Silver price discussion and analysis

CanOz · 3 February 2013

Here is an hourly view of the SI contract. After the failure of 32.5 we've had failures of 32.0 as well. That said, there is a value area between 32.28 and 31.57 forming, so price is being accepted in this area. I think we'd need to see a break of 32.28 and a retest for continuation. That could provide a lower risk entry into Silver. If that was successful then we could see a test of 32.73, 33.46, 33.86 and 34.43. These Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) could provide some resistance on the way up, but could be potential entry points for continuation if they test successfully and value is established higher.

Of course, there is a downside as well and a break of 31.0 could see this play out.

Cheers,

CanOz

young-gun · 3 February 2013

CanOz said:
Here is an hourly view of the SI contract. After the failure of 32.5 we've had failures of 32.0 as well. That said, there is a value area between 32.28 and 31.57 forming, so price is being accepted in this area. I think we'd need to see a break of 32.28 and a retest for continuation. That could provide a lower risk entry into Silver. If that was successful then we could see a test of 32.73, 33.46, 33.86 and 34.43. These Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) could provide some resistance on the way up, but could be potential entry points for continuation if they test successfully and value is established higher.

Of course, there is a downside as well and a break of 31.0 could see this play out.

Cheers,

CanOz

Thanks for the breakdown Canoz, I don't even know what I'm looking at when it comes to charts Are you expecting an upward move or more towards the downside in the short term?

explod · 3 February 2013

Unless you are paper trading the charts are useless and do not reflect the price being paid for physical as I posted on this thread some time back.

And as young gun just just pointed out, ETF's unless you are an expert short term trader, will be worthless when the calls come for physical delivery.

CanOz · 3 February 2013

young-gun said:
Thanks for the breakdown Canoz, I don't even know what I'm looking at when it comes to charts Are you expecting an upward move or more towards the downside in the short term?

Well its clearly in a short term uptrend, but its at a decision point now. If value is considered higher then we can expect a break higher, simple as that. I don't use charts to predict what will happen, only what is most probable and where there could be a chance to get on board a longer term trade, with the lowest amount of risk. I would use the ETF for a longer term trade, and size my position according to my trading account.

I'm doing a chart for Platinum at the moment too.

CanOz

CanOz · 3 February 2013

explod said:
Unless you are paper trading the charts are useless and do not reflect the price being paid for physical as I posted on this thread some time back.

And as young gun just just pointed out, ETF's unless you are an expert short term trader, will be worthless when the calls come for physical delivery.

The prices that I am interested in are not what people are paying for physical metals Explod. I have no interest in buying physical metals and in fact i have no place to store it if i did.

My discussion is based on the Futures contract and the ETF. I respect that others may want discuss buying physical metal, and perhaps you have a better way of showing the current market price for that, i don't.

Cheers,

CanOz

FlyingFox · 3 February 2013

young-gun said:
Explod, I read everywhere about the whole 'keeping a lid on it' idea, yet it still seems 'unproven', but still widely assumed. The CFTC launched their investigation and apparently came up with nothing. Although then everyone just said the CFTC is is corrupt and were either bribed or forced into dropping it. Do you think there is an element of wishful thinking from silver bugs and bulls?

Don't know about the big smart money or conspiracies but governments have a good reason for keeping the price down. They don't want precious metals to be used a (pseudo? ) currency. This undermines paper currency and hampers printing efforts etc.

young-gun said:
I hope no one is holding gold ETF's for the long term thinking they are sitting on a right to bullion. I'm sure there are some though.

I am sure there are many people out there that were sold on this with "it's as good as gold without the holding costs"

young-gun said:
Silver is very unique, and irreplaceable in most instances. No other substance has the same conductivity, and low resistance is essential for a lot of it's current applications - if not all?

True. It is also used extensively for decorative purposes like silverware, jewellery. At different price points, the non-essential uses will diminish.

young-gun said:
I'm sure that as silver climbs high enough some entrepreneur will find a cheaper way to extract silver from devices and panels etc, I'm not sure that silver would ever climb to that level in my life-time but here's hoping.

As for the bars I'm holding, I won't be content until I'm sitting on 50kg's of silver

Fair enough.

young-gun · 3 February 2013

FlyingFox said:
Don't know about the big smart money or conspiracies but governments have a good reason for keeping the price down. They don't want precious metals to be used a (pseudo? ) currency. This undermines paper currency and hampers printing efforts etc.

Yep, and central banks(fed is privately owned).

I am sure there are many people out there that were sold on this with "it's as good as gold without the holding costs"

Unfortunately I think you're right, however that's only a good thing for physical buyers.

True. It is also used extensively for decorative purposes like silverware, jewellery. At different price points, the non-essential uses will diminish.

Without fail I always forget that silver is used for the above.

cynic · 3 February 2013

Here's an amusing discourse on JPM and Benny Blankcheque's collusive influence on the silver market:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Gl47z2g2EvI

cbc1 · 3 February 2013

Oz that is one ugly looking graph.

Mbey ok to day trade, to many trend changes in the last 6 months for me.

FlyingFox · 3 February 2013

cynic said:
Here's an amusing discourse on JPM and Benny Blankcheque's collusive influence on the silver market:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Gl47z2g2EvI

That's priceless. Wonder how many gold coated tungsten bars are heading back to Deutschland? :

tinhat · 3 February 2013

explod said:
Not on your life, in my view it is still the only game in town.

The supply side is critically short, world production is decreasing, the need increasing,

just a matter of time.

and demand.

FlyingFox · 3 February 2013

young-gun said:
fed is privately owned

Wow! Did not know this. How screwed up can they get? The printing of US currency is in the hands of a privately owned entity.....

notting · 3 February 2013

cynic said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Gl47z2g2EvI[/URL]

Just want to correct this terminology in the video.
It's the pigs that get slaughtered the sheep get trampled.

zac · 6 February 2013

FlyingFox said:
Wow! Did not know this. How screwed up can they get? The printing of US currency is in the hands of a privately owned entity.....

The Central Banks of nearly all countries I beleive is independant of the government. ie RBA is yet it works in partnership with the Govt a lot better than the US fed and the RBA has accountabilities to the aussie govt yet US Fed isnt subject to audit, accountabilities etc as one would think.
So yeah from that point of view very screwed up.

explod · 8 February 2013

The east want our silver. The more I learn the happier I am with holding physical silver.

The Chinese are alive to the fact that escaped the silver bugs in the West, that you can derive a silver income from your pile of silver by covered short selling, even while retaining physical control of your silver hoard. THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED BONANZA IN THE HISTORY OF MONEY.

The entire article for those interested is well worth the read.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...20&redirect=false&contributor=Antal+E.+Fekete

white_goodman · 8 February 2013

FlyingFox said:
Wow! Did not know this. How screwed up can they get? The printing of US currency is in the hands of a privately owned entity.....

a privately owned entity whos governor is elected by the President... degrees of independence... its not ideal but better than congress having the control

young-gun · 8 February 2013

white_goodman said:
a privately owned entity whos governor is elected by the President...l

haha come on WG. I'd say it's more of a....

"You have three choices this time round Mr P. You can pick Bernanke, Bernanke...orrrrr Bernanke. Sign here. Oh by the way he's in power for 14 years or until he resigns. You may as well sign this one too, it's for the next chairman following benny boy. Please see to it that we are left alone or else."

young-gun · 8 February 2013

explod said:
The east want our silver. The more I learn the happier I am with holding physical silver.

The entire article for those interested is well worth the read.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...20&redirect=false&contributor=Antal+E.+Fekete

The only thing I would question explod is the claim of a silver standard. I understand silver has been used in countless instances throughout the whole of history as a means of exchange, as well as gold. However with technology improving and advancing at a blistering pace, hence increasing demand for silver as an industrial metal, depleting it as we go, it makes more sense to me that they would try to implement a gold standard.

explod · 9 February 2013

young-gun said:
The only thing I would question explod is the claim of a silver standard. I understand silver has been used in countless instances throughout the whole of history as a means of exchange, as well as gold. However with technology improving and advancing at a blistering pace, hence increasing demand for silver as an industrial metal, depleting it as we go, it makes more sense to me that they would try to implement a gold standard.

I agree with you on this, just forwarding the info on into the ring.

My only concept of silver is as an investment long term for me.

And always qualify, physical in the hand only.

young-gun · 9 February 2013

explod said:
My only concept of silver is as an investment long term for me.

May not be as long as you think depending on how quickly events unravel.

Silver price discussion and analysis

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