SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[skyQuake]

This sounds like your saying it's bearish Quake, i.e money being withdrawn from funds, no money left on the sidelines, down we go? Or your saying just now as the retailers are getting bearish, the larger hedge funds/IBs are going to get bullish?

As for the Citi MMs, if the market was pushed down those 3 ticks, what ramifications would this have?

Yeh basically your warrants blow up.

With the funds, it definitely seems bearish. However this is only ONE fund in Aus. If we keep seeing massive crossings before the open then that is bad stuff.
Everyone and anyone has been buying dips in the rallies so it wouldnt surprise me that a fair few funds are fully invested.

And just when I think everything is gonna crash and burn, the ES does its reversal and stopping volume occurs on almost everything lol.

 

[MRC & Co]

Ok cool, I get you now. Yes, a LOT of traders got bearish right before that stopping vol. Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT

On the warrents/oppies, does this mean they simply become worthless? No further flow on effects into stocks/futures?

 

[Broadway]

Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT

I think the bhp/rio volume on friday was the first sign of some bullish activity.
But I dont think the bears will give up too easily.
We'll see if the usd can fall some tonight or not.

 

[skyQuake]

Ok cool, I get you now. Yes, a LOT of traders got bearish right before that stopping vol. Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT

On the warrents/oppies, does this mean they simply become worthless? No further flow on effects into stocks/futures?

Yeh the warrants "expire" prematurely, you get $0. Any further movements in the underlying are ignored.
Its pretty much a guarantee stop loss
So those warrants can be good if you expect the dow to have a big move.

 

[MRC & Co]

I think the bhp/rio volume on friday was the first sign of some bullish activity.
But I dont think the bears will give up too easily.
We'll see if the usd can fall some tonight or not.

Broadway, I've seen you mention volume quite a few times on this down move, from day 2 I think, but from what I have seen, you are looking at pointless volume, in small timeframes or even SYCOM volume.

The first decent potential stopping volume from a daily perspective was Friday night IMO.

Anyways, I will be out of ASF now for quite some time or perhaps permanently (other than the odd visit) to concentrate on my own trading, good luck all!

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Broadway, I've seen you mention volume quite a few times on this down move, from day 2 I think, but from what I have seen, you are looking at pointless volume, in small timeframes or even SYCOM volume.

The first decent potential stopping volume from a daily perspective was Friday night IMO.

Anyways, I will be out of ASF now for quite some time or perhaps permanently (other than the odd visit) to concentrate on my own trading, good luck all!

Ah bummer You're a handy forumian, all the best with your trading

 

[skyQuake]

That was a nice 40 odd tick bounce from the channel bot, anyone up for a break of 4470s sailing into the sunset?
Catalyst may be CBA tomorrow.

 

[nomore4s]

That was a nice 40 odd tick bounce from the channel bot, anyone up for a break of 4470s sailing into the sunset?
Catalyst may be CBA tomorrow.

Yeah got a couple of good trades off it, was looking for 4479 target but exited @ 4472

4479 still a possibility but I've finished trading for the day

Hoping CBA news is good, went long on it and BHP today, so fingers crossed.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

crap day for me, bought the tops, sold the bottoms, couldn't tell **** from clay

Then got dinged to DEATH in the afternoon from IBs stupid server resetting, which made me feel like knifing a kitten. :microwave

 

[johnnyg]

crap day for me, bought the tops, sold the bottoms,

Interesting Sam, looking at your blog you seemed to of done abit of ground work regarding the SPI but didn't take your stats into account?

Average range is currently around 48 points.

But no means having a dig, just curious as to why.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Interesting Sam, looking at your blog you seemed to of done abit of ground work regarding the SPI but didn't take your stats into account?

But no means having a dig, just curious as to why.

Spot on johnny

Why? Because its something I need to concentrate on, one of my faults is getting distracted, I get taken up with the moment when I'm trading and can make some silly decisions, then later I do my study and figure out the ranges etc

Kind of like 2 different people between when I'm in the heat of trading, and when I'm calm and calculating ranges, patterns etc. Remaining calm, patient and confident are most likely the differences between me and someone who knows how to trade

It annoys the crap out of me, everything is so clear and easy....well not "easy" but you know, more clear I guess when I'm not trading, and just watching, studying the market, and I feel like trading the most then. But when I am actually trading I tend to get taken up in the moment, thinking I'll miss opportunities and whatever, make foolish decisions.

Classic mistakes I guess

 

[Wysiwyg]

Kind of like 2 different people between when I'm in the heat of trading,

I do similar when live too. It all has to do with my fight or flight reaction. I have a predominantly fighter personality and when I get spiked out of a trade I get angry and try to dominate the market. Like open trades against trend as if I will turn the market, as if I determine the outcome.

Gotta learn to walk away for half hour and cool down. Wait for another set-up, look at other markets or stop all together.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Kind of like 2 different people between when I'm in the heat of trading, and when I'm calm and calculating ranges, patterns etc. Remaining calm, patient and confident are most likely the differences between me and someone who knows how to trade

Gotta learn to walk away for half hour and cool down. Wait for another set-up, look at other markets or stop all together.

That wont help. You make the mistake when you are in one state of mind then walk away and calm down to another state of mind. Then you go about "planing" in a rational mind what you are going to do and how you are going to handle it.

Problem arises when you run into the situation in the heat of battle your triggered into the "other" you, the fighter. Only way around it is to tackle it or at least recognise the state and learn to see what is triggering your Mr Hyde state. Then instead of making yourself go nuts trying to controlling it or just walking away, which is similar to sweeping it under the carpet, you have to learn how to "de-threat" the situation.

You can work on it in a calm state but ultimately you have to figure out how to work with it when the heat is on.

That's why I think the general BS about trading psychology is just that BS, trying to stay calm is denial.

 

[johnnyg]

Cheers for the reply Sam, keep up the good work with the blog too. Provides abit of Motivation for myself.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Cheers for the reply Sam, keep up the good work with the blog too. Provides abit of Motivation for myself.

Thanks alot johnny will do.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Problem arises when you run into the situation in the heat of battle your triggered into the "other" you, the fighter. Only way around it is to tackle it or at least recognise the state and learn to see what is triggering your Mr Hyde state. Then instead of making yourself go nuts trying to controlling it or just walking away, which is similar to sweeping it under the carpet, you have to learn how to "de-threat" the situation.

Thanks for your input Trembling Hand, much appreciated. What am I doing to address this? Well for a start I give CFD's a miss for awhile and stick to EOD stocks. I like to hold onto things for awhile too which I couldn't convert into with FX and cash Indices. Mostly experience required so I will get there.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Just on my attempts at backyard psychology,

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/trading-and-brain-trauma-and-amygdala.html

If that is true, then many of the self-help techniques that we read in the trading psychology literature may be not very helpful for traders dealing with exaggerated responses mediated by the amygdala. Writing in a journal, talking with a coach, or visualizing positive outcomes would not be sufficient for reprogramming traumatic responses and overcoming emotional reactivity and loss aversion.

This one is a good one. Goes to the heart of 1 person 2 traders thing I was talking about.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/06/from-problem-patterns-to-solutions.html

In short, fighting the pattern is a mistake. The challenge is to understand the function of the pattern and then rehearse a different way of satisfying this function. Instead of viewing the problem pattern as maladaptive, the brief therapist views it as a form of problem solving that no longer works for the individual.

 

[johnnyg]

Sounds like another hard day at the office Sam, however again going back to your blog

94% of those early high-down days occurred within 30 minutes of 10am, so from about 9:20 till 10:20, 30 minutes each side of 10am, is usually when the high will occur.

Looking at the Chart for the ASX 200 on the main ASF page your analysis was just about spot on again. I guess there was no way of knowing that the day was going to be a down day @ 10:30am, and with 2 heavy weights reporting could increase risk of fading the up moves.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Sounds like another hard day at the office Sam, however again going back to your blog



Looking at the Chart for the ASX 200 on the main ASF page your analysis was just about spot on again. I guess there was no way of knowing that the day was going to be a down day @ 10:30am, and with 2 heavy weights reporting could increase risk of fading the up moves.

Yeah, that analysis was only based off around 30 odd days I think it was as I said on my blog, so I'm not sure how accurate it is, and yes its hard to tell whether its going to be THE high or THE low at 10am, I guess if it breaks the low or high up until the present, then its probably going to continue in that direction.

Finding this stuff out and actually trading them are two very different things, for me anyway.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Just on my attempts at backyard psychology,



This one is a good one. Goes to the heart of 1 person 2 traders thing I was talking about.

Cheers for those TH. great posts

He often speaks about visualization techniques, have you tried this yourself? If so, has it had much effect?