Op i guess home work IMO is major news releases or CB meetings. they have the potential to disrupt the market, or change its dynamic.
yes, the context thing
i'm looking at the previous session(s) to see if there is a basic set-up to buy or to sell an annoc as not all set-ups are on the day or just for the day.....for example, i am riding gold shorts from this morning, based on rapid sales at the fomc and the inability for funds to raise price and that the commercials and swaps dealers have been heavily selling but at extremes and as we're not at either extreme of daily highs or lows then the play is within the context of that background data and how far i think price is likely to travel before either value buyers (funds lower and commercials much much lower) try and step or value sellers (commercials much much higher) the retail crowd is pretty well tied up long in both the US futes and metals......gold has been moving smoothly on 12 point swings and they look impulsive but suddenly die and can cause traps so ratios maybe important inverse or inline doesnt matter jsut gettign them narrated is important, simply an earmark....silver has held its ground very well, so another backdrop is telling how well contained any sell is likely to be and if silver breaks it's level of value buying then pressure is inviting a build to hold overnight and if equities sell down impulsively the likelyhood leans to selling metals for the purpose of liquidity availability too plus sell-side liquidity should build during the session via puts etc..........i'm looking for general media sentiment, general talking heads sentiment.....put/call ratios of the previous day and cumulative effect ......i find reading the COT and options activity a very good background to support higher time frame activity, trying to get context so i can see if my trades will be large swings or i can do lower time frame, i think i am in the diff levels of that activity, call it trend if you like.....some basic pattern recognition starting with monthly all the way down, doesnt take long....still looking to get sense of context why is one trough a buy in the minor upmove and one trough actually the first leg in a larger downswing...again, context of the news if i'm going to be active at that time is vitally important....so a lot of prep is done on the run, how is price reacting and what level are major players likely to step in, what gaps, how likely is price going to retouch the launch price before continuing and confirming the session
news days are simply extra excuse days to move price.....it's how price might be moved relative to those biggest players and where they'll be positioned....within the confines of chop or trend.....do i think the pros have been holding this stuff for enough days and are looking to release with short sell energy or held high enough to get late have-to-buy players and then sell that strength......as everything has context and is about relative size and intent, the job is to focus in the correct area, who gains at what level, when selling looks like a break down there are levels where the buyers await the sellers, they just wait and wait no smashing bids or any of that stuff, that is a different time frame again.....the spx might not see any of the usual pro activity just after the open, but it looks smooth and somehow odd, there's no news coming and no ones pushing, i'm not looking at depth, it's in the price.....two hours into the session the pricing just goes lame but i know it wont stay lame...someone needs an excuse to move price....one large account can be the catalyst and suddenly there's two hours of downward chop to hold onto and quickly figure the ratios likely to be met or previous turnover zone that is most likely to find buyer lurking, how was this play set-up and how does it set-up the next sessions play (news or no news)
some where am i going to be wrong levels depending on the play i'm looking for and some flip-flop levels and an approximate % of where to reverse and add to a position if i find that price is telling me of a secondary or thirdary play....again, moving to context and size of the plays as fast as possible
prelim health stuff, not too tired, hungry etc little things like that do make a diff
anyways, contributing to the thread, that's prelim stuff i look at and do....most of anyways...percentage wise it's flexible, somedays all the real price work is done within minutes or seconds of trade, some light bulb ah-ha-i-see-you piggy moments
(thirdary....wot.....? sorry william!)