SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[moXJO]

Do cup and handle patterns still qualify on intra?

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

You're adding to a losing position Ivan?

 

[Edwood]

Worth crackin a beer today rather than trading the SPI, it was another joke.

lol & why not too, its Friday after all Looking like its nearly cooked, just waiting for the tender time to pop

 

[Cartman]

You're adding to a losing position Ivan?

Hey Sam --- not gona answer for Ivan as such, but its only a losing position when u r fully scaled in and yr stop gets hit ---- until that point u r simply buying/selling better value positions (assuming your analysis is correct of course lol --- )

position sizing and scaling are a match made in heaven for savvy punters

 

[Chris45]

Isn't there a charting rule that says "old support becomes new resistance" or something like that? It will be interesting to see what happens now.

 

[skyQuake]

*gets into bear suit*

Question now is test and fail or false break and fail

 

[MichaelD]

Isn't there a charting rule that says "old support becomes new resistance" or something like that? It will be interesting to see what happens now.

Why? All you have shown is a curve fitted line which by pure chance looks significant.

I've taken exactly the same chart and drawn a line which touches just as many data points as your line which "tells" an entirely different story.

(Not having a go at you - just offering a different perspective.)

 

[Edwood]

Isn't there a charting rule that says "old support becomes new resistance" or something like that? It will be interesting to see what happens now.

good spot Chris, always useful to see what the bigger picture shows

 

[Chris45]

I've taken exactly the same chart and drawn a line which touches just as many data points as your line which "tells" an entirely different story.

Michael, your line illustrates my point perfectly. (BTW, observe how parallel those two lines are - is that just coincidence?) These "lines" are not always perfect but your line effectively picked the lows during wave 3 and look what happened after we broke through your line in late '02. Support became resistance and we went down to the wave 4 Iraq War low which started the best wave 5 since the '82-'87 wave 5. My line connects the '91 corrective wave c with the '92 start of wave 1 and the '03 start of wave 5 so perhaps we will see a repeat of that now - one final spike down to complete this bear market and give us a perfect opportunity to go long with our ears pinned back. Then again ... maybe not, who knows? (Sorry about bringing Ralph's stuff into the discussion for all of you non-believers

 

[Chris45]

My Posting Rules say "You may edit your posts" so where's the Edit button when I need it?
Please ignore the stupid : in my last post and apologies to anyone who was offended.

 

[drsmith]

I think you have 20 minutes to edit a post.

EDIT:
My bumpluck prediction is that it will drift south again soon, perhaps from sometime in July.

 

[Rockon2]

The Old Trend line break from the 9th, "Hey chief" ( Thanks to Don Adams)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykxfwjm8nAE&feature=related

 

[Mr J]

The trendline has acted as support, but the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.

 

[Trembling Hand]

The trendline has acted as support, but the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.

Yes interesting times. I held some puts on Friday arvo for the first time since about Jan 08!!

Closed them on the close this arvo But wouldn't be surprised to see a break come Thursday. V.interesting point we are at. IMO

May have to change my "Stronger forever" tag

 

[Cartman]

the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.

agree ---- if i were holding short (which im not) in profit id be taking it b4 the middle of next week and re- entering around 15-16 July if it shapes up ok ---- we havent even seen a decent failed double top yet for this cycle !! ---

--- if we hit new highs after the end of July i'll be even more confused than normal :dimbulb: lol -----

now back to the important stuff like the next pivot high and subsequent low of the EUR/USD --- very interesting position

 

[Rockon2]

The trendline has acted as support, but the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.

Hi Mr J ,, The original chart (same) posted was on the 12th June. and it was
in answer to a query from the live chat platform run by Ausie stock forums.
It was the only place i could stick a chart up quick at the time. and post the link into the chat room....

It is a 5 min chart,, and yes to me it was a sig to short, and i'm happy with the sell off thats occured.. $$

You are correct that in the longer term it means nothing..

 

[Mr J]

The problem with pretty much every chart is that it tells more than one story, so there's almost always more than one right answer, provided it is traded properly. There's the trendline break, the sell of a major pullback a little earlier, the possibility of a run to new highs a little later, the many smaller waves in between, and the smaller and larger waves that we can't see on that chart.

if we hit new highs after the end of July i'll be even more confused than normal

I won't be confused, only because I don't even bother to think about it any longer. I don't really care why it moves, just as long as it moves. Like a croc waiting for the wildebeest to cross the river.

 

[Real1ty]

I don't really care why it moves, just as long as it moves.

Bingo!!

 

[Chris45]

Going down! It will be interesting to see if we get any trendline support at about 3780 on 22-23 June. If 4084 was the top we should punch through it and start heading lower. (Play the *suspense music*.)

 

[MRC & Co]

Contract Rollover = unusual price action.