Speculative Stock Portfolio

[Skate]

I bought a parcel of Crowd Mobile Ltd (CM8) on Friday and just didn't get time to update the portfolio as I had a pretty full on weekend. Will try and do a quick update on that during the week...

Hi aus_trader

Quick question: Is commission drag a consideration when compiling your portfolio?

Skate.

 

[aus_trader]

Hi aus_trader

Quick question: Is commission drag a consideration when compiling your portfolio?

Skate.

Yes Commission does play a part especially when the parcels are close to the min qty. However it has come down considerably since the days when the best you could find was like $30 each for buy and sell. Nowadays it's more like a third of that with the added frequent trader discounts etc.

 

[aus_trader]

Got a bit of time to update the portfolio with Last Friday's stock. The stock is Crowd Mobile Ltd (CM8) and it's a tech firm that has products/services for the younger tech savvy generation and has growing revenues. It has been steadily reducing it's debt as well so in my opinion in a good position to prosper and grow...

Also I applied/paid for the BRU entitlement so will update the table once the shares are allocated...

 

[aus_trader]

Sold LNG today. Although it's a loss, it's been a good lesson. I bought LNG based on the big news that came out with the funding for it's Magnolia project. But after the initial excitement with gap up in price surge, LNG has been slowly falling away. As I am looking at limiting my losses a little more aggressively, perhaps I held on to LNG a bit too long. Oh well, better late than never...

Going forward, I will monitor and wait to see what happens after a major news releases like these, rather than jumping into the initial excitement...

Closed Positions:

 

[tech/a]

Buy the rumour
Sell the fact.

If stock belt ahead and stall
Without developing a continuation pattern
Chances are it's over.
This is an advantage of understanding what a chart looks like
If
It's remaining bullish
Turning up or down
Remaining bearish
Consolidating to continue---- accumulating
Consolidating to reverse ---- distributing

The chart answers a lot of questions every day.

 

[aus_trader]

Buy the rumour
Sell the fact.

If stock belt ahead and stall
Without developing a continuation pattern
Chances are it's over.
This is an advantage of understanding what a chart looks like
If
It's remaining bullish
Turning up or down
Remaining bearish
Consolidating to continue---- accumulating
Consolidating to reverse ---- distributing

The chart answers a lot of questions every day.

Good Points Tech/a, I'll be looking at the charts to get some confirmation before immediately jumping into any news releases going forward...

 

[aus_trader]

Bought a stock in the Financial/Technology space for this portfolio. The stock is zipMoney Ltd (ZML) and I've been watching it for a few weeks since it gapped up on huge volume on 7th of August. Turns out that it was due to a big news announcement where one of the big four banks, Westpac has bought a stake in the company. So rather than jumping in to buy the stock I've been watching it to see how it reacts after the initial price surge.

zipMoney operates in the online retail lending space and this area is expected to grow as it offers convenience for online purchases with credit. With the investment in zipMoney, it looks like Westpac also thinks the company has good fortunes going forward...

 

[misinformd]

NUH seems to have turned a corner after BT antenna issue.

 

[aus_trader]

NUH seems to have turned a corner after BT antenna issue.

Looks like a tech stock with potential... I will check it out and monitor. Thanks for the tip.

 

[aus_trader]

Bought a stock to get more exposure into Rare Earths (RE) story that's taking place. But first a couple of updates on the existing stocks in the portfolio...

I noticed the BRU entitlement shares have been allocated since my holding has increased in my account. Not sure exactly which date they appeared in my account so I will put today's date as purchase date.

Also with the last stock that was added to the portfolio (ZML), I was tempted to jump on the news which alerted me to that stock. Banks (especially the majors) have a whole team or a department of investment managers who make the decisions as to where to invest money, so they wouldn't throw money away generally. So the news is quite significant in my opinion. See the cutout section from their company presentation below:



But by not jumping in I did get to buy them at a lower price rather than paying above 80c on the day the big news was released.

Neometals Ltd (NMT) which is mainly a Lithium play is making progress with it's Titanium extraction which is creating some excitement.

As I mentioned when buying ALK, Rare Earth stocks seems to be on the move. The two I mentioned were ARU and NTU. Since ALK is Gold/RE play, I wanted to get more of a pure play RE stock on the portfolio. So I looked at the information on each of them.

From what I could find NTU has that little X-factor that could make it a stand out amongst the RE plays on the ASX and there are quite a few juniors that are not mentioned here. The reason is Northern Mineral's Browns Range deposit has a good % of Dysprosium and larger proportion of heavier RE's which tend to be more valuable. I also read in a recent news headline about NTU is to become a significant Dysprosium producer outside China. So I bought a parcel of Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU) shares for speculating on RE's.

 

[aus_trader]

CLQ seems to be finding a lot of resistance around it's old high around that $1.15 levels. It may break above it and go higher but I thought to take partial profits at current levels as it is retracing. So sold half the position this morning.

Closed Positions:

 

[aus_trader]

Probably should've sold a little earlier to reduce losses but prices fell through quickly and I was chasing it down to get a better price the last few days for UTR. Anyway finally got out and I will watch this stock going forward as it may make further progress with it's technology and I may have another go at it...

Closed Positions:

 

[Adrian.]

Hi Aus_Tradrer,

Great thread and gives me some companies to look at. I'm not a trader or chartist though...

You may be interested in CIO, CR8 or KNM.

CIO - Lots of purchase orders being announced for it M2M routers, is in a trading halt as a capital raising is being negotiated.

CR8 - A fair few large companies are in paid trials of their AI chatbot software for selling insurance. Just completed a cap raising.

KNM - Already had a very good run but is kicking goals in NY public school system with their educational software for special needs students. Hopefully they can expand to other public school systems.

 

[aus_trader]

Hi Aus_Tradrer,

Great thread and gives me some companies to look at. I'm not a trader or chartist though...

You may be interested in CIO, CR8 or KNM.

CIO - Lots of purchase orders being announced for it M2M routers, is in a trading halt as a capital raising is being negotiated.

CR8 - A fair few large companies are in paid trials of their AI chatbot software for selling insurance. Just completed a cap raising.

KNM - Already had a very good run but is kicking goals in NY public school system with their educational software for special needs students. Hopefully they can expand to other public school systems.

Thanks for the tips. I will take a further look at these companies...

 

[aus_trader]

The recently added stocks ZipMoney Ltd (ZML) and Alkane Resources Ltd (ALK) was sold today to limit losses.

Closed Positions:

 

[aus_trader]

I only purchase a stock based on a tip if it really ticks the boxes and has a good story to it these days. Few days ago Adrian. has posted tips on 3 companies and I had the time to look at each briefly. CIO was in a Trading Holt at the time due to a capital raise as mentioned by him, but the story of the company interested me. Here is a few notes I made about CIO:

• Wireless technology innovator operating in the IOT(Internet-Of-Things) space, specialises in M2M (Machine-2-Machine) connectivity
• Expanding relationships with Network providers including big American firms such as Verizon and AT&T
• Good sales growth
• Current uses include vending machines, backup systems for critical missions such as Paramedic, airport security camera systems etc. Winning new contracts so could expand into other devices/areas as technology innovation continue
• The $3m over-subscribed capital raising just completed gives them cash to operate and spend into R&D/sales for the medium term

So Connected IO Ltd (CIO) was bought in this speculative space.

Things has not been easy in this portfolio and I guess I didn't expect a walk in the park when I started this speculative portfolio either. However now that I have racked up a good number of losses in the closed positions of this portfolio, I am determined to pour more time and effort into doing better research into companies I buy as well as managing the positions.

 

[tech/a]

Company analysis in a speculative portfolio will be of zero benefit particularly if your not holding for months or years.
Analysis of momentum---when it starts,looks like continuing, and stalling or stopping
Will!

 

[aus_trader]

Company analysis in a speculative portfolio will be of zero benefit particularly if your not holding for months or years.
Analysis of momentum---when it starts,looks like continuing, and stalling or stopping
Will!

Not sure how to measure/quantify it but I thought there was a bit of price momentum with some of the stocks bought such as ALK, UTR with good volumes being traded at the time of buying. It (momentum) hasn't continued though... Just my thoughts.

 

[Adrian.]

So Connected IO Ltd (CIO) was bought in this speculative space.

Things has not been easy in this portfolio and I guess I didn't expect a walk in the park when I started this speculative portfolio either. However now that I have racked up a good number of losses in the closed positions of this portfolio, I am determined to pour more time and effort into doing better research into companies I buy as well as managing the positions.

Glad you got something out of the tips

Maybe part of your initial research should be identifying a catalyst and giving a timeframe for the catalyst to be achieved as well as putting a stop loss in place.

e.g CIO has been significantly growing revenue so you could give them 12 months to reach a cash flow positive state with a 20% stop loss. They have been burning about $1 mil a quarter but received purchase orders for approx. $2 mil in the Sep quarter (not sure which quarter the revenue will come into though.) This gives them time to ramp up production/marketing/sales and grow their revenue to cover the extra costs.

I agree with tech/a that with speccy stocks you need to give them time and also be ready for 10% falls in the price. It's risky but that is what a spec investment is meant to be.

Good luck!

 

[aus_trader]

Glad you got something out of the tips

Maybe part of your initial research should be identifying a catalyst and giving a timeframe for the catalyst to be achieved as well as putting a stop loss in place.

e.g CIO has been significantly growing revenue so you could give them 12 months to reach a cash flow positive state with a 20% stop loss. They have been burning about $1 mil a quarter but received purchase orders for approx. $2 mil in the Sep quarter (not sure which quarter the revenue will come into though.) This gives them time to ramp up production/marketing/sales and grow their revenue to cover the extra costs.

I agree with tech/a that with speccy stocks you need to give them time and also be ready for 10% falls in the price. It's risky but that is what a spec investment is meant to be.

Good luck!

Yes, the company fundamentals that I have mentioned is the catalyst for buying. I also think having the capital raised gives them time to ramp up growth as you've said. Let's see how it progresses...