SEN - Senetas Corporation

123enen · 21 May 2006

They have got themselves in trouble with the authorities.
Some growing pains mixed with a little incompetence and maybe a liitle bit of pushing the accounting envelope.
They also had to make some ammendments to June 2005 ans Sept 2005 annual reports. Sloppy work.
Doubt that it will have any impact on SEN

SafeNet, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFNT), announced that it received a subpoena from the office of the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York relating to the Company’s granting of stock options. The Company also announced that it has received an informal inquiry from the Securities and Exchange Commission requesting information relating to stock option grants to directors and officers of the Company, as well as information relating to certain accounting policies and practices. The Company is actively engaged in responding to these requests, and will cooperate fully with both offices.

In your post you mention BOD. What is BOD?

IMO SEN will get e-crypt back. They now own 30% of the company that purchased e-crypt from them. I think that was just step one to getting a UK company and maybe ultimate takeover and UK AIM listing for SEN.

TheAnalyst · 21 May 2006

Thx 123enen

BOD=Board of Directors..........They seem to be going ape over this on h/c.....how much revenue does sen gain from safenet anyway?? and what would the impact ne on sales say on a worst case scenario??

cheers

123enen · 21 May 2006

SEN total world wide sales of security products in 2005 financial year was $28 Million

Of the total worldwide sales of $28 Million:
- $22 Million was sold by Safenet. Senetas royalties (revenue) for this was $7.6 million.
- $6 million was sold by Senetas within Australia/NZ.

This makes Senetas revenue from security product $13.6 Million ($7.6M + $6M)

SEN get 30% royalty from Safenet. I bet that this was reduced last year but being commercially sensitve - and likely to worry investors - we have not been officialy told.

TheAnalyst · 21 May 2006

123enen said:
SEN total world wide sales of security products in 2005 financial year was $28 Million

Of the total worldwide sales of $28 Million:
- $22 Million was sold by Safenet. Senetas royalties (revenue) for this was $7.6 million.
- $6 million was sold by Senetas within Australia/NZ.

This makes Senetas revenue from security product $13.6 Million ($7.6M + $6M)

SEN get 30% royalty from Safenet. I bet that this was reduced last year but being commercially sensitve - and likely to worry investors - we have not been officialy told.

123enen

This is really bad.....honestly really bad especially of what has been going on over the last few months and sentiment....this equates to more than half of their revenue.....like i said if 35 cents does not hold then there is something else going on that the market is not fully informed to....what do u think???

123enen · 21 May 2006

An enormous amount of dependence on Safenet BUT SEN know it and are actively working to spread the load. They are doing a good job so far.

Biggest problem is a competitor coming up with similar product or development of alternate technology, eg embedded microchips incorporating encryption logarithm - or other forms of embedded hardware.

I will not be surprised if that competition / alternative comes from Safenet itself.

One thing is for sure - SEN will not tell us if that happens - or is happening.

TheAnalyst · 21 May 2006

TheAnalyst said:
well....finally the most positive chart signals for sen have finally arrived as of yesterday:

>firstly it hit 35 cents and just below and where it hit and bounced was the first positive this year as it hit the fibonacci spiral right on target after it did not it did not consolidate at the one before roughly between 45 and 49 cents.

>The next positive was one of the very highly statistical singe bar patterns as you can see on the chart a very long tail and above average stopping volume and a very narrow open and close daily trading range.

>The next fundamental positive has finally arrived as well and the brokers who have been appointed to handle and manage the sen share buyback have came in and started buying at the same place..what a lovely coincidence hey??

>The final one at this stage is the per ratio..it is now at its lowest and there is the highly likely scenario of a massive increase in sales revenue forecast over the next couple of years..the only thing to beware of here is it most likely will have a per that matches the risk of a gradual decline in product sales revenue.

Conclusion

Sen will most likely reach new highs but come down as well and probally the best thing to do is take profits at certian periods and then get out of the stock before it blows you up again.

If it does not hold at the 35 cents support then i am sorry but the stock is in great trouble and there are things going on that are not really being made available at this stage.

I was not aware of the news regarding Safenet over the week end so the last paragraph is now applicable...good luck cos u will need it

Fab · 22 May 2006

What is happening with SEN it is again being massively sold today ? Is there something that is not being disclosed to shareholders about this stock ?? Can anyone explain ?

redandgreen · 22 May 2006

"Lemming" behaviour ....this is exactly why traders lose their heads and their money....rumour and innuendo and following the irrational herd..

Fab · 22 May 2006

IF that is the case then It might become a very good buy soon ???

redandgreen · 22 May 2006

God knows? maybe there is some catastrophic bad news lurking... sufficient to justify a 20% fall in the SP for today alone..not to mention the preceding days and weeks....(I wouldn't have a clue)

sangshim · 22 May 2006

hitting 0.300~0.305.
:swear: :swear: :swear: :swear: :swear:

Fab · 22 May 2006

Redandgreen,

This sounds like insider trading to me ?

Cheers

Profitseeker · 22 May 2006

Just fear. All this is based on a rumor. Don't they say buy on the rumor? Sell on the news.

redandgreen · 22 May 2006

what are your thoughts on the director communique regarding recent SP action?
Comments please.....

Fab · 22 May 2006

After this announcement I am now a buyer on the stock. Just placed on order at 0.295 which I believe should be the low point.

sangshim · 22 May 2006

redandgreen said:
what are your thoughts on the director communique regarding recent SP action?
Comments please.....

One page long comments from directors but I can't find any value in it.
It might prevent further SP falling but.. I'M DOOOOOOMED ALREADY!!!!!

Fab · 22 May 2006

What do you mean by I'M DOOOOOOMED ALREADY!!!!!
I guess if the director says that sales are on track it is a good sign to me that this is an over reaction from the market.

sangshim · 22 May 2006

There has been a couple of announcements confirming sales forecast in last couple of months but the +ve effects lasted for a couple of days only in each time.
SP has dropped more than 30% already... therefore I'M DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED.. don't think it can go back up to 50~60c range in short term... maybe in Aug or Sept... but not in near future...

redandgreen · 22 May 2006

bear in mind that Sen is caught up in the rush to the exit door with a lot of small/micro caps atm.
How much of this selling is Sen specific, who can tell?

Fab · 22 May 2006

I agree it won't go back to 50-60 cents right now. At least not before July but they are a fair bit of order at 0.30 cents which tells me there might be a long term resistance there. Maybe the bottom of this downtrend cycle . Who knows. My view is if this company has no major issues and has some good sells in the pipe line it sounds like a short term reaction from the market. As I invest mid term to long term I am happy to enter at this level.

SEN - Senetas Corporation

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