Based on a calculation of kilo bars on ebay the average bid for pysical silver per ounce is Aus$34.50
The paper spot price is Aus$22.60
As it is of interest to me personally, and for the benefit of my ASF friends, I intend to conduct this service each Sunday,,, free of charge.
$19.xx ???
To me on the monthly (depending on close tonight) we will have breached support at about the US$28 level.
The quarterly we will not know till the end of June and support could well hold by that time, which by then would be about US$32.
Close of April on the monthly chart shows silver failing to hold above the $28 support line and that level will now become a resistance line for future upward movement. The next major level of support is $20.
In this business I do have a problem with the word will.
I notice that your support and resistance levels are measured on the horizontal plane. Since I became interested in charting in 1968 it did take some time to realise that there are many other lines to an overall guide to support and resistance levels, and to strength. And as tech/a loves to remind us, volume/=sentiment at those junctures is paramount.
With your last candle the tail down is most often a sign of a reversal.
However we shall see.
This chart for silver appears to have a very bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge (magaphone tilted upward). A very dangerous pattern which can have quite a nasty fall when and if it falls down out of the megaphone shape.
Over several months I watched the quarterly gold chart also forming this shape. The result was carnage for the gold price when it fell out of the megaphone shape. Here is a link to the gold chart just before it fell spectacularly. #9801 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=491
Will this megaphone herald the same with silver's price as it did with gold? Let's see!
I am using a different chart as my normal chart does not show volume and volume plays a roll in the shape's definition which I have included on the chart.
Not sure why you have a problem with the word 'will' Explod...once a price falls under an accepted support line, that line by its very nature becomes a resistance line, fact. This is not saying it will be impossible for a price to regain its position above the resistance and then return the level to support, simply saying it will become a resistance for as long as the price remains below a certain figure, in this instance $28.
I have taken some time to realize there are more than horizontal support and resistance, in fact many many years of constant practice and refining my art of charting. Here is a link to a few of my charts featuring a range of support and resistance levels....even a couple of curvy lines of support! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=715544&viewfull=1#post715544
The recent daily chart I am watching for silver has support and resistance lines for the chart shape of the very bearish upward tilting megaphone, neither line is horizontal and yes I do take volume into account as well. Link https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921
Many years ago I took a lot of time to study 'kangaroo tails' but eventually decided they were relatively unrealiable as a directional indicator.
My own experience is that one can not take any particular indicator too seriously. Kangaroo tails, as you describe are fairly reliable if looked at more as groups. The following SLV weekly for the last 2 years when looked at overall does indicate changes of direction with some reliability in my eyes.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=38&y=12
And as you say, the more minimal a chart the clearer the message.
Though we have a spinning top (slightly longer down though) between the outyer two for last three weeks, they indicate sufficient tails down for a possible change of direction to the upside.
There is also a good old addage that says, "sell in boom and buy in gloom".
Dead right Z, keep your stops up to date!ANY technical formation, oscillator or indicator only offers some probability of success. In the end you cannot use T/A without supporting risk management and expect any degree of success.
...that works for me!The back office rules this game!
Silver is wound up like a top....
I think I would tend to lean short silver here... given that pattern in the USDX.
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