Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SRX - Sirtex Medical

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Looking at the chart above we may be going for fifth time lucky. Investing on quarterly sales can be dangerous, 4% growth the previous quarter compared to 18.7% in the most recent.

38 consecutive quarters of growth is nothing to sneeze at however.

Here is a view from a major shareholder predicting $100 per share.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ry15oAg_1qw
 
Daily P&F Update:-

SRXs.gif
 
Qtly Dose Sale Numbers

srx.jpg

The last qtly figure was an all time record and to my way of figuring looks to confirm the current sales growth trend in the high teens. This is really encouraging considering we are still pre major trial data and bodes very well for what might already be being seen from those on the frontline.

What really matters though for SRX is the upcoming trial data – if that results in thermosphere’s climbing up the generally accepted standard of care chain then dose sales will undergo a paradigm shift.

Advised with the full year results was Manufacturing set to triple with new facilities in Germany and USA, so the company has already laid bets and invested in anticipation.
 
Have been looking into SRX a little bit lately and I still have some questions around moving up the treatment chain.

I understand that getting positive data will give them a stronger case to present to oncologists, but is it a sure thing that they will really be able to move up the chain?
Is there some sort of commission or incentive program that would lead the physicians to recommend and oncologists to provide the SirSpehere treatment?

BigPharma is very powerful and despite the success of Sirtex's product thus far, it would seem a difficult task to begin shunting them out of the way for first priority?
An analyst from Hunter Hall touched on this subject in a video I watched on youtube, but I couldn't really answer my above questions based on what he covered.
 
VSntchr said:
Have been looking into SRX a little bit lately and I still have some questions around moving up the treatment chain.

I understand that getting positive data will give them a stronger case to present to oncologists, but is it a sure thing that they will really be able to move up the chain?
Is there some sort of commission or incentive program that would lead the physicians to recommend and oncologists to provide the SirSpehere treatment?

BigPharma is very powerful and despite the success of Sirtex's product thus far, it would seem a difficult task to begin shunting them out of the way for first priority?
An analyst from Hunter Hall touched on this subject in a video I watched on youtube, but I couldn't really answer my above questions based on what he covered.
Click to expand...

These trials are at the standard of what is accepted as proof of efficacy by the profession. The whole intention is to overcome the inertia in the system to change – it is these type trials that redefine the standard of care.

Is it a sure thing that any successful trial will results in oncologists prescribing the best possible proven treatment? Nothings a sure thing, but we are talking about professionals and dying patients – so I’m optimistic that a successful trial will result in move up the treatment chain.:2twocents
 
Thanks for the reply.
I agree with that would like to think that the above holds true, even moreso for patients than for shareholders!
 
Well the half yearly report was released today to the market. From a very amateur fundamentalist it looked good to me with all the arrows pointing in the right direction but hopefully the likes of previous contributors Craft, Robusta, VSntchr, etc can give us their opinion(s) on the results;). The link below (when clicked) will take you to todays presentation...

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRX&E=ASX&N=782809

140218 - SRXs.gif​
 
Nothing very deep to add, with no debt and strong cash flows, it's the really nice 14.8% compound annual growth rate of revenue over the last five years I really like. The market is really starting to price in success in the clinical trials and a real step forward of revenue growth. The profits should multiply really quickly if a C.A.G.R. north of lets say 25% is achieved over the next five years.
 
piggybank said:
Well the half yearly report was released today to the market. From a very amateur fundamentalist it looked good to me with all the arrows pointing in the right direction but hopefully the likes of previous contributors Craft, Robusta, VSntchr, etc can give us their opinion(s) on the results;). The link below (when clicked) will take you to todays presentation...

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRX&E=ASX&N=782809

Click to expand...

Piggybank

Nice to see your charts and words:xyxthumbs

Dose sales are the most important indicator for me with SRX and they are published separately.
The financials at this stage are somewhat secondary for me as there is so much being spent on the trials, marketing and manufacturing capacity in preparation for the results, that underlying profitability is understated for current sales levels, which makes all those profit up arrows and balance sheet strength all the more impressive though they are now capitalising some of the expenses. FX lent a hand to these results as 95% of the revenue is earned in other currencies.

Most other Aus Biotech’s that have anything near SRX’s upside are still burning cash flat out.

Most relevant information to me was the change in SIRFLOX timeline from late 2014 to early 2015 and the strong recruitment numbers for the other trials.

Some people will probably think they have missed SRX already because it is priced in dollars rather than cents. – but IF (don’t miss the big if) the trials move SIR-Spheres up the treatment chain, we have only had entree so far. SRX is still capitalised under 1 Billion. Being self funded has kept the number of shares on issue stable.

If the trials fail – It’s not worth $15 but it’s not a total disaster either. DYOR on likely trial outcomes.
 
Pretty much nothing for me to add on what you've said right there craft.

The result was perhaps a little softer than I was expecting, but the FX impact did polish it up quite well.
They really are investing quite heavily and I agree with you that this investment as a precursor for what may be to come clouds the picture and thus measuring dose sales is the most important factor.


Continuing on from your point at the end there about the trials failing...what are your thoughts around the double edged sword effect of the trials.
For example; dose sales are growing quite nicely now, but if the trials were to fail...I imagine the growth path will remain fairly consistent with the recent past. The downside would be that the product would be harder to promote and other alternatives may become preferred, especially new innovations over the years which may promise more in the way of effectiveness and reduced side effects.
The flip side is that they receive positive data and with that a large amount of credibility to have their product further prioritised.

What I am getting at here, is that SRX is clearly undervalued should the results come back positive. BUT! how overvalued is it if they do not....
..My thinking is that if growth was to continue over the next 10 years similar to what it has achieved over the previous then it is not all that expensive.

With investing though its never that simple, and as I touched on above - negative results in the trial will probably have more of an impact than just eliminating the 'blue-sky' potential.

Just some rumblings of me trying to understand the risks of the investment - not holding yet but have been watching intently and building a war chest for this (and a few others :D ).
 
A Daily P&F Chart:-

There is a PDF file below the chart which is of the Investors Presentation delivered on the 8th May 2014.

140512 - SRXs.gif​
 

Attachments

  • SIRTEX.pdf
    1.5 MB · Views: 40
craft said:
Qtly Dose Sale Numbers

View attachment 56595

The last qtly figure was an all time record and to my way of figuring looks to confirm the current sales growth trend in the high teens. This is really encouraging considering we are still pre major trial data and bodes very well for what might already be being seen from those on the frontline.

What really matters though for SRX is the upcoming trial data – if that results in thermosphere’s climbing up the generally accepted standard of care chain then dose sales will undergo a paradigm shift.

Advised with the full year results was Manufacturing set to triple with new facilities in Germany and USA, so the company has already laid bets and invested in anticipation.
Click to expand...

SRX's latest quarterly sales figures are a game changer for me. My expectation was that dose sales growth would go exponential if the trials were successful. I think it may have started early, which bodes well for the trial results when released early next year. Somebody somewhere is seeing something to cause the dose sales to increase pre-result release.

Untitled.jpg
 
I had them in the ASX game - bought at 18.42 and sold at 20.27 after trying to predict movement based on graphs.

Live and learn :)
 
crypto said:
I had them in the ASX game - bought at 18.42 and sold at 20.27 after trying to predict movement based on graphs.

Live and learn :)
Click to expand...

Yep seems people are jumping onboard this growth story, I thought I paid too much around the $10.00 mark
 
Does anyone know why this stock tanked so much today? Down 8% but can't find any reason why. Volume seems modest too!
 

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