300 bwpd- Bakken

Not sure if the 855BOPD relates to the average for 60 days (from 24/09/10) in production or if that was production for the day it was released. Previous advice from the company was first week was 1,068BOPD and 12/10/10 company announcement was the well was averaging 955BOPD for first 17 days. SSN share is 37% of this well or 855BOPD x 37% about 316BOPD. My thoughts were that the decline rates would have been greater.

However it looks like a strong performing well for first 60 days and the decline rates appear to be slower in line with previous advice provided by the company. We will need to keep an eye on decline rates for next 30 days to the end of the quarter. Waiting for confirmation from company to ensure we are reading this correctly but looking good from this information from the ND website - which is all we can go on at the moment without a company announcement - please DYOR.

Should give us some strong cashflow for the quarter considering our expenditure will also be reduced, as we will not be drilling Diamondback or finalising Rodney or Earl this quarter - drilling costs for Rodney and Earl were paid last quarter.

Sets it up nicely for early next year - if the company can get things sorted - Rodney, Earl to frac in January 2011 (maybe Rodney earlier), Harstad #2 also planned for Q1 to round out Bakken development and then maybe potential for 4 more wells with news on spacing application. Will definitely be a positive to get that 12 month Frac crew contract they are working on.

Then into the big play for Niobrara with 2 wells expected to be drilled by end of March 11 and some additional information from CHK wells and any royalty payments we maybe entitled to. More information from other operators will also slowly come out of the Niobrara.

Could 2011 be a bigger step up for SSN than 2010 was with the sale of the land? Only time will tell.

Slipperz at least (on low volume) the SP was up yesterday - not sure where it is heading ST but LT looking promising.

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Gary Well came off of confidential wells list (from ND website) yesterday as follows:

#18824 – ZAVANNA, LLC, GARY 1-24H, NWNW SEC 24-154N-99W, WILLIAMS COUNTY
855 bopd, 300 bwpd- Bakken

Not sure if the 855BOPD relates to the average for 60 days (from 24/09/10) in production or if that was production for the day it was released. Previous advice from the company was first week was 1,068BOPD and 12/10/10 company announcement was the well was averaging 955BOPD for first 17 days. SSN share is 37% of this well or 855BOPD x 37% about 316BOPD. My thoughts were that the decline rates would have been greater.

However it looks like a strong performing well for first 60 days and the decline rates appear to be slower in line with previous advice provided by the company. We will need to keep an eye on decline rates for next 30 days to the end of the quarter. Waiting for confirmation from company to ensure we are reading this correctly but looking good from this information from the ND website - which is all we can go on at the moment without a company announcement - please DYOR.

Should give us some strong cashflow for the quarter considering our expenditure will also be reduced, as we will not be drilling Diamondback or finalising Rodney or Earl this quarter - drilling costs for Rodney and Earl were paid last quarter.

Sets it up nicely for early next year - if the company can get things sorted - Rodney, Earl to frac in January 2011 (maybe Rodney earlier), Harstad #2 also planned for Q1 to round out Bakken development and then maybe potential for 4 more wells with news on spacing application. Will definitely be a positive to get that 12 month Frac crew contract they are working on.

Then into the big play for Niobrara with 2 wells expected to be drilled by end of March 11 and some additional information from CHK wells and any royalty payments we maybe entitled to. More information from other operators will also slowly come out of the Niobrara.

Could 2011 be a bigger step up for SSN than 2010 was with the sale of the land? Only time will tell.

Slipperz at least (on low volume) the SP was up yesterday - not sure where it is heading ST but LT looking promising.

1.85 million traded today. Might as well go into a trading halt due to lack of interest.

Knock off early for 2010 and wait for the day traders to start piling in in 2011.

 

[Youtry]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

The ND Wediste Source: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/bakkenwells.asp

Has been updated. The Gary Well (Well No. 18824) shows cumulative production to the 31/10/10 of 27,334. The cumulative production to 30/09/10 (first 6 days) was 7,562 giving total production of 19,772 or share to SSN of 37% or 7,316BOPD (oil only) for the month of October 10. For the 37 (could be 36 days) days this would give a average production for Gary of 739 BOPD.

Therefore it appears the amount on the Daily Activity Report, 855BOPD may have related to the first 30 days of production only, as the first 17 days were 955BOPD as per previous company announcements.

I find the above cumulative production amounts to be accurate when compared to the SSN Activity Reports so I would be using these amounts if you wanted to calculate current production.

You will also find the Gene and Leonard wells on the above link and if you took their production into account this would give SSN share of production for the month of October 2010 around 9,261 BOPD - this is only for the 3 wells in the Bakken. We only did 11,736 BOPD last quarter from all out producing oil assets. Therefore it is important to get Rodney and Earl sorted ASAP to offset the declines that the Bakken Wells experience, especially the Gary Well which is only in the first 3 months of production in which the declines are greatest.

Of course we need to include our other producing oil and gas assets to get the full likely turnover for October 10, which at an oil price of $80 (assuming this what they get) and assuming consistent production of the other assets could see SSN close to $1m for the month in potential income.

Please do your own research just based on my own calculations.

 

[yarrabah]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Late night, baby crying, research stuff, (you have been warned) follow link below to see Hal's promises for drilling & fraccing shale plays by 2013.

20% reduction in capex
35% reduction in personnel on well location
25% reduction in well completion time


Jump to slide 42

http://ir.halliburton.com/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=67605&eventID=3491585

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Late night, baby crying, research stuff, (you have been warned) follow link below to see Hal's promises for drilling & fraccing shale plays by 2013.

20% reduction in capex
35% reduction in personnel on well location
25% reduction in well completion time


Jump to slide 42

http://ir.halliburton.com/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=67605&eventID=3491585

Great find yarrabah, a very interesting and informative presentation.

The shock of the week has to be some buyers about on friday afternoon!

I've been busier than a one armed brickie and didn't even get to check the price all day on friday. After Thursdays trading I thought 0.057 was on the cards!

Looking at the monthly chart we have broken the shortterm downtrend on building if still low volume with sell depth considerably lightened.



Price of oil looking bullish again as well!

 

[yarrabah]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Thks Slipperz

Been quiet and so has SSN. Six weeks for 3D starting Nov 19th, 31st Dec precisely.

Someone would have a few ideas by now you would think.

All the best to all and have a great Xmas and New Year.

 

[Slipperz]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Thks Slipperz

Been quiet and so has SSN. Six weeks for 3D starting Nov 19th, 31st Dec precisely.

Someone would have a few ideas by now you would think.

All the best to all and have a great Xmas and New Year.

Cheers yarrabah.

Sadly it looks like there is nothing under the tree this year. Such is life in the markets I guess.

I think I've said all I can say about this company.

For all my time in the markets to date this has been the most disappointing, frustrating and unhappy quarter.

 

[Trevoru]

Re: SSN - Samson Exploration

Hi Slipperz - from a Samson holder and most other holders, thanks for all the work and posts - have a great Christmas and hopefully we'll all get a result in first 1/4 2011.

Rgs - Trevoru