Silver price discussion and analysis

[greggles]

Silver currently range trading between support and resistance in the area of US$29 and US$29.80. It looks to be consolidating within this range waiting for a catalyst to send it one way or the other.

My observations of the price action indicate strong buying support when spot reaches US$29. Sometimes it gets driven below that level but buyers have been pushing it back above relatively quickly.

I have a feeling we will see a strong move one way or another in due course. My bet is up.

 

[greggles]

Shanghai silver vaults approaching December 2015 lows. Silver looking bullish tonight, up from US$29.37 at 4:38pm to US$29.63 at the time of posting.

 

[greggles]

Silver flirting with US$30 this morning, but so far has been unable to break above this level with any conviction. it's taking another crack at it as I post.

edit: Looks like it's through. US$30.15 and looking bullish.

 

[Sean K]

Silver flirting with US$30 this morning, but so far has been unable to break above this level with any conviction. it's taking another crack at it as I post.

edit: Looks like it's through. US$30.15 and looking bullish.

Bouncing off support nicely. another leg up, but not holding breath.

 

[mullokintyre]

Expecting at least 37 for this next leg.
Mick

 

[Sdajii]

Expecting at least 37 for this next leg.
Mick

Why $37? The only thing I can see is the peak around $37 12 years ago, but there's resistance at $35 to beat first. I hope you're right, not arguing, just not seeing why $37 is the next stop.

Optimistically we might have a shot at $50 some time next year. Not saying it's a sure thing, but precious metals are looking very bullish, gold is pushing new all time highs lately and silver might end up testing its own all time high of just under US$50 if things go well. I'm also seeing a technical target of just over US$40 based on the multi year triangle we recently broke out of (I bought in at $26.50 when the break out happened).

 

[greggles]

Bouncing off support nicely. another leg up, but not holding breath.

View attachment 178996

This move is looking solid. Pullbacks are shallow and on lower volume indicating that the buyers outnumber those selling. Silver tends to pullback and drift a little in the early evening AEST time and picks up again around 9:30pm. If there is still active buying support early tonight I would think that we will see more bullish price action when the US market opens.

 

[DaveTrade]

Why $37? The only thing I can see is the peak around $37 12 years ago, but there's resistance at $35 to beat first. I hope you're right, not arguing, just not seeing why $37 is the next stop.

Optimistically we might have a shot at $50 some time next year. Not saying it's a sure thing, but precious metals are looking very bullish, gold is pushing new all time highs lately and silver might end up testing its own all time high of just under US$50 if things go well. I'm also seeing a technical target of just over US$40 based on the multi year triangle we recently broke out of (I bought in at $26.50 when the break out happened).

@Sdajii based on the confluence of price structure and Fib extensions, I see around $35 as a likely target and then around $47-$48.

 

[Sdajii]

@Sdajii based on the confluence of price structure and Fib extensions, I see around $35 as a likely target and then around $47-$48.
View attachment 179010

Interesting perspective. The silver chart can be read in various ways. Most of them including fundamentals as I see it paint a positive outlook.

Assuming your $47-48 target is hit (I have fairly similar targets for different reasons, it'll get interesting. We'll have at least a small retrace for sure in that scenario which would leave us likely either seeing a double top reversal or it would be a great potential setup for a cup and handle, which would be very likely to play out if the conditions are right for a bullish view on silver at the time.

Either way, if we do get to the high 40s I'll be taking profit and likely selling out completely, with a view to buying back in if a C&H does set itself up (I'd probably buy back around 50-high 50s, or buy something shiny if a double top plays out).

Thanks for taking the time to post the chart.

 

[mullokintyre]

Why $37? The only thing I can see is the peak around $37 12 years ago, but there's resistance at $35 to beat first. I hope you're right, not arguing, just not seeing why $37 is the next stop.

Optimistically we might have a shot at $50 some time next year. Not saying it's a sure thing, but precious metals are looking very bullish, gold is pushing new all time highs lately and silver might end up testing its own all time high of just under US$50 if things go well. I'm also seeing a technical target of just over US$40 based on the multi year triangle we recently broke out of (I bought in at $26.50 when the break out happened).

$37 because its a value I picked out by doing a rough line hitting the last three tops and continuing.
I don't have access to the daily candles for commodities, just most stocks on the ASX.
No TA charting in any way shape or form, but it is better than pulling a figure out of an orrifice.
Mick

 

[DaveTrade]

Interesting perspective. The silver chart can be read in various ways. Most of them including fundamentals as I see it paint a positive outlook.

Assuming your $47-48 target is hit (I have fairly similar targets for different reasons, it'll get interesting. We'll have at least a small retrace for sure in that scenario which would leave us likely either seeing a double top reversal or it would be a great potential setup for a cup and handle, which would be very likely to play out if the conditions are right for a bullish view on silver at the time.

Either way, if we do get to the high 40s I'll be taking profit and likely selling out completely, with a view to buying back in if a C&H does set itself up (I'd probably buy back around 50-high 50s, or buy something shiny if a double top plays out).

Thanks for taking the time to post the chart.

I get the idea that you are someone that looks for price patterns forming and trades those patterns taking your targets from the pattern. I'm a bit different in that my price support/resistance zones only become relevant for me if price goes there. I look to see what the price action is doing and enter and exit based on that. The fundamental aspects of a market just give a description of the environment that I'm trading in. Other people's views on a market can add colour to an otherwise black & white picture that I have of a market.

 

[qldfrog]

in any way , jump was welcome as i wanted to sell and get some of my CG this FY
I will get back in as I am positive long term

 

[greggles]

Silver holding above US$30 since breaking through that level yesterday. Tonight's trading will be a big test as Friday is often a sell off day for silver as traders exit their positions before the weekend. If silver can continue to hold above US$30 as we head into the weekend that will be a positive sign.

 

[greggles]

Hotter than expected PMI numbers out of the US have given precious metals a bit of a pummeling. Silver now trading under US$30 but the price looks to be stabilising. Can it claw its way back over US$30 by the close of trading?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I’ve always found it difficult to make a reasonable profit out of Silver stocks. What Silver instruments do members suggest trading in a short to medium time scale?

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

I’ve always found it difficult to make a reasonable profit out of Silver stocks. What Silver instruments do members suggest trading in a short to medium time scale?

gg

SVL, ARD both track the silver price pretty well.
I will be loading on on them on Monday.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

SVL, ARD both track the silver price pretty well.
I will be loading on on them on Monday.
Mick

And do not forget etpmag

 

[greggles]

Could be some bullish price action between now and the end of June as July silver futures contracts are rolled forward into September and December contracts. There's also an interesting explanation in the video below of how the April 2011 silver bull run was triggered by the same phenomenon.

 

[mullokintyre]

SVL, ARD both track the silver price pretty well.
I will be loading on on them on Monday.
Mick

ARD up 21% today after some new drilling results at Kempfield.
I wish I had bought more last Monday.
Mick

 

[greggles]

Silver back over US$30 in the last hour. Like gold it is looking strong today so it will be interesting to see whether it can hold above US$30 as we head towards the end of the week. Getting ready for the next leg up?