Speculative Stock Portfolio

[Joules MM1]

@tech/a re-engage ....go on

brought popcorn for this one

 

[Ann]

@tech/a re-engage ....go on

brought popcorn for this one

Joules I have long ago realized Tech/a has a totally closed mind about a lot of aspects of charting and it is actually a futile exercise talking to him, it feels like one step away from talking to a TA 'denier'!

A 21 day M/A is 21 periods or a month--This is the only significance it has.
Hardly anyone looks at M/A's let alone the specific one you have chosen (No
matter who that who is).

All an M/A is is a line drawn from the closing price over X periods, nothing more and nothing less. It is a daily record of what HAPPENED to price
it has absolutely no predictive qualities.

 

[Joules MM1]

default chart settings have "n" periods x price width auto correct or auto print for whatever you designate to view the price history in

it is clear (to me and i can only speak from my own observations) to that this provides no advantage to have a weekly bar chart with daily m/a xovers or vice versa

at best crossovers are a permission to do something, they offer a "off-the-hook" moment to relieve the trader from the responsibility of decisions based on the lack of experience (or knowledge) of the price action or lack of data or both

m/a's lag ..., they are not current to the pricing...end of convo on that one!

this does not mean that they are not a valuable tool but it needs complete discipline, or, if you like enslavement to the process....this serves to take your eyes way-from, stops the trader-from, learning or receiving the signals from the most upto date data youre actually acting on - price

the simplest and best and highest probable use of a m/a crossover i have seen used is a 17/38 as the trigger when the prior swing level is taken out - in other words when the previous swing high level is taken out and viewed as a breakout then the trade is taken on the xover and the stop placed at the start of that price action (this would be for a long after a rotation from a larger downswing)

 

[tech/a]

Most who attempt to use T/A as a trading tool are impressed with Oscillators.
They can look at a past chart and see how perfectly the oscillators performed
on the chart. Oscillators look great in hind site. Use them real time and youll
soon stop using them if your trading with your own hard earned.

Its pretty obvious that those who dont trade technically are in this phase purely
by how they post one classic of late is

So much fun, I love this stuff.

m/a's lag ..., they are not current to the pricing...end of convo on that one!

So when you see this---BELOW.

I am currently re-writing my trading plan from a long term investor of buy and hold to a shorter term trader of buy in/close out at a certain point according to my plan (still being written).

This is certainly one indicator I am planning to use for short term trading.

You know!
Why would you (ANN) divest from nearly 100% win performance ratio to Re writing your long term trading plan AND going to a shorter term trader?????

There is a long way from theory to practice.

So W
DONT USE M/A's IN YOUR SHORT TERM SPECULATIVE STOCK TRADING.

 

[Ann]

Tech/a, feel free not to use those silly little oscillators and MAs on your charts!

I think I will stick with them, I have used them very successfully for the last 17 years.

Why would you (ANN) divest from nearly 100% win performance ratio to Re writing your long term trading plan AND going to a shorter term trader?????

I am not re-writing my long term plan, I am writing an entirely new short term plan. I have the time to devote to the charts that I didn't have before. If I can't achieve a short term plan of at least 80% to 90% success rate then I will just chuck the idea in and go back to long term.

 

[willoneau]

Pretty much sums up my way of thinking as well.

The 20% index drop would be used to exit any "still remaining" positions that haven't been closed out using stop losses etc. Keep only what you wish to hold longer term e.g. a defensive stock that usually goes up in bear markets or gold related investments that you wish to not sell out of.

Getting back is not a sudden buy back with a 20% rise. That would be a very late entry. Start slow as the market rises and buy a few positions and only add more positions once market makes higher prices to keep exposure to a minimum during a bear market temporary rally.

Check your charts you might find 20% drops as corrections then the market turns and continues .Using it to close might not be good strategy, but rather tightening stops or changing your trailing system might be better.

 

[willoneau]

I use a SMA as a filter only because i want the lag

 

[Ann]

I use a SMA as a filter only because i want the lag

I have only started to look really closely at them today but to me it looks like the SMA actually moves faster than the EMA. I was looking at the two of them on APT set on both weekly and daily.

 

[tech/a]

Google how each M/A is calculated
It will go a long way to explaining how they compare on a chart.

Ann there is no evidence you have done
very well using oscillators

You refuse to post 5 charts to support your claim.

So until you do I’ll put up a grand to
Joe if ANYONE can show 10 trades using oscillators that Win 9 from 10 trades long term say over 6 mths
90% as you stated Ann —- it was near 100% . In real time

There is a challenge
Go for it——anyone

 

[willoneau]

I have only started to look really closely at them today but to me it looks like the SMA actually moves faster than the EMA. I was looking at the two of them on APT set on both weekly and daily.

the EMA reacts quicker because it is weighed more towards more recent bars

 

[willoneau]

Excellent response to the question too Zaxon. I think moving averages and other indicators are warning signs and could be used to manage individual stock positions. The 20% drop on the index is the last line of defence for deciding drastic action such as portfolio liquidation. I am putting a plan together along these lines to avoid the pain experienced during the GFC. The lessons learnt from GFC should not be forgotten otherwise I will make the same mistakes again next time.

you can still get wipsaw with a filter but usually stops you making new trades .To use as a exit trigger would have same effect when market goes sideways, so should be indication of possible trend reversal only, imo

 

[Ann]

the EMA reacts quicker because it is weighed more towards more recent bars

Thanks Will, now the question I want to decide for myself, do I use the EMA and have to wait longer for the exit signal and a slightly lower exit price or do I use the SMA and get closed out more often on the stocks journey? Yes I know, only I can answer that but just thinking out loud!

 

[willoneau]

Ann why not use the EMA to choose the exit signal instead of being it?

 

[willoneau]

What one interprets as closed mind could in fact be actually the result of years of experience.
Using basic indicators will not achieve the desired outcome, but modifying it or using it in a original way might.

 

[Ann]

Ann why not use the EMA to choose the exit signal instead of being it?

Sorry Will, not sure what you mean here?

 

[willoneau]

Example would be say using a index filter to change from a SMA to a EMA exit signal

 

[Ann]

Example would be say using a index filter to change from a SMA to a EMA exit signal

Now that is yet another thought Will! Well done!

 

[willoneau]

When i stopped trying to predict what the market would do, I stopped losing money over the long term.

 

[Ann]

When i stopped trying to predict what the market would do, I stopped losing money over the long term.

Now here is a smart man folks!

 

[aus_trader]

the EMA reacts quicker because it is weighed more towards more recent bars

Yes I can confirm it. In fact Simple and Exponential are very close compared to Smoothed or Linear Weighted. I put various 50-period MA's on a chart to show their behaviour in relation to price.