SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[Trembling Hand]

hey TH....quick question....do you do market orders or limit? noticed before you said about the bracket order...you got this set automatically with booktrader? would have thought it would take too long otherwise to fiddle around with that stuff whilst scalping?

Never do market orders. They are toxic to profitability FULL STOP.:frown:

Yep bracket orders are auto.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Never do market orders. They are toxic to profitability FULL STOP.:frown:

Yep bracket orders are auto.

wow..you got the limit order set to an automatic distance from the mkt or you enter it manually each time with auto stop/tp? how fast do you wanna be!?

...I have been using mkt orders, still trying to get my head around all the stuff one can do in booktrader, making your own buttons etc with auto everything...thanks btw

 

[Mr J]

Auto settings are a complete pain in booktrader if you're trading multiple markets.

I'll often enter on a stop limit order, exit on a limit when I can, but often get stopped out first (I move it up aggressively).

 

[Trembling Hand]

Auto settings are a complete pain in booktrader if you're trading multiple markets.

Booktraders is useless not only if you trade say HSI and STW becasue of the points diff but also if you trade more than 1 contract.

I use ninja trader. Massively more customisable. Have a look,

 

[MRC & Co]

LOL!!

Another one of those 400 tick HSI sweeps in an instant. Friggin bracket orders taking 30 when there is 400 on offer

Yeh, looks like some panic in Asia today (well yesterday now it's past midnight). They sold it off on Monday in anticipation of a break down, then they got owned over-night and panicked out with strong expectations of Goldman (even poor ZEW and industrial production from Europe wouldn't keep the markets down).

But we ended with a buy the rumour sell the fact situation. Poor Asian instos are getting spun on their heads in this chop by the looks.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Yeh, looks like some panic in Asia today (well yesterday now it's past midnight). They sold it off on Monday in anticipation of a break down, then they got owned over-night and panicked out with strong expectations of Goldman (even poor ZEW and industrial production from Europe wouldn't keep the.

I think its got more to do with the correctly position pushing everyone off side. I mean who the hell would hit at market on a 1000 lot just to cover?? And that was what they were!!!!

They pretty much happen around the month high/lows, where all the stops are to farm. Todays was unusual but still it pushed the shorts over the 5 day high and mid month level. sure woulda hurt if you were short!!:angry:

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, my guess would be a panick out and it caused stops to be triggered.

But you may be right, it may have just been stop searching. If so though, I have a feeling it would have traded downwards after settling, not back up.....

 

[Edwood]

speaking of spikes intc just caused a Dow spike to 8800 with IG & high 8700's with CMC after the close. intc results exceeded expectations. perhaps the focus was put on GS news as a smokescreen for the main event

 

[Trembling Hand]

This still looks pretty bearish to me.

Did some calcs, doesn't seem to be 30pts worth of divs. Not sure wuts going on lol

Whatever its from (SPI v XJO diff) its not much of a leading indicator. Not this time

 

[skyQuake]

Whatever its from (SPI v XJO diff) its not much of a leading indicator. Not this time

rofl... you would have been pretty burnt looking at that indicator!

False brk down then sharp rally up

 

[skyQuake]

Also, is anyone else worried about that gap @ 3800?

 

[skc]

Also, is anyone else worried about that gap @ 3800?

Some bad China GDP data and we will be there this afternoon!

China may fudge their data to get better iron ore prices... who knows.

 

[skyQuake]

Some chinese reports are already coming out +7.9 as opposed to +7.8

Also my contact in china (read: fisherman on the yangtze) thinks its a lot higher

 

[Chris45]

Whatever its from (SPI v XJO diff) its not much of a leading indicator. Not this time

Certainly not for short term day traders, the bears got burnt! Maybe a different story for long term investors.

The recent rise is similar to the one in early June, but since 12-June, XJO volume has been declining and today the SPI is still trading at a significant discount to the XJO.

What's your explanation for that?

 

[skyQuake]

Certainly not for short term day traders, the bears got burnt! Maybe a different story for long term investors.

The recent rise is similar to the one in early June, but since 12-June, XJO volume has been declining and today the SPI is still trading at a significant discount to the XJO.

What's your explanation for that?

Divs, capital returns, kinda of balances out.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Certainly not for short term day traders, the bears got burnt! Maybe a different story for long term investors.

I think you have that completely the wrong way round mate. A daytrader wouldn't give a toss. Its the long term holders that it has off sided. The bears are all but 1 or 2 days of the last 9 months are now taking it in the neck.

The recent rise is similar to the one in early June, but since 12-June, XJO volume has been declining

The volume picked up from Jan this year peaking at the end of June. A two week drop is hardly significant and if it was its still contradicting you. Its been a low volume pull back.

today the SPI is still trading at a significant discount to the XJO.

What's your explanation for that?

Bit of confirmation bias here I think. We have given the MOST plausible explanation for the discount, divs & cap raising, but looks like you want to ignore that.

Maybe the open today will be the high for the next year, its possible, just don't think that your lower SPI to the XJO would be the reason considering the other explanations. A bit of the throwing a virgin in the volcano effect if a new bear starts today.

IMO.

Whats your?

 

[Chris45]

A daytrader wouldn't give a toss.

Fair enough. Maybe "short term day traders" wasn't the correct term. I was just going by the number of posts I've read recently elsewhere by people looking to go short and presumably then being stopped out. I'm not a day trader.

I didn't quite understand skyQuake's explanation of the SPI discount re dividends and capital raising, so could you please expand on that?

And, what's your view of market direction over the next few months? Are you of the opinion that March was the bottom and we are now in a new bull market? If so, how high do you think this current move will go before we see a significant retracement?

For what it's worth (probably 0) this current upmove seems to me to be running out of steam and may peak at around 4150-70.

Then again, we could be in a move similar to that in May-88 which could rise to 4650ish.

What do you think?

 

[Trembling Hand]

I didn't quite understand skyQuake's explanation of the SPI discount re dividends and capital raising, so could you please expand on that?

If you are going to use an indicator would it not be a good idea to find out what the hell it is and how it works??

Futs don't pay divs the index does. Shares in the index will go ex-div bringing down the value of the index as the three months pass to align with the futs, by late Sep they will be the same.

Been bullish since early March. Not so bullish now but not yet Bearish.

 

[skyQuake]

I think after today's performance it should be shut down for good.

For crying out loud Night SPI is almost better than this...

 

[Chris45]

If you are going to use an indicator would it not be a good idea to find out what the hell it is and how it works??

Wow! What an angry sounding reply. Sorry for daring to speak.