SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[MS+Tradesim]

Does there HAVE to be a reason so badly? You guys seem hell bent on relating it to some news event is all.

Wasn't it mentioned around here that we were lagging behind aswell, so might be a bit of catch up in there if so. Good for those long anyway

Everything shot up, FX, futures, not just us, so something had to have started it and reinforced it across multiple markets otherwise I suspect it would have been arbed out quickly.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Of course there does. The market doesn't just shoot up in a straight line based on nothing at all.

I'm happy about it, everything turned green - but I would still like to know why!

Well obviously. But it seems kinda frantic around here to find a news event that happened around the same time and say "yep thats it, must have been".

Ooo look, my nanna cleaned the bathroom at the same time it made a new high, must be it!

But whatever floats your boat It was certainly a nice upmove.

 

[Timmy]

This?

Abu Dhabi Rescues Dubai With $10 Billion; Nakheel to Repay Bond

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFbBDktZXGWQ&pos=1

Certainly wouldn't have done any harm ...

 

[skc]

Well obviously. But it seems kinda frantic around here to find a news event that happened around the same time and say "yep thats it, must have been".

Ooo look, my nanna cleaned the bathroom at the same time it made a new high, must be it!

But whatever floats your boat It was certainly a nice upmove.

You have good valid point... a good technical trader probably doesn't need to know the reason for the move. He will just trade what is in front of him.

A discretionary trader however should probably know the reason in order to assess whether to join the rally or fade it.

Or, an in between trader will put in the long then look for the reason

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

You have good valid point... a good technical trader probably doesn't need to know the reason for the move. He will just trade what is in front of him.

A discretionary trader however should probably know the reason in order to assess whether to join the rally or fade it.

Or, an in between trader will put in the long then look for the reason

Haha true. So theres only good technical traders or in-between traders here, as the "reason" wasn't found out till the end of the day

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Is today really good for trading or is my flu getting worse? Some great action this morning!

 

[skc]

It's expiry today for the Dec contract so pretty wild trading in the morning.

Would anyone with knowledge like to explain what kind of things happen on expiry? I roughly know people are squaring their arbitrage or rolling contracts over, but unsure how that affect prices.

Did that cause the SPI Mar contract to fall so badly in the morning?
Did that cause the next 80 odd points up (I thought may be NAB/AXA has more to do with that)?
Does this happen a lot on expiry?

TIA

 

[Broadway]

It's expiry today for the Dec contract so pretty wild trading in the morning.

Would anyone with knowledge like to explain what kind of things happen on expiry? I roughly know people are squaring their arbitrage or rolling contracts over, but unsure how that affect prices.

Did that cause the SPI Mar contract to fall so badly in the morning?
Did that cause the next 80 odd points up (I thought may be NAB/AXA has more to do with that)?
Does this happen a lot on expiry?

TIA

Ive seen other expirys that were fairly quiet, so Im not sure if the rollover is contributing to the volatility.
I was personally thinking longs today because oil and copper were up last night, so luckily grabbed some of that rally.
But theres a few influences today, fomc and NAB and the usd rally and AUD fall, as well as yesterdays low aussie GDP.
Tricky day imo. Good to see a larger range day.

 

[skyQuake]

Ive seen other expirys that were fairly quiet, so Im not sure if the rollover is contributing to the volatility.
I was personally thinking longs today because oil and copper were up last night, so luckily grabbed some of that rally.
But theres a few influences today, fomc and NAB and the usd rally and AUD fall, as well as yesterdays low aussie GDP.
Tricky day imo. Good to see a larger range day.

Same, this coumpled with the NAB bid should have sent us a lot higher. However massive AUD selling was probably to blame. It went down 100 pips, Euro tanked against the USD too so that probably worried o/s hedge funds. (or it was them bailing)

 

[GMS]

SKC,

This is my tenth year as a futures client advisor, and I've seen it all, over the years when it comes to the SPI200 expiry. More often than not there is a great deal of volatility and wild fluctuations.


If your trading style isn't suited to this level of volatility its best to sit on the sideline on expiry morning. Even the big players prefer to take conservative positions on expiry.

Cheers.

 

[skc]

Thank you gents...

My SPI trading style is close to non-existent. I play around with a $1K account doing $2 per point just to learn about it. Slightly more engaging than paper trading...

If it was hedge fund bailing out Aussie equities I suppose they could short the SPI first and square off their equities in the new year when more liquidity return?

 

[cutz]

It's expiry today for the Dec contract so pretty wild trading in the morning.

Quite a few things expired today, along with the Dec SPI contracts, index options and stock options also expired today, an unusual event.

 

[skc]

What's with those 250/300 lots at the current level? Are they spoofs or for real?

They tried to defend 4915 before and failed.

 

[Trembling Hand]

What's with those 250/300 lots at the current level? Are they spoofs or for real?

They tried to defend 4915 before and failed.

So far they are the real thing. Whether or not they take the full heat or not time will tell.

At a guess you would say Its someone from the top end of town holding the down side to get a technical breakout on any push up in the next week. Livermore style

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

How do you determine if its real or a spoof? Are you guys referring to the 200-300+ lots on the bid?

Holding the downside TH? As in holding the price at this level, accumulating for a break to the upside?

Just making sure I'm following

 

[Trembling Hand]

Holding the downside TH? As in holding the price at this level, accumulating for a break to the upside?

I wouldn't say accumulating at these levels just defending these levels to help any chance of a tech break soon.

 

[lukeaye]

I wouldn't say accumulating at these levels just defending these levels to help any chance of a tech break soon.

I dont have access to market depth atm, could you tell me what level has this lot size bid

 

[Broadway]

It was around 4605 on the spi, held for ages then failed, or that pro pulled his bid after about 1/2 got absorbed.

Those sort of stubborn dom numbers lead to a rally last 2 times in 24hrs, but im nervous about this one.

 

[lukeaye]

It was around 4605 on the spi, held for ages then failed, or that pro pulled his bid after about 1/2 got absorbed.

Those sort of stubborn dom numbers lead to a rally last 2 times in 24hrs, but im nervous about this one.

To my way of thinking, and correct me if im wrong, but If i have say 250 contracts on the bid, at a lower price then current market, im trying to defend lower prices. So whoever it was looks like they were bluffing DOM to try and force prices higher?

 

[Broadway]

To my way of thinking, and correct me if im wrong, but If i have say 250 contracts on the bid, at a lower price then current market, im trying to defend lower prices. So whoever it was looks like they were bluffing DOM to try and force prices higher?

Personally, a bluffer is a high dom number that flickers around between slots, and disappears when price moves towards it.

This was a little different, it held in its slot stubbornly for a while and absorbed contracts coming to it. So the trader actually took longs and quite a few of them before eventually getting out of the way.

Interestingly, the ES did rally 7-10 points last night and there were other hints in asia it would, but the spi lagged behind, I think because copper fell most of the night. The spi ended up at 4908, and the trader was absorbing at 4906. But no doubting that trader will likely take some profits at 50-100 up sometime in the next fortnight. I imagine guys like that are rarely wrong.

So its true to say he was defending, but willing to put his money where his mouth was as well.