SEN - Senetas Corporation

[Fab]

I don't know their product but I have held SEN for over 1 year and it has been one of my worst performing stock having said that it looks like it has found a bottom around 10 cents and is turning back at the moment so it might be a very good entry point.

I am holding

 

[moneymajix]

Up over 12% to 13.5c. Next seller at 14c.

Lot of volume today.

Director buying recently.


http://www.senetas.com/

Senetas Corporation Limited, the world’s leading developer and supplier of high speed network encryption hardware, today announced it was awarded the prestigious Australian Information Industry Association (AIIA) iAward for its security technology.

Senetas was nominated for its Gigabit Hybrid Quantum Encryption technology developed with its Swiss technology partner, id Quantique... More >

 

[juw177]

Wow, thanks for the heads up. This setup is tip top technical wise showing stopping volume on down days and a reversing falling wedge (i think thats the name) in the last months. The director buying only makes this more attractive. In I go on the intraday high close.

 

[Fab]

Indeed that is a very good sign up almost 21% today with directors buying into it. It must be going up again

 

[SevenFX]

It must be going up again

Fab,

Can you tell me which way the Daily, Weekly & Monthly Trend is heading, or what are the confirmation signs you are looking at...????

As I can see all the trends pointing in the same direction...????

Thanks
SevenFX

 

[juw177]

True Tek.
But MACD has crossed over, it has broken out of its trading range and on good volume today. Looking for breaking 15c and confirmation of support at 15c then it will have broken out.

 

[SevenFX]

Opps... looking at the right share chart may be a good idea...so appologies.

Anyway though SEN looks good, it hasn't had much good news lately and will have a lot of overhead resistance ahead, not to mention market pressure.

It may be good for a short run, but short these days differs greatly from short 6months ago... IMO

Back onto the right stock
Cheers
SevenFX

 

[motorway]

A couple of charts to look at..

Daily Bar Chart

Two points of significance
The first large Volume Bar
In context has a climatic look about it.

What was the follow through on the downside since all that selling(?)

What context does the subsequent action provide
esp todays bar ?

The last bar sits at the top of a rally from the low

The horizontal line second from the bottom looks significant
A little upthrust at resistance and then a little jump..

Could all the action now seen to be accumulation ?
Is there a change of behaviour

Taking those points off the Bar chart

What do We see on the P&F chart

early days

Congestion tighter ?
Some change to sideways ?

motorway

 

[Fab]

Fab,

Can you tell me which way the Daily, Weekly & Monthly Trend is heading, or what are the confirmation signs you are looking at...????

As I can see all the trends pointing in the same direction...????

Thanks
SevenFX

My main sign was that I think the bad news are behind them surely it can not get worse for them. Also 2 directors have recently purchased some more SEN shares so I believe this might be a strong sign of a positive change of fortume for SEN. About time I think

 

[moneymajix]

16c

Up over 10% this morning. The move north continues.

Still no news. Interesting that directors are buying, too.

 

[Fab]

Another 14% up at the moment. Something is happening there. Big volume too for the second day in the row. Not sure yet what is going on but it looks like I am not the only one who think that they were bottoming 2 days ago

 

[moneymajix]

Announcement

Speeding Ticket response

Not aware of any reason for recent trading activity.


Currently 15.5c

 

[juw177]

Looks like we will be looking at the third day in a row where this closes on its intraday high. I was expecting a bit more consolidation on a day where the DOW got smashed. Anyone know of any pending news?

 

[motorway]

early days

Looking now for a "last point of support"

The Green uptrend channel is anticipatory of that "point" of support.

The points of interest on the Bar chart are the reference points for the upside "implication" on the P&F chart .

A last point of support
Is needed to confirm the Sign of strength

A SOS and a LPS
are one way a zone of congestion can be confirmed as in fact being accumulation and for that accumulation to seen to be concluded.


motorway

 

[juw177]

The support point in Motorway's post has held and now that the shakeout is done, the SP is bouncing back strong. Up 17% today at 14c.

 

[motorway]

Hi juw

In a sense it is still early days

BUT ! imo There is a clear pattern of accumulation happening..

To focus on that pattern here is a 1 box reversal P&F chart
With just the fluctuations as demand and supply meet and take it in turns to overcome each other...

sequence

supply overcoming demand - the flow of prices moving down the trend channel.
demand meeting supply - support visible , mid pattern rally , higher supports, the flow of price has a floor and is moving sideways ( from the support line to the resistance line )

EQULIBRIUM...

early days because the question is how close is the chart to the Right hand edge, where accumulation ends because there is no-more supply at these prices and some degree of mark up must follow..

Buyers at this stage are still finding sellers .

One good sign is the drying up of volume with the higher supports holding..

So it comes down to a timing issue
and opportunity cost..

The tentative trend channel on the vertical Bar Chart
Did not define a line of least resistance
Because there was too much resistance ( selling pressure.. supply )..

The pattern on this chart is called a Fulcrum ( called "Ideal" )

"a support that supplies a capability for action "

It's name is unimportant
The demand and supply relationships it signifies are..

The pattern so far has taken 5 mths to form... ( It unfolds in it's own time )

5 mths for fundamentals to be seen to be changed
5 mths for change of ownership to occur
5 mths for sentiment and contingency to crystallize..

I am Holding some... In on the ground floor ? We will see .
When ( IF ) the mid pattern rally is cleared...It is called a catapult point
At that point The upside implication in the pattern becomes triggered... ( 45 degree Movement )

Then the price volume relationships become very important..

motorway

 

[motorway]

The tentative trend channel on the vertical Bar Chart
Did not define a line of least resistance
Because there was too much resistance ( selling pressure.. supply )..

Well It really is not making a bad fist of it. So maybe I was a bit harsh in that judgement. Still only a tentative trend channel But it was a nice demand bar today.

Still Early Days

motorway

 

[motorway]

When dealing with a stock in a determined downtrend..

Tactics must be appropriate ( as always )

I do not wish to follow or fade the crowd

Or to esp engage the bears when they have the upper hand..

We need the tactics of a Joseph Eggleston Johnston rather than John B. Hood

( military campaigns have much in common with stock market ones..All about demand and supply lines )

There is price volume and time... These alone indicate the critical junctures.
Like Johnston I see the task as only engaging ( in the trade ) when the probability of success is high... Keeping ones powder dry till then is paramount ..

The most important goal is the preservation of capital. Every time a market is entered capital is put at risk. Richard D Wyckoff

Some charts of interest
A "test" of the August lows


Still early days
tentative proved to be so

after this test ?

Nice pattern on the 1 box chart ?

3box ( rev ) chart displays that bulls have been up against William T. Sherman. LOOK at those downtrend lines...
recent action is suggestive of "finding a bottom"

Now a SOS would be nice ( sign of strength )
motorway

 

[bandicoot]

Nice charts.

Senetas doesn't know how to market itself in the big league. That's why the stock has gone into the toilet. Wiring up a voting booth in Switzerland? Flogging a couple of boxes to some slack-jawed, damp-collared politicrat in Vietnam? They must be joking. This is the result of Senetas 'not needing' Safenet (or a replacement). Senetas believed that having world class tech, meant they could succeed on the world market alone, all on their lonesome, on the big bad sea. Now they're on a slow boat to commercial irrelevance.
Have a look at a recent presentation to analysts, mapping out their 'strategic vision.'
I don't remember all the phrases used, but it's just as well because I nearly shat myself laughing (not as amusing as it may sound).

The same management who straight faced presented that 'going forward' double speak are the same bunch of monkeys steering the company's marketing efforts and R&D.

It's a waste, because behind those powerpoint-pin-heads there are some genuinely smart people. Power Geeks, I think they're called.

In the US, Senetas would have seen ten dollars before being snapped up by HP, EMC, or CSCO at twenty dollars. As of date, Senetas is trading just above six cents. What a bunch of losers.

 

[UMike]

Dunno about that. They have been historically marketing themselves highly but not delivering the results.

I have no doubts that the company should be higher than it currently is but they need to prove they are capable of and will deliver profitable results.

until then SEN will languish around the sp that they are.