SEN - Senetas Corporation

Yea it might be a dog but it is an oversold dog.

Strong buying again today. I bet we'll see an announcement shortly.

It's 10.5c from its low not long ago.

Watch this one!

Up 7% today in good volume that is a bit new for SEN. Is there something happening behind the scene that we don't know about ??

Fab, I honestly hope so. This is THE most frustrating share to own, however, we live in hope and its now such a small part of the portfolio the world won't come to an end it nothing happens but GEE it showed promise and then just kept going south!!!! We must be due for a change of direction surely.

Hello Sen watchers and followers

It is the sort of stock that could be a good turnaround

What do I see

I see the downtrend becoming dubious
I see at this stage a successful test of the recent low
With some Volume off the bottom
I see SEN finally ( maybe ) found some equilibrium where a potential move can build , A trading range...

Now all We have to do is be sure of our time frame ( A short termer maybe had a buy signal already ) and identify the right hand edge.. Where range gives way to trend..

The red channel was a valid downtrend channel
The blue channel was created by a reverse use of trend line..
As was the green channel..

A shallower Valid downtrend channel could be drawn using the last two rally peaks.. This is the main one I would be working with ( But I thought I would leave the chart as I had been working with it )..

I can draw support and resistance lines also now in Brown
these maybe the most important.

The price action in the circle looked positive
But it was really nothing..
It showed little demand and sellers waiting to pull the trigger.
The last three bars are positive
We see a sign of strength ,of demand being seen to overcome the supply at that point... It Sets up our trading range..

The secondary test had a lower volume and a higher price.
Good action in the last bar..

The lines are all valid... They are to judge character...
But like a carpenters straight edge.. They don't construct anything on their own... But If We want to see the straight in the curved and the curved in the straight .. If We want to judge Where the character changes...
We almost can not do without them ( Some pretty wonky buildings would result if the straight edge was not the guide )

cheers
motorway

Hi there, I'm interested in this share, read your posting but frankly I'm out of my depth trying to decipher it.
could you state your view a bit more easily for me?
Thanks

Hello irish

While at every trade the number of shares bought and sold is the same..
The eagerness of buyers or the distress of sellers means that
beyond that simple fact.. or above and below the last price there is always buying and selling pressure..

If supply exceeds demand it will continue to overcome demand..

Prices will FALL... But they will not just fall immediately or smoothly in a straight line... Prices travel in WAVES as in turn buying and selling gathers and loses a following...

All those buying and selling have their reasons..

They all have different time frames, information and a stating point ( Their cost price ) .

A sequence of waves make up a trend...
As Trends unfold they run their course .. Information is behind them .. Information is dispersed by them..

Everyone knows at the top What they should have bought
Everyone knows at the bottom what they should have sold

Only those who really know , know in between or at or near the beginning of the trends.

The SEN chart has been in a downtrend
The people buying have not initiated any new trends.

There as been little sign of a reality here that says Good things are here and they are near..

My comments are observations about the trend and the waves in the trend.
The selling and buying pressure .

You see the lowest point on the chart
Volume increased but the price moved up off that low..

How ? Buying pressure ... DEMAND

You see the current low ?
Again You see the volume increase
A slightly HIGHER low ? Slightly LOWER volume ?
AGAIN demand , buying pressure.

But this time more URGENT... Buyers did not wait for lower prices
And When they bought there was less quantity to buy..

SO signs of Buyers becoming more keen and urgent and the sellers LESS..

The down waves at this moment are losing a following
the up waves are gathering a following

That is what was the successful test of the low..
( A secondary test )

Think of the tides of the sea

The waves go back and forth but the tide surges in
At the peak The tide is stationary Waves still go back and forth.

But their behavior changes

My post is a comment on the waves and the tide
Not with any theoretical overlay ( elliot ) But as they are..
I can only catch real waves and real tides.

Each wave is a test of demand and supply
Richard Wyckoff in the quote from below
states that the responses reveal the technical position

When all who would sell have sold
Then We will have a strong technical position
The waves will look different when there is no longer any selling pressure.

there will be a trading range ..

Now We look to the response from this test.. What happens in the rally .. How much of a following will it gather ? What response will it in turn generate ? duration , Volume ,the relative strength compared to previous ..

This form of analysis

Is called the Wyckoff Method
named after Richard Wyckoff

hope that helps..



cheers
motorway

thankyou very much for all that.

you certainly put it all very eloquently. Much appreciated.

Irish

A shallower Valid downtrend channel could be drawn using the last two rally peaks.. This is the main one I would be working with ( But I thought I would leave the chart as I had been working with it )..

Click to expand...

So here is everything as I see made sensitive..

I posted some links to accumulation / distribution schematics

briefly

Preliminary support.... First sign of strong demand .. Doesn't turn the trend
But someone is buying and the continuation of the trend is now qualified..

Selling Climax.... Point where where demand was seen to overcome supply.. and maybe is the termination point.

Automatic rally.... Drift upwards created by the vacuum in selling pressure. No strong demand

secondary test.... A test of the buying that was in the climax .. Is the stock being bought and held .. Do We see continued sign of change in demand supply equation... ( At this stage yes )

The last bar shows strength .. It is a strong bar .. good response from the test..

The blue channel is defining the immediate trend
The green trend line is a reverse use of trend line
It is the angle where demand the opposite force has been seen to emerge.

The interaction with the upper channel line will set up a possible apex..

Do I have a Buy signal

For me NO..

But strong signs that the downtrend is dubious
and nice action in the last bar

( limited downside is good to see.. But I need to see signs of possible upside too
or why buy SEN ? )

Up 7% today in good volume that is a bit new for SEN. Is there something happening behind the scene that we don't know about ??

Click to expand...

Exactly... And the subsequent action will reveal..

SEN is atm in a trading range
further tests will reveal if it is accumulation

If so the action from the PS is generating the potential that will power a mark up phase.

I have various things to look at from this point..

cheers
motorway

I hate to disagree with your analysis but SEN has a history of disappointing people over many years. Its a wet pessimistic doggie with an optimistic board whose tail keeps on wagging in the face of a relentless downward trajectory.

The asx announcements on this stock over the last two years read like a Monty Python sketch with losses and mistimings being explained with a vigour befitting a brace of Brians.

Any in depth analysis of SEN over the past few months should be accompanied by a look at its performance since 2000, as displayed on this weekly chart.

My guess would be and I hope I'm wrong for its supporters is that it will dribble along this level or a lower support for a long time before it moves up again, if it ever does.

Sorry to be so pessimistic , but all I can see on this weekly chart are lower lows and lower highs with a dramatic falloff in volume signifying that buyers are scarce and that sellers may become desperate in the weeks to come.

Do I have a Buy signal

For me NO..

But strong signs that the downtrend is dubious
and nice action in the last bar

( limited downside is good to see.. But I need to see signs of possible upside too
or why buy SEN ? )

Click to expand...

Still watching still waiting
one thing with stocks in SENs situation is
TAX loss selling ..
Always a two sided coin
represents opputunity
for those that might see value..

I still have NO buy signal
last bar made a lower low
with reasonable spread down
good volume and a close at the low

This IS a good test
Next week We see the response...

At the moment At best I see SEN still in a trading range..
See what the response is next week...

SEN is atm in a trading range
further tests will reveal if it is accumulation

Click to expand...

Still to pass the test


motorway

Another important point
regarding the chart..

Is that the last attempted rally was so weak
It could not make it at least to the red trend line..

Significant sign of weakness

motorway

This just keeps on dropping with quite a lot of volume today, particularly since 2pm. Anyone know what's going on or why so many are bailing out?

As a past SEN holder I'd think that this is as low as they'd ever go.(I haven't checked out for any ann's for this stock recently.)

However I just don't trust this Company anymore and reckon there are too many traders with inside info for a general trader to confidently pick the bottom of this stock.

I really feel for any holders.

UMike said:

As a past SEN holder I'd think that this is as low as they'd ever go.(I haven't checked out for any ann's for this stock recently.)

However I just don't trust this Company anymore and reckon there are too many traders with inside info for a general trader to confidently pick the bottom of this stock.

I really feel for any holders.

Click to expand...

Yes I am starting to be feeling like that too. I believe the selling is more due to end of year selling to offset possible CGT as SEN must have one of the worse performing stock this year on the ASX

Technically (SEN) is very sick. It has just completed a descending triangle pattern with the bearish break through it yesterday to close at $0.16 on big volume. I am thinking that all time lows are not out of the question with SEN, but regardless, this is not one that I would want to be in at the moment. Notice how there really is not that much volume on those little rallies up in March and April, yet the volume on the downward moves is huge. A real sign the smart money is getting out of SEN.

Lachlan6 said:

Technically (SEN) is very sick. It has just completed a descending triangle pattern with the bearish break through it yesterday to close at $0.16 on big volume. I am thinking that all time lows are not out of the question with SEN, but regardless, this is not one that I would want to be in at the moment. Notice how there really is not that much volume on those little rallies up in March and April, yet the volume on the downward moves is huge. A real sign the smart money is getting out of SEN.

Click to expand...

Does not really look good indeed. I am wondering if the downtrend in not amplified by the fact that there is some loss taking sell to offset the gain of this financial year which makes the share price going further down.

But where is volume located in those down waves

Is it initiating or is it stopping

I would argue their has been accumulation since the 9th Jan

That does not mean prices go up it is
better in fact that it goes down.

what about Now
A Final culmination ?

We what to see at least a lateral move that now respects support
Or some sort of bounce...............

too early for Me to start buying
But obviously not for others

Just a view and opinion..

motorway

SP is above 52 wk low
SEN 0.097 -0.001 -1.02% 563,137 shares $53,577 @ 29-Aug 04:10:38 PM
52-wk High 0.5200
52-wk Low 0.0770

SEN asx ann today
29/08/2007 Preliminary Final Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00753748

Senetas reports FY 2007 results
Full year results to 30 June 2007:
• $14.2 million net loss before tax
• Earnings affected by below budget royalties, one off and recurring costs:
o $1.5 million lower than expected O/S distributor results
o One-off costs

• $9.6 million write-down of InfoProtect investment
• $800K write-down of US manufacturing licence
• $500K M&A costs
• $400K technology compliance cost

o Recurring costs

• $2.0 million R&D investment to maintain market lead

o Expanded global sales channels
o New world-leading products in development
The Board of Senetas Corporation Limited (ASX: SEN), today announced a loss before
tax of $14.2 million on total revenues of $11 million for the period ended June 30, 2007.Senetas reports FY 2007 results
Full year results to 30 June 2007:
• $14.2 million net loss before tax
• Earnings affected by below budget royalties, one off and recurring costs:
o $1.5 million lower than expected O/S distributor results
o One-off costs

• $9.6 million write-down of InfoProtect investment
• $800K write-down of US manufacturing licence
• $500K M&A costs
• $400K technology compliance cost

o Recurring costs
$2.0 million R&D investment to maintain market lead
• Restructure complete, Senetas remains debt free
o Expanded global sales channels
o New world-leading products in development

The Board of Senetas Corporation Limited (ASX: SEN), today announced a loss before tax of $14.2 million on total revenues of $11 million for the period ended June 30, 2007.

Outlook
Senetas Chairman, Alan Stockdale said that the normal cycle for sales of Layer 2 encryption devices into the enterprise and government markets is generally around 12-18 months. As a result, the company expects the reseller agreements negotiated through 2007 to begin generating revenue from the 2008 year.

He said Senetas was generating new revenues from maintenance support now sold to users of the CypherNet platform - which includes SafeNet’s licensed high speed encryptor technology.

This is already flowing to Senetas and will deliver significant revenue during 2008. Mr Stockdale said the Board expected sales revenue to grow throughout the year, with the company returning a profit FY2008. He said more specific guidance will be provided at the Senetas AGM in October.

Post from an inexperienced 'investor', but I have watched these guys for about 6 weeks or so and coming from an IT background, they appear to have a very good product technically speaking. I stress I do not hold yet, I am waiting on at least two ann's that they have good customers on deck first. However technically, the explanations they have produced within their briefs through ann's have appeared technically correct and appealing to certain markets - European defence comes to mind. As always I have not come to the table with good fundamentals in the form of charting etc as I have no experience in that arena, however technically, they appear to have a good product and I continue to wait.