Short Plays

[Ken]

The US looks like theres another dip tommorow.

BHP looking like down 3% in pre-open... a break through 6500 is going to be nasty.

Having said this, I thought a lot of the stocks were overbought.

The bad thing is that if you hold stocks that are already good value, they are going to become cheap, and the charts will look ugly.. but present buying opportunities.

CPU is a stock that has lost 25% from its highs. It never recovered from August 10... so who knows how far CPU can go down. Possibly worth a short as it has broken long term upward trend???

 

[juw177]

How is everyone's short plays going? of all the ones I couldve shorted, I chose ERA, which bounced back the strongest in the last 2 days rally. This thread should be Long Plays.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

How is everyone's short plays going? of all the ones I couldve shorted, I chose ERA, which bounced back the strongest in the last 2 days rally. This thread should be Long Plays.

As I said before shorting in bullish conditions is a losers game. It must be learned as a stand alone strategy for the RIGHT conditions. My experience od losses in bullish conditions backs up the theory.

 

[tech/a]

Snake.

They are just like any other trade and just like finding stocks which remain in a longterm up trend during bearish conditions,stocks can have prolonged bear runs in bullish conditions.

It more about trade management than the condition of the overall market.
Not saying it doesnt have some bearing,but to stop trading long in a bearish market is similar is it not?

ALL is still tanking.
ILU the same.

Am I trading them,who cares if I say I am I'm just blowing my own trumpet.
big noting myself.
This forum wont see any trade demo's from this black duck.

If people want to see my trading it will be on "The Chartist". I dont cop crap there.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake.

They are just like any other trade and just like finding stocks which remain in a longterm up trend during bearish conditions,stocks can have prolonged bear runs in bullish conditions.

It more about trade management than the condition of the overall market.
Not saying it doesnt have some bearing,but to stop trading long in a bearish market is similar is it not?

ALL is still tanking.
ILU the same.

Am I trading them,who cares if I say I am I'm just blowing my own trumpet.
big noting myself.
This forum wont see any trade demo's from this black duck.

If people want to see my trading it will be on "The Chartist". I dont cop crap there.

Wonderfull picks: ALL
Point taken that individual stocks have their own characters regardless of the overall conditions. If a stock is bullish in bearish conditions why short it? or vice versa.

Nothing expected from you. Do as you wish. If you don't want to cop crap don't dish it out. Why bother if it is painful for you?

 

[juw177]

There is not too much crap in this forum which is why I come here. Tech, people dont feel comfortable taking someones view that is different from their own and so they may argue if only to reassure themselves or to try to learn more about where you are coming from so they can trade better.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I shant be posting anymore Tech. I took some of my own advice.

 

[tech/a]

ILU and ANN still coming off.

Amazing how shorts and the setups are forgotten

 

[juw177]

BHP was going to be my short play on Friday but I put it off.

Now I am watching JBH. The stock's volume has been decreasing during its recent run up to $17 with a poor effort to breach it. Because of the lack of demand, it will not take much to kick start a reversal.

 

[bigdog]

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ge_busnews_am&instance=2019-02-10--19-54--UTC

$2.7b on the line as ASX's most shorted stocks report results
By William McInnes
February 11, 2019 — 12.05am

Investors are poised for a big week of earnings, with a number of the local sharemarket's most shorted stocks set to report their results this week.

JB Hi-Fi, Super Retail Group, IOOF Holdings, Amcor, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and AMP will all report earnings this week, with a combined $2.7 billion sitting in short positions against them.

The local sharemarket is set for a mixed start to the week's trading, with ASX Futures sitting 4 points, or 0.1 per cent, lower at 6007 on Sunday.

While AMP, IOOF Holdings and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank all closed the week stronger in the wake of the royal commission final report, a disappointing retail trade print on Monday saw JB Hi-Fi shares slide.

"We've had a few retailers issue a profit warning," said Tribeca Investment Partners fund manager Jun Bei Liu. "Its share price hasn't really collapsed compared to Harvey Norman but all feedback is suggesting things are pretty tough and even in the retail sales data, the consumer electronics looked pretty weak."

The electronics retailer regularly divides investors and has more than 15 per cent of its shares held in short positions, more than any other company on the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.

"The like-for-like trading into the second half will really determine where the share price goes," said Ms Liu. "It's got a good business plan but the trading environment is difficult."

Ms Liu said the results of AMP and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank would also be crucial in getting a better read on the financial sector following the royal commission's final report.

"What we've seen from Commonwealth Bank is their overall market and earnings are weak, so we expect Bendigo's margins to deteriorate and think there will be a weak result there," she said.

"For AMP, given the outcome of the royal commission, we'd like to see how they're faring and the strategic direction."

Both companies had a combined $840 million worth of their shares held in short positions as of February 4, although gains in their share prices last week could suggest investors may have exited those positions.

The first full week of earnings saw the local sharemarket climb to its biggest weekly percentage gain since November 2016, with above expectation results from a number of companies.

"So far, this reporting season has been like others," said Firetrail Investments deputy managing director Blake Henricks. "Expectations have been set fairly low so you have seen some big relief rallies in poor performers like James Hardie, Clydesdale Bank and Nick Scali."

The beginning of the earnings season also saw a flood of money injected into the market, with trading volumes 11 per cent above average for the week.

"The mood has certainly changed," said Ophir Asset Management director and senior portfolio manager Andrew Mitchell. "Everyone was bearish in December and every fund manager we spoke to was sitting on huge piles of cash. All it took was a slight change in sentiment and now fund managers have been forced to redeploy their cash into the market."

He expects shares to keep rallying as results continue to outperform the low expectations set by the market at the end of last year.

"It's early in reporting season in Australia but initial signs are the results are OK," he said. "We are seeing the value names and resources rally at the moment. Fund managers are left under-weight stocks right now and just have to redeploy cash into the market. My feeling is this could go on for a while yet, reflecting how bearish everyone was in December."

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