Silver price discussion and analysis

[prawn_86]

AUD has eaten into returns for lots of asset classes and their subcomponents. Investing in GSCI over the same timeframe would have returned ~-2%. Copper -6%. investing in a US 10Y bond ETF would have returned about the same as silver. All priced in AUD of course.

Usually the benchmark for investments in FX land is a 0% return, so an XAGAUD trade after cost of carry is probably right on benchmark (with admittedly high volatility).

Yeh I don't doubt/deny any of that. I was just trying to prove in a round about way that holding physical in no way changes your return over if you were holding 'paper' silver, if you needed to sell that physical today.

Some posters here seem to imply that there is a (beneficial) spread holding actual bars but no dealer I know will pay above the spot price if I want to sell, maybe i'm looking in the wrong place

 

[drillinto]

Major Producers of Silver

http://www.mapsofworld.com/minerals/world-silver-producers.html

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sheesh! What is it call when it makes lower lows and lower highs again?

View attachment 52296

And then lowweeeer lows,

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Um, a bargain?

 

[PipSafe]

Silver chart since the middle of 2011 till now was in a downtrend accompanied with price reformation that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 18.642.Right now price is above 5-day moving average in long term time frames such as monthly and weekly that shows a consistent uptrend in long period of time. In daily time frame with formation of Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern( Also Spining Top candlestick pattern) in previous candle, there is a warning for formation of a bottom price (need to be recorded) and vulnerability of downtrend.

As it is obvious in the picture below, Price has passed the descending trend line made of 6 peak prices warns about more ascending.In monthly time frame of this currency pair, there is a Morning Star candle stick pattern (With 2 stars) that warns about the potential for formation of a bottom price and ascending of the price for buyers.Generally the first warning for ascending of price is breaking of 21.710 resistance level.

 

[PipSafe]

Silver chart since the middle of 2011 till now was in a downtrend accompanied with price reformation that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 18.213.Right now price is above 5-day moving Daily and H4 time frames that show an uptrend during the next candles.By formation of Morning Star( With 2 Stars) candlestick pattern on 7,10,11 and 12th days in daily time frame, there is a warning(R=S) for the first failure of sellers in achieving lower prices and formation of a bottom price for increasing of the price in this area.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is non-ideal AB=CD pattern between the top price of 22.173 and the bottom price of 20.589 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current bottom price and warns about ascending of price during the next candles. Generally until the price level of 20.589 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.

 

[explod]

It has been a great season for the stackers.

And the rigging cannot hold much longer.

 

[PipSafe]

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Silver dated 2014.03.13, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 21.769 and after that the price has started to decrease.Currently price in Weekly , daily and h4 time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 22.149 and the bottom price of 20.088 with ideal ratios of 76.4 to 127.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern.

RSI indicator is in saturation sell area follows the bottom price of 20.088 and warns the possibility of ascend during the next candles.One of the important signs for descending is breaking of Down Trend line (made of 2 top prices). Given the current situation of price, the best confirmations for ascending and reformation of price is closing of bullish candle in Daily time frame and being of price above 5-day moving average in H4 time frame.

 

[PipSafe]

Silver chart has experienced a strong descending trend during the recent week that could record the bottom price of 18.857. One of the sellers’ targets was the round level of 19.000 that they were successful in reaching to it and the price was not able to descend more by reaching to this level.

As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Up Trendline (made of 3 bottom prices) and also the round supportive level of 19.000 has created the hammer candlestick pattern. Closing of the bullish candle (Engulfing Pattern) after this pattern will confirm it and warns about ascending of price .Currently price in Daily and H4 time frames is above 5-day moving average that shows ascending of price during the next candles.RSI indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles .Generally until the mentioned bottom price is preserved, there is the potential for downtrend reformation.

 

[Ann]

I always looked on silver as the minor metal that got dragged behind gold. However I have been looking at the historic Silver chart coming from 1970 and I reckon there is a long term Cup & Handle pattern evolving which may offer a hint as to where precious metals are heading over the next couple of decades. The chart is set in Log scale. I did the swing trade calculations and feel the metal could go as high as $68 in time....and I do mean a long time, say over the next twenty years or so. I make no guarantees and it is just for a bit of fun.

 

[PipSafe]

Silver was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent Days that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 20.117.Currently in 4H time frame with formation of hammer candlestick pattern (the failure of sellers in reaching to the lower prices) price has been stopped from more descending and there is a possibility of formation of a bottom price and finally ascending of the price.
As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 21.235 and bottom price of 20.117 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 50 and 127.2 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area in H4 time frame and in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction during the next days. In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the Down Trendline(made of 5 top prices ).

Silver Technical Analysis dated 2014.08.05

 

[octain]

brought in at 19.55 , Think if it hits 19.00 will double up. Seems to rebound of this limit. Love a good has bottomed out trade. Its where you make most of your money, anyone else on this ???

 

[PipSafe]

Silver was in a descending trend from the top price of 21.559 that could record the bottom price of 19.297. Right now this bottom price is fixed by the next ascending candles and is the next nearest supportive level. If this supportive level breaks , the price will have the potential of reaching to the important supportive level of 18.852.

as it is obvious in the picture below, the price in a Down channel during its descending trend that the Resistance level of this channel prevent it from a rise for several times and each time the price has descended.In daily time frame there is a Inverted hammer candlestick pattern (also a Spinning top pattern) that shows the sellers retreat for reaching to the lower prices that it needs confirming with closing of an ascending candle.In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the Down Trendline.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Silver is starting to look like one of those 2 bit penny stocks. Slowly bleeding the loyal followers of enthusiasm.



Sitting on new four year lows. Gold looks to be about to follow?

 

[sreeve]

Hi all

My interpretation of the silver chart below (weekly, USD).

Silver recently broke support at $18.62 and hit below $16.92 support. Silver last consolidated strongly between these two levels between Sep 2009 - Aug 2010 and between Feb and Aug 2008, so there may be a bottom at current levels and some more sideways action? If not, then I'd expect at least $14.65 to hit next support level - a major support level that goes back to April 2006.



~ Scott

 

[PipSafe]

Silver had a strong and without reformation descending trend during the recent weeks and could record the bottom price of 16.665.Right now this price level is one of the important supportive levels in front of the price. According to the recent strong descending, price is in saturation sell area and there is the potential for ascending and price reformation.

According to the formed movements in the price chart, between the top price of 22.160 and the bottom price of 16.665 there is an none-ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 78.6 and 161.8 that warns about changing price direction and price reformation. RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the D point of this pattern by the next cycle and warns about the potential of ascending of the price during the next days.Generally until the price level of 16.665 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending and reformation.

Technical Analysis of Silver dated 2014.10.08

 

[rimtas]

With almost everyone on a bear side, it is no wonder that prices started to move against the herd.

 

[zac]

Some people are quick to treat silver like its toxic.
While it still may have some downside left, I note its decline (together with Gold) was rather drastic in line with the strength in the USD. With the USD taking a breather, so have the precious metals.

Given Silver is the poor cousin to Gold, it will tend to move the same direction as it. So the 1180 level on Gold will be critical I think to determine where Silver will go.
A breach of 1180 would tend to suggest 1000 is in sight and who knows what that means for Silver.

 

[PipSafe]

Silver was in a strong and consistent descending trend during the recent month that sellers during this descending trend were successful in achieving the lowest price level of 15.042.In weekly time frame the previous week candle was closed as a Hammer candlestick pattern that shows the indecision for ascending or descending. If this pattern confirms, there will be the potential for changing price direction.


According to the formed movements in the chart, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 50 and 200 between top price of 25.087 and the bottom price of 15.042 that warns about changing price direction from the D point(Morning Star Candlestick Pattern) of this pattern.RSI indicator in daily time frame is in saturation sell area and also it is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns the potential for ascending of the price during the next candles. Generally until the price level of 15.042 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending and reformation.

 

[PipSafe]

Technical Analysis of Silver dated 2015.01.13


Price since the end of 2011 till now was in strong and consistent downtrend with a little price reformation and Sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 14.401 .Price has formed a bottom price with reaching to the specified supportive levels in the picture below and it has stopped from more descend and has started a little ascend with shows exit of some sellers from their trades.


In Monthly time frame with formation of Spinning Top candlestick pattern in previous candle, there is a warning for formation of a bottom price (need to be recorded) and vulnerability of downtrend. As it is obvious in the picture below, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 0.382 and 2.42 between the bottom price of 14.401 and the top price of 49.689 that warns changing price direction from D point.


Stoch indicator is in saturation Sell area and confirms the harmonic D point and potential for ascending of the price. In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the Down Trendline(made of 4 top prices). Generally according to the formed signs in this price chart, until the bottom price of 14.401 is preserved, there will be the potential for ascending and price reformation in this Metal.