Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

and the one I am trading is a pullback to 3720, or maybe 3850 if this goes poorly.

Ivan, do you really think 3650 or 3750 is "retesting the lows"? i would consider 3300 a retest of the "lows". 3650 or 3750 would merely be retracements.
 
Ivan,

based on the S&P price action Yesterday and so far today:- first time in
6 days that there has been a break of intraday support, which could
see prices back down into 917 over the next two days, you should
hopefully do ok.

As long as price remains below 939 today.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
 

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Ivan, do you really think 3650 or 3750 is "retesting the lows"? i would consider 3300 a retest of the "lows". 3650 or 3750 would merely be retracements.


I think it depends which low you are referring to. The "lows" or THE low. :D

3720-50 would be testing the most recent lows.
 
Ivan, do you really think 3650 or 3750 is "retesting the lows"? i would consider 3300 a retest of the "lows". 3650 or 3750 would merely be retracements.

When i say retest the lows, I mean 3100. Just not now. I try keep my trades for less than 2 weeks most of the time. The 3100 is not going to come in a straight line, and I don't intend to play it in a straight line. There is a lot of time before October

Ivan,

based on the S&P price action Yesterday and so far today:- first time in
6 days that there has been a break of intraday support, which could
see prices back down into 917 over the next two days, you should
hopefully do ok.

As long as price remains below 939 today.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Nice chart :) I was hoping it would pull under 930 today. Yesterday's action was very interesting. It started off so well, and then the market faded. Often, if a big move in the US is followed by a flat day, it can symbolize a volatile day the following session. Will see how it plays out today. Won't call it that volatile at the moment. Then again VIX is up 3% at open
 
a nice lil short ......... right about ...............................here?

oops better add a number

942.20


for the record this is not a trade as such just an observation


lol of all the calls to get right and i didnt even back it :D

back to stopout trades and hoolahoops i guess
 
LOL re cops .the trick is to get yaself a decoy :D blame everything on them

sweet --- i knew the wife would come in handy one day !! --- "bugga" --- where did she come from :nosympath

interesting mini rally on the DX as i type --- looks suspiciously like the start of a bottoming formation ;)

a

Oh and lastly, my trade comes together on one event. I am bullish the USD as it has come down rapidly

more interest coming in off that last low on the USD --- ive taken my bear suit off but my bull suit is still at the dry cleaners --- if we get a higher low on the next down cycle a flight to Pamplona might be worth a stab ;) --- certainly making your short look a bit healthier IVE. good luck... 2morrow night session should tell a better story.
 
Just noticed IB lowered the margin requirements. They state 5k initial and 4k for maintenance, I assume that means 5k to open the trade, and 4k to let it run? Or 5k at the start of the session? No idea.
 
Well done on your trade last night Mr J,:)

Are you going to ride this one or have you already closed out ?


BTW, not sure about futures but for options initial is amount required to open, maintenance is the overnight.
 
more interest coming in off that last low on the USD --- ive taken my bear suit off but my bull suit is still at the dry cleaners --- if we get a higher low on the next down cycle a flight to Pamplona might be worth a stab ;) --- certainly making your short look a bit healthier IVE. good luck... 2morrow night session should tell a better story.

Yes, I am short-term bullish USD and bearish commodities as of yesterday ASIA close, reasons, meetings in China are garnering a positive perception and the buying into HUMMER and Morgan Stanley are clear signals to the market. Not to mention, the USD has been over-cooked in the short-term.

What will this mean? Probably that currency hedges from international speculative capital into the US will be taken off, giving the USD more upward momentum, probably some support for US Treasuries, but what for equities? It is the only area I am still unsure upon.

Don't think the currency movements will make much impact, but will stronger US Treasuries give faith of further liquidity and hence an appreciation in global equity markets with the correction only coming in commodities, or will we see a pull-out of equities too in favour of financial assets?
 
Just noticed IB lowered the margin requirements. They state 5k initial and 4k for maintenance, I assume that means 5k to open the trade, and 4k to let it run? Or 5k at the start of the session? No idea.

Pretty sure it's the former.

Keep in mind the overnight margin requirements are doubled for initial/maintenance respectively.
 
Well done on your trade last night Mr J,:)

Are you going to ride this one or have you already closed out ?

No, that trade got stopped out very quickly. I shorted about 30 points before the it turned, well past my stop (which was 4 points as usual).
 
One down day and all the sudden people are talking about a retest of lows. The momentum of the market is still clearly pointing one way.
 
One down day and all the sudden people are talking about a retest of lows. The momentum of the market is still clearly pointing one way.

See those little curly things on the end of my sentences, they are called question marks ;)

Wasn't saying its going to re-test the lows, I was wondering what the thousand different opinions are on here. I won't be making any claims, I just find this place entertaining :D
 
See those little curly things on the end of my sentences, they are called question marks ;)

Wasn't saying its going to re-test the lows, I was wondering what the thousand different opinions are on here. I won't be making any claims, I just find this place entertaining :D

Haha, sorry I got ahead of myself and didn't bother looking at the last character in the sentence, my bad :p:

For what it is worth I was not too bothered by today. The US drop last night wasn't very convincing (look at the volumes accompanying it). Another day like this however and then I might start look for possible retracement zones.
 
Yes, I am short-term bullish USD and bearish commodities as of yesterday ASIA close,

Don't think the currency movements will make much impact, but will stronger US Treasuries give faith of further liquidity and hence an appreciation in global equity markets with the correction only coming in commodities, or will we see a pull-out of equities too in favour of financial assets?

howdy Mirc,

the USD still has a bit of leg work to do to prove up a reversal eh! ---- the last rally had a bit of positivity about it though ---- still need to see a proven double bottom over a coupla days to get interested

ps a short term long would be interesting at a retrace to 3950 (24 hr trade) --- a short ONLY after that retrace would be interesting at a failure of the previous high (currently around 4030) ---
One down day and all the sudden people are talking about a retest of lows. The momentum of the market is still clearly pointing one way.

point is taken Sam ------ currently around that 3950 (short term long trade scenario) ----- the last high needs to be tested and fail b4 shorts become viable imho
 
Got to love the volume on the ES. If I start trading a decent size for an independent trader, it's going to be tempting to relocate to a more US-friendly timezone.
 
Got to love the volume on the ES. If I start trading a decent size for an independent trader, it's going to be tempting to relocate to a more US-friendly timezone.

Yes, I have just started trading the US market, and there are some great percentage moves. The time difference is killing me though:crap:
 
Yes, I have just started trading the US market, and there are some great percentage moves. The time difference is killing me though:crap:

European opens are a good alternative moX, usually enough movement in the first 90 mins and timing fits better for our side of the world
 
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