SGL - Sydney Gas

[Aussiejeff]

SGL Breakout Coming!

BIG news today for SGL.

My faith in holding and trading these shares appears now to be well founded.... ;o)

Get in quick.........

Cheers,

AJ

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: SGL Breakout Coming!

I wonder what the new name for Sydney Gas will become at the AGM? I like the new direction they are taking. I reckon the share price SHOULD break through 70c within 2-3 months.... and the news hasn't even hit the financial papers yet ;o)...

Time will tell. I'm glad I bought a stack at 49c! )

Cheers,

AJ

PS: The volume is now well over 2 million trades and rising.. *edit - now make that 3mill and skyrocketing.*

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: SGL Breakout Coming!

Phew!

I was having to hold onto my shorts when SGL hit .395 yesterday having made my untimely prediction earlier in September! Fortunately I had a few bucks left in kitty to jump in at that rock bottom price

At last, further very positive news today (reducing debt + Q1 increasing output and revenues) shot the shares up over 22% (or 9c) to hit 50c intraday - and held on strong from there to close at 49c with plenty of buyers left haggling... I continue to hold aplenty...

Any thoughts on their proposed change of name to "Wollemi Energy Ltd" (WEL)?

Cheers,

AJ

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: SGL Breakout Coming!

Excellent news for SGL today!

"Date 16/11/2005
Author Nigel Wilson
Source The Australian -- Page: 26

Australian electric utility, AGL, plans to build a large gas-fired power station in New South Wales. It will spend $A200 million on the plant at Campbelltown in Sydney. The first stage could be in operation by 2009. It will be supplied with gas from the company's wholesale gas portfolio. This includes its joint venture with coal-seam gas maker, Sydney Gas. The proposed Papua New Guinea project is expected to deliver its first gas in 2009. New South Wales has forecast that generating capacity will not meet demand by 2008."

If that announcement coupled with yesterdays payment from AGL of $42m doesn't shake off investor blues with this stock in the coming months, I don't know what will!

Bargain buying atm imho.

Of course, I HOLD - so I do have a vested interest here!

Cheers - I'm almost about to break out the bubbly....

AJ

 

[RichKid]

Re: SGL Breakout Coming!

SGL still to break out but there's a trading halt in place due to an investigation into 'control' and substantial shareholder notices- what does all this mean?? lack of disclosure?? Did a google on it but no news, this company has so much going on in the background it's not funny, let's hope it settles down soon.

Have a take on it Jeff?

 

[RichKid]

Re: SGL Breakout Coming!

From today's Herald, explains it a lot, wish they'd sort this all out, looks like that AGL deal wasn't as good as it sounded. Wait and see approach now, I don't think Knight is the type of guy who takes things lying down, I still don't know what this is all about, can't run a company and make big profits when things are in such turmoil. I'm on the sidelines 'til it's all over.

Move on Knight gathers strength
By Jamie Freed
SMH December 1, 2005

A COLOURFUL group of Sydney Gas shareholders could soon tip former Olympics minister Michael Knight out of his chair.

Following a failed vote to oust Mr Knight as chairman at the company's annual meeting last week, some are understood to be calling for an extraordinary general meeting to air concerns about his management.

The Australian Stock Exchange yesterday allowed the company to suspend trading for up to 12 more days while it investigated whether a bloc of large shareholders might be acting in concert. The company might take the fight to court to collect evidence in the form of affidavits from these parties.

The ordeal began when a few shareholders speaking for substantial parcels cast votes against the company's proposed name change to Wollemi Energy and booted out a non-executive director, former Woodside Petroleum chief financial officer Robert Carroll last Friday.

It is understood that at least some of these shareholders plan to call an extraordinary meeting but deny they are acting as associates.

The rebellious shareholders include mining identity Peter "Talkie" Newton, Chimaera Capital's Ian Pattison and controversial Malaysian-born businessman Lee Ming Tee, but not all voted the same way on every resolution at last Friday's meeting.

Sydney Gas had long been a troubled company known for paying out large executive salaries and for fights with landowners in the Hunter Valley.

As part of a reform program, Mr Knight took the helm in July, signed a $93 million joint venture deal with AGL in September and agreed to cease operations in the Hunter.

The company has also made more timely and accurate disclosure a priority during Mr Knight's tenure but some of this has disappointed the market and the shares have fallen 18 per cent since July.

Some shareholders have been angered by the deal with AGL, arguing that it would give all coal-seam gas production to a single retailer cheaper than if it had been sold to the open market.

But chief executive Andrew Purcell countered: "This company was in a very bad situation toward the end of the financial year. We had very limited choices going forward and the AGL deal we believe was absolutely crucial on a number of fronts."

 

[RichKid]

Re: SGL Breakout Coming!

Just read this, looking very sickly imo, breakout coming but maybe down like there's no tomorrow, Monday will tell all, what a mess, shows the danger in trying to pick the bottom: http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/knight-out-of-the-sydney-gas-games/2005/12/09/1134086805567.html

 

[GreatPig]

Oops...

Down about 16% today at the moment

GP

 

[Rasman]

Is anyone else really pissed at the SGL board? What in gods name are they doing with our investment?

the QGC takeover bid is totally to the benefit of all SGL shareholders. The board are a bunch of clueless no hopers.

They need $80mil, but are only raising $50mil, and even $50mil is more than they could handle. It really pisses me off that they are willing to dilute existing shareholders investments by such a substantial amount. If SGL don't recommend shareholders accept QGC's offer, SGL is headed for doom.

I can foresee it now - SGL stays independent, SGL share price plummits, QGC puts forward another takeover bid, but 3:1 (or even 4:1) rather than the current 2:1.

What are all these bull**** deals SGL is entering into to get a bit of money. Reading about the B&B underwriting and associated B&B benefits makes me feel physically sick - There is absolutely no benefit to SGL shareholders AT ALL! Even where SGL shareholders are allowed to purchase new shares, at the price SGL should be trading (27c pre QGC offer which took share prices to 34c in a single day, which is very similar to the current rate) the share purchase plan is a complete rip-off!

I've decided to ride the storm out and cast all votes in favour of QGC. SGL directors should be shot!

Anyone else got comments?

 

[laurie]

Well you were right Rasman

QGC= .71cents
SGL= .25cents

cheers laurie

 

[stockGURU]

Technically it looks to be forming a double bottom on both a yearly and four yearly chart. After suffering initially after the QGC takeover bid collapsed it seems to be settling at the 0.25c mark.

Does anyone have any comments on the fundamentals, especially in light of the recent recapitalisation?

 

[Hopeful]

If SGL closes above .27 tomorrow (June 27th) then I think it will go up further. I can see a technical buy signal on my chart there.

I do wonder, though, why a gas producer would be in such a nasty downtrend when the energy sector has been as hot as the gas cooker. Maybe because of nuclear proliferation? I mean power plants.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Up 26% in 3 days... ended today at 29.5c after topping at 31c midtrading. Almost 4x buyers to sellers (about 1.2m buys to about 300,000 sells) at end of trading today so looks positive again for tomorrows open. I missed the 23.5c action but jumped back in again at 27.5c, so fingers are crossed!

Firming support I think is based on the new production and possible power station strategy just announced by the AGL/SGL joint venture and the fact it looks like they have finally got a CEO with some significant energy sector credibility (who just started on the 28th Aug).

I would expect him to give an upbeat CEO's address to shareholders anytime soon, which *might* further underpin this phoenix's rise from the ashes.... it all depends on the timing of the announcement, as SGL's SP will likely approach a top in RSI and CMF in a few trading days from now given the current push.

Also, in the past few days the financial media spin for SGL has been rather positive, as opposed to the right royal "bashing" it received during it's fight off of QGC's takeover bid. That really hurt it's SP! Even "Inside Trader" recently listed SGL as "Pick of the week"....

Happy trading,

AJ

 

[Dutchy3]

I'll be long if this one push through to 35 - 40 next in the next week or two. I like the accumulation and certainly the volume hits this last 11 months

 

[Dutchy3]

Taken Long positions via CFD's in this one and is doing all the right things. MD staying around 4 - 5 : 1 and heavy volume on the bullish days. Oh for a quick ride back upto 80 - 90.

 

[Aussiejeff]

MEDIA RELEASE
CAMDEN GAS PROJECT
SURFACE TO IN-SEAM (SIS) DRILLING PROGRAM UPDATE
5 December 2006

Sydney Gas Ltd is pleased to advise that the Camden Joint Venture has successfully
completed drilling the main branch of a second SIS well, Glenlee 15 (GL15), at Camden
on 1 December 2006. The well intersected the Upper Permian Bulli seam at the
measured depth (MD) of 871m with an average thickness of approximately 4m. Total
length of the well is approximately 2,032m of which approximately 1,161m has been
drilled horizontally through the coal seam. Earlier, the first SIS well GL14 was completed
on 2 November 2006 after drilling 1,160m in-seam through the Bulli seam.

Both GL14 and GL15 SIS wells were drilled from the same surface location where a
previous vertical well, GL10, is located. It is anticipated that further application of this
technique will allow commercial exploitation of gas reserves that would otherwise be
difficult to access because of land use constraints.

GL15 has been drilled to test the horizontal production performance of the Bulli seam;
nearby vertical wells have already demonstrated good production potential. A higher flow
rate and hence higher ultimate recovery is expected from a SIS well compared to a
vertical well due to a larger drainage area to be swept by a SIS well. Reservoir simulation
studies indicate well performance of 2-6 times that of a vertical well depending on
reservoir heterogeneity.

To reduce overall cost per GJ and optimise the productivity of the nearby area, the Joint
Venture plans to drill a new lateral of up to 500m for GL15 that will increase the in-seam
length of the well and potentially remove the need for drilling an additional vertical well in
the area.

Both the above wells along with earlier drilled directional wells LB11, GL16, GL12 and
GL13 will be dewatered and production tested before being tied into the gas gathering
system to produce gas to the Rosalind Park Gas Plant. The Joint Venture is planning to
drill additional SIS wells during this financial year, and is identifying locations where we
believe the technology will be applicable.

AGL Energy Ltd is the operator of the Camden Gas Project in a 50-50 joint venture with
Sydney Gas Ltd.

For further information please contact:
Sydney Gas Ltd
Dr Philip Moore
Managing Director
(02) 9253 5555

I think the key info from the above positive blurb is - "Reservoir simulation
studies indicate well performance of 2-6 times that of a vertical well depending on
reservoir heterogeneity".

I know I'm waiting with baited breath for the actual production test result figures..... even at only 2 times normal production rates, that should prove to be a significant plus for the new team and the SP in the short term - maybe breaking up to 50-55c? (it broke through 42c recently with good volumes then settled back to around 40c on profit taking - all WITHOUT any actual production data to push the SP that far).

Given the current increased interest in all manner of CSG companies both worldwide and locally (eg QGC, MEL, AOE in particular), I figure if the increase in production is anywhere near 3-4 times per directional well, it should mean blue skies ahead for the SGL SP in the medium to longer term as well, as long as the current management team remains uncontroversial and stable! I haven't heard any negative press following the recent "open day" that SGL held for locals in the Hunter Valley.

Another plus for SGL at the moment is that the Commsec forecast is also very positive right now and financials are in much better shape. Still, my fingers are knotted for the preliminary prod rep. Shouldn't be too much longer now..

Cheers,


AJ

 

[Dutchy3]

Thanks for sharing this AJ ... my system fritzzed on the weekend and I and comtemplating closing out all positions until I can get online (Xmas too and holidays etc)

This chart is very positive though and I see its up a few ticks this morning with MD 4 : 1 ... I'll hold this

 

[Aussiejeff]

NICE jump in volumes (and price) today for SGL. Almost 18 million shares traded with a pre-open trade of 12,000,000 @ .38c sparking plenty of action during the day to close up 3c at 41c with buyer shares outnumbering seller shares 3:1.

The only news I could see late in the day was that the MD had bought 300,000 shares yesterday "on market", which is hopefully a good sign (tying in of their new higher producing SIS and directional wells to the new compressor in coming weeks should boost production back up nicely).

I haven't got a clue about the 12,000,000 pre-open trade. Institutional investor perhaps?

The coal seam gas sector may do very well out of the climate change policy shift in the coming years. The fact that it produces less harmful emissions than most other fuels and gases (barring hydrogen) is a plus for sure, as well as producing loads of water in the process that might well be a big positive selling point when it comes to convincing local populations of the benefits of CSG mining in their localities (as opposed to ripping coal out of the same ground!).

Interesting times ahead methinks.....

AJ

 

[chops_a_must]

All of the CSG producers have kicked again since OSH announced they weren't going to continue with the pipeline. SGL doesn't look as good a prospect as some of the others though.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Three more directors buying .... a further 225,000 shares in past few days.

Up another 2.5c today so far. Last price I checked was 43.5.

Cheers,

AJ