SEN - Senetas Corporation
- Thread starter Lachlan6
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From My last comment on this stock...
If you compare this chart to SSI....
While the earlier zone looked promising (.27 objective )
masses of volume
little price headway
Price Weakness ----------> distribution
and doesnt the announcement out today confirm ?
But that is a classic scenario... price weakness and then the disappointing news....
I will be looking for signs of accumulation
( Would there be a better time ? )
But at this stage , only looking
You can make a lot of $ getting in on the ground floor of something "good"
But it has to turn out good and there has to be a floor..
So now to see if there is some accumulation
to take this out of this downtrend
and negate the downside objective at .03
Just look at the 2% x 3 for a determined down trend.
Again note the 45 degree movement
Congestion zones have exhausted demand instead of supply.
Accumulation = (informed) early birds...
motorway
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Thought I would update this chart
One might ask update what ?
Not much change ?
Well
The downside objective is fulfilled
And the "character" of the boxes is changing..
it is always the character that makes the difference
I wonder if
Joseph Eggleston Johnston , ever gets his chance with this one
:
... I think he was someone, one could learn from.
That would be how to conduct a campaign Successfully ( Or not all all
)
I would look at the .005 x 1 chart as well now
motorway
One might ask update what ?
Not much change ?
Well
The downside objective is fulfilled
And the "character" of the boxes is changing..
it is always the character that makes the difference
I wonder if
Joseph Eggleston Johnston , ever gets his chance with this one
:... I think he was someone, one could learn from.
That would be how to conduct a campaign Successfully ( Or not all all
)I would look at the .005 x 1 chart as well now
motorway
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Highlight that change on this chart ( very sensitive )
It is 2%x1
The three arrows point to the beginning of
June July and August
( As far as this chart of SEN is concerned )
Where will September be found ?
There is PRICE
VOLUME and TIME
Waves of BUYING and SELLING
Which we can measure
They build followings
and responses
So it is always
motorway dis--- I hold
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When is a bottom a bottom ?
Significant halfway point
The thick red line
is a 45 degree diagonal from the ultimate top
( old P&F saying is never buy a stock going down, if it has been going down
only buy it if it has used up all the energy that is behind the downtrend
ie that it has gone sideways as much as it has gone down ( and of course forms a reversal ) and of course it is the principle not the literal that matters)
sounds like Gann ? But it can't be because it pre dates Gann
the herd gets hypnotized by the extreme swings
but the whose hand holds the pendulum itself
The action at half way points
is key
motorway
Significant halfway point
The thick red line
is a 45 degree diagonal from the ultimate top
( old P&F saying is never buy a stock going down, if it has been going down
only buy it if it has used up all the energy that is behind the downtrend
ie that it has gone sideways as much as it has gone down ( and of course forms a reversal ) and of course it is the principle not the literal that matters)
sounds like Gann ? But it can't be because it pre dates Gann
the herd gets hypnotized by the extreme swings
but the whose hand holds the pendulum itself
The action at half way points
is key
motorway
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Hey Motorway,
My chart shows that this security has dropped way below it's listed price. would u expect a very long term consolidation to build up the cause? ie: to long the stock I mean.
In the mean time, I expect it got range a lot. Is that your thinking too.
My chart shows that this security has dropped way below it's listed price. would u expect a very long term consolidation to build up the cause? ie: to long the stock I mean.
In the mean time, I expect it got range a lot. Is that your thinking too.
Hi Paul
You can not understand a move unless you see it in total context
A great and powerful tool is comparative relative strength
Here are some log P&F charts both 8% x 1
one is the relative chart to the XAO
Rel Str can help define Acc & Dis , Over Bought & Oversold ... Bubble and anti bubble......Whether a move is a deviation back-to or away-from..
Every box in each chart is 8% We can look at thrust halfway points
congestion...
But a simple start is to look at the number of boxes ( ground gained or lost )
on the various phases
Rel chart has 46 boxes down on total move down
normal chart has 49
What would this suggest ?
On the move up from the bottom
both charts have 10 boxes
The rel chart makes a higher high
and pulls back one box...
Congestion on the charts
= differences of opinion
differences of opinion that relate to value
What is value and what determines it ?
Yes those things called fundamentals. But those of tomorrow !
What else ?
The Technical Position
This relates to Who is holding
A congestion zone builds a cause because it creates or destroys value
By resolving the differences of opinion
In part by change of ownership
( strong and weak hands )
What is a something worth if you need to sell it yesterday to pay a mortgage
the magic is that when it changes hands ( weak to strong )
The value changes too... The chart will breakout of the congestion zone
and move to a new zone where once again differences of opinion will emerge
Every Box = an agreement on price , but a disagreement on Value
It is starting to rally with the overall market
and hold ground when the market declines
I will be looking for this to continue..
Both charts display a grinding downtrend
from 2006
The relative chart
shows a reversal
A SOS would be very
significant Now
A move to .05 would be significant
motorway
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I understand what you mean Motorway however what I am not clear about is the fact that the security did not rebound until late december rather than in November. Do you then say that this security is not as strong as the index? Granted that the bounce is stronger when it did.
Do you pay more attention to those which bounces earlier than the index? I'm thinking along the lines of the stronger stocks are held by the strong hands and supporting it on every fall while the weaker ones are supported later. Therefore in my interest to what those closely.
regards
paul
Do you pay more attention to those which bounces earlier than the index? I'm thinking along the lines of the stronger stocks are held by the strong hands and supporting it on every fall while the weaker ones are supported later. Therefore in my interest to what those closely.
regards
paul
In going long esp look at the down waves
Always look for hidden demand and supply
At the other side becoming active....
eg in looking at thrust observe when it shortens
Then watch the half way points
Same principles apply to Relative Strength..
When the market moves down then look for strength
When the market is moving up then look for weakness
Looking for strength or weakness to emerge...
So August 2008 is where the downtrend ended
and where the demand Volume became evident...
The technical position of the Market is important
( new strength old strength eg rel strength at a market top Vs bottom ?
So not all strength is good strength)
After Aug 08 both charts move up to a Sept high
Now measure the boxes on the move down to the Dec low
What Index in the USA is strongest ?
Paul you will recognize this quote
you read recently
The waves of buying and selling
of the composite man are the key
it is they that reveal ( They are the reality )
Bar charts are a linear filter with respect to time
But a non linear filter with respect to the waves of the CM
( The real point of interest is looking at the volume, really filtering with volume )
P&F is a non linear filter with respect to time but a linear filter with respect to the CM.. It moves across lockstep with the moves of the CM whatever the time.
SEN might need to see a 300 pt rally in the XAO to get going
( as many small and micro stocks might need )
inorder to see a significant SOS...
demand met supply from July 08
the DEC low was after the November panic
on lower volume and higher relative strength
Now does the stock become active and respond along with the broader market while retaining relative strength ?
If so there could be a good story unfold
DYOR
motorway
Always look for hidden demand and supply
At the other side becoming active....
eg in looking at thrust observe when it shortens
Then watch the half way points
Same principles apply to Relative Strength..
When the market moves down then look for strength
When the market is moving up then look for weakness
Looking for strength or weakness to emerge...
So August 2008 is where the downtrend ended
and where the demand Volume became evident...
The technical position of the Market is important
( new strength old strength eg rel strength at a market top Vs bottom ?
So not all strength is good strength)
After Aug 08 both charts move up to a Sept high
Now measure the boxes on the move down to the Dec low
What Index in the USA is strongest ?
Paul you will recognize this quote
you read recently
The waves of buying and selling
of the composite man are the key
it is they that reveal ( They are the reality )
Bar charts are a linear filter with respect to time
But a non linear filter with respect to the waves of the CM
( The real point of interest is looking at the volume, really filtering with volume )
P&F is a non linear filter with respect to time but a linear filter with respect to the CM.. It moves across lockstep with the moves of the CM whatever the time.
SEN might need to see a 300 pt rally in the XAO to get going
( as many small and micro stocks might need )
inorder to see a significant SOS...
demand met supply from July 08
the DEC low was after the November panic
on lower volume and higher relative strength
Now does the stock become active and respond along with the broader market while retaining relative strength ?
If so there could be a good story unfold
DYOR
motorway
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Judging by the technical babble still going on regarding Senetas, clearly there's still some speculators out there that haven't yet done their nuts on this one. Agreed DYOR. Read the past annual reports and note how excessively directors pat themselves on the back for making and paying relatively insignificant gains and dividends. If at all.
Only ones that do not look at charts
or better and more accurate what they reveal
Another look at the relative strength
motorway
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Maybe --
POSITION
Where from and where to
How quick is the shadow of the past left behind
This prior down trend and overall mkt too ---Ever ?
IT takes WORK
That is what the chart ,charts ---work
Work done is ?
Price has fallen from the recent congestion
( Expected ? first moves up in many small caps will find sellers )
But at the moment has formed a higher LOW
And is building potentially a reversal formation
If you are correct " maybe a bargain"
This zone is a buy zone ( generic chart pattern )
But is it in this particular example
Your call
Two charts
3 and 1 reversal
BASE BUILDING
Buying in a BASE ( only if it is a BASE
)Is a primary buying set up
A point of support after a sign of strength
1 rev chart is potentially breaking a diagonal line
( see how price moved along those diagonals in the past )
The work also needs to clear the over head resistance
motorway
I am holding some atm
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Thanks Motorway, I am going to buy, can't help myself with this one, they have to turn the corner soon and have released some good products recently. 2.9cents is my favourite as I bought a stack of CXY and sold out at 25cents. Let's hope the same works with this one.
Freddy
Freddy
Well at this Stage .029 was a good entry
Definitely the behaviour has changed
ATM no more down trend
Accumulation
I hold But it is early
motorway
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Just one more column since the last chart
I have marked the main swings that have made "THE BOTTOM" dyor
I think it looks positive
With support coming in at higher levels
But It is still early
A move back to .05 without a move back below .04
would be a sign of strength
and form a pattern that suggest active accumulation
The quicker that happens the stronger the signal
from there it could back and fill again in one box moves
or move above .05 and make things really interesting
motorway
