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SELL EVERYTHING!!! says Dow Theorist
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and even more relevant since Greece helped to discredit the stability of the Euro
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Bill M
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I hope not explod, the world will be in a terrible mess if it does. By the way, if the markets, housing, commodities and even the banks aren't safe places any more where does one put his hard earnt? Where is it safe? A slab of physical gold under the bed or in your 23kg safe at home isn't safe as I'm sure you would agree, any ideas?
explod
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I hope not explod, the world will be in a terrible mess if it does. By the way, if the markets, housing, commodities and even the banks aren't safe places any more where does one put his hard earnt? Where is it safe? A slab of physical gold under the bed or in your 23kg safe at home isn't safe as I'm sure you would agree, any ideas?
Stockpile the backed beans, grow some spuds and build a very high fence.
Oh and bury the gold 4 foot down in a plastic shopping bag and dig it up when everyone else has perished or, if you do have to venture down to the pub, dig it up at night time on a new moon.
But it is worth looking back over the dow chart and comparing it to others that have gone from something to nothing. We will be shown the way.
Bill M
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I have been watching a few long term so called experts that predict a crash of this magnitude. These people say that there is a lot of baby boomers who will be cashing in all their chips within the next 2 years. There seems to be some merit to the argument.
Every single person I know doesn't trust superannuation and the share market. They have lost huge amounts of monies from their funds and they are not in an investing and trusting mood. A lot will cash in if the markets jump again and these jokers that see into the future could be right.
I prefer to think for myself, I do not think the world will come to an end. Sure it is messy right now but my old Mother survived the Great Depression and WW2 and everything that followed there after and this is nothing like that.
I am hanging on to my investment property and my shares and as shares drop further I will buy more good quality stock. A point will come in time when my cash for investments is exhausted but not before I have 10% gross income from what I am buying. I am very patient and if cheaper prices don't come my way then 6% at call is looking good, cheers.
Every single person I know doesn't trust superannuation and the share market. They have lost huge amounts of monies from their funds and they are not in an investing and trusting mood. A lot will cash in if the markets jump again and these jokers that see into the future could be right.
I prefer to think for myself, I do not think the world will come to an end. Sure it is messy right now but my old Mother survived the Great Depression and WW2 and everything that followed there after and this is nothing like that.
I am hanging on to my investment property and my shares and as shares drop further I will buy more good quality stock. A point will come in time when my cash for investments is exhausted but not before I have 10% gross income from what I am buying. I am very patient and if cheaper prices don't come my way then 6% at call is looking good, cheers.
So_Cynical
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BUY EVERYTHING!!! says ASX watcher...
[size=-4]Well, SOMEONE has been...since 11.15am[/size]
Hey, sir Osi's post was about then too.... hmmm????
My little PFL buy order was filled at 11.20
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NO WORRIES! Ye're, and I'm not taking the urinal here. What the hell was the reason for this sharp correction, well, a lot of people bought into the talk that there was going to be a correction, so they sold, and bingo the correction happened.
What of Greece then? To hell with Greece; one it's small and wont have much effect on anyone except the Eurozone.
The States, Germany and Japan are doing better now and that easily offsets the little failures. Just as if a small company is in financial trouble and Dad, Grandad, Uncles and Aunie pile in cash to save it; what do you mean? - well that's much like Greece.
Where's my confidence then? I bought stock Thursday and Friday to take my cash levels to 50%, that's 20% below my usual 70% level. Hell, do I see a crash; NO! I see an opportunity.
What of Greece then? To hell with Greece; one it's small and wont have much effect on anyone except the Eurozone.
The States, Germany and Japan are doing better now and that easily offsets the little failures. Just as if a small company is in financial trouble and Dad, Grandad, Uncles and Aunie pile in cash to save it; what do you mean? - well that's much like Greece.
Where's my confidence then? I bought stock Thursday and Friday to take my cash levels to 50%, that's 20% below my usual 70% level. Hell, do I see a crash; NO! I see an opportunity.
Julia
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And what do they suggest those baby boomers will do with the cash?
They are still going to need to derive an income.
"Doesn't trust superannuation"?????Super is simply a tax-advantaged vehicle in which to hold assets. It is not an investment of itself. Its success or otherwise depends on the choice of assets held in the super fund, and the proper timing in management of these.
To say that someone doesn't trust superannuation just doesn't make sense.
I'm puzzled by the idea that anyone would 'trust the markets'. No one ever promised them that by buying shares (within or outside Super) meant that they would always make money if they didn't take the trouble to acquire some financial education and manage the shares accordingly.
I can understand someone saying they will no longer trust their financial adviser, but it just doesn't apply to 'the market'.
So far that's true. However, I'm reminded with some of the optimistic comments of all the experts who at the start of the GFC said "oh, subprime won't affect anyone outside of the US. It's nothing really. And we're decoupled from the US, anyway."
Didn't quite turn out that way, did it!
There's an excellent article by Paul Kelly in "The Australian" on, I think, Wednesday 19 May, where he describes people who dismiss the ramifications of the Europe situation as fools.
Each to his own. Personally, I prefer to protect my profits and my capital and stay in cash until it's all sorted. Probably I have a poor appetite for risk.
You may be right. A lot of people would disagree with you. I find it hard to see that shifting around the debt, thus contaminating the balance sheets of nations healthier than Greece et al, is any real solution.
For the last nearly three years, there has been bandaid after bandaid, artificial stimulation of markets to keep things afloat. Do we all really think that this can go on for ever - more and more bailing out?
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But according to the " buy with open arms " thread .um you been buying from the recent HIGHS all the way down........
funny place the internet .
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Much of investment is looking back in history. I remember the events in 1973-76 during the great crash. This was the end, they said; hell, it wasn't. A great boom followed and the biggest mining boom in the history of the planet Earth.
People talked in profit terms in 10 baggers. Many stocks shot up to 100 baggers. The new world had arrived. It's different this time, they said. Upwards, onwards for ever. Hell it wasn't. The biggest mining collapse in the history of planet Earth. followed.
Up they went again and collapsed in 1987. So on and so forth.
Stock prices. imho, are dirt cheap and a boom will arrive and when it couldn't happen, a collapse will follow.
As to debt: What is it? I think a countries debts depend upon all the assets held by every person in the country. The UK is in the debts doo doo, - or is it really? No, as its assets owned abroad are 4 times all the debts. That's what it is all about really; you can owe $3 trillion but if all your assets add up to $10 trillion then you have zero short term problems.
Greece is a bit different as its assets are in doubt. Still, there are many historical parts of Greece which they could hive off for a fortune.
Aussie stocks appear very cheap and some like Woolworth, and many more of course, are worth $40 a share. I think, imho, Woolworth know this and their buyback goes on.
The collapse of 2000/2001 desimated markets, imho imho, a boom is yet to come.
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I don't trust it for the simple reason that government, not me, is largely in control. They could announce tomorrow that it is locked up until I'm 70, 80 or 100 years old if government so chooses. That's a huge risk over and above the normal market risks of investing.
Bill M
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He is suggesting people liquidate their investment properties and stocks and go to cash and when the depression hits you will be able to buy assets very very cheap.
From the hsdent website:
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Between mid to late 2009 and mid to late 2012, the U.S. will see the next Great Depression and the deflation of the “three bears,” bubbles in stocks, housing, and commodities. This occurrence will represent the de-leveraging of the greatest credit bubble in history and will have much greater effects
than we have seen thus far on banking and financial systems. Americans will see the first and last “Great Depression” of most of our lifetimes. Most people simply are not prepared for this coming dramatic change in our economy.
---
Click here for that link
Unfortunately the average Australian hasn't much of a clue about investments and only a bit of a clue about superannuation. Most of them have never heard of ASF and have no interest in reading similar forums. Simple comment over the fence to my neighbour the other day, he is a mechanic. I said I am loading up my super and he said mines gone down, there is no point putting money into that. Loads of younger Aussies think like that and if I was 30 with 30 years to go I probably would too.
Classic case, a mate of mine retired about 3 years ago. He knows nothing about finance but was a good property investor. His super was not going to pay him anything for 3 years so he went to a financial planner who suggested he buy a basket of shares with the cash he had left to see him through. That basket went down 50% in value and is probably still down about 30%, he said to me that he will never ever put another $1 into any shares again. He says it was the biggest rip off investment he had ever had. There are heaps of people who think like this. I have other friends who have suggested that the stockmarket is nothing more than just a gambling den. They refuse to listen to any rational argument and will not invest in it.
No doubt, anything the US markets do we shall follow. Decoupled? little old Australia and it's 1.75% of the whole world economy? Never, I agree.
Considering what happened when the all ords hit 3100 and the ridiculously low valuation of our stock market I did quite well. I always buy at lower prices and not when the market is reaching tops. The hard part is trying to pick those lows. lets use CBA as an example, no one was buying it when it was $26, not even when it was a share purchase plan at a discount and yet 12 Months later some people were paying $60 for it.
I bought heaps of it in the $20's and some in the 40's then I bought that house and I sold the lot in the $50's. It's all about buying low when blood is in the streets and everyone is panicking for no real reason.That is exactly right and they did this already once. 23 years ago I walked into The Colonial Mutual Head office in Sydney and saw someone about getting a super plan going. The advisor told me how the money would accumulate and how much I would have at age 55. He said that I could withdraw the lot at age 55. Then in the 90's the government of the day changed the rules and made the withdrawal age 60. Luckily it does not affect me because I was born before July 1960 but anyone say 30 or 40 y/o now has to wait until 60, they were lied too. What next as you say? 65? 70? 80?I don't trust it for the simple reason that government, not me, is largely in control. They could announce tomorrow that it is locked up until I'm 70, 80 or 100 years old if government so chooses. That's a huge risk over and above the normal market risks of investing.
explod
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Bill M, what a very good post, thanks for sharing your insights and I think you are spot on.
In particular as the words go "some people yar just caant reach"
And my sardonic comment a few posts back was unfair. I believe physical bullion to be a very good investment at this time and I keep my silver in a personal access bank vault.
In particular as the words go "some people yar just caant reach"
And my sardonic comment a few posts back was unfair. I believe physical bullion to be a very good investment at this time and I keep my silver in a personal access bank vault.
Bill M
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By the way, I just read an article in the Commsec Market Bulletin that just goes to show how much some people care about their super.
According to the ATO at the end of the last financial year there was $13.5 Billion dollars value of lost super in Australia, Unbelievable.
Julia
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That's a reasonable point and as I'm already using my Super, one I wasn't thinking about.I don't trust it for the simple reason that government, not me, is largely in control. They could announce tomorrow that it is locked up until I'm 70, 80 or 100 years old if government so chooses. That's a huge risk over and above the normal market risks of investing.
But everyone is still going to have to save for their retirement, whenever that occurs. What I was suggesting is that people need to become more involved in managing their Super and either have a SMSF where they can make decisions re asset allocation all the time, or understand markets enough to give their public Super fund appropriate direction.
No one (so far!) has suggested all personal savings have to go into Super, but for someone on the highest personal tax rate, it makes good sense to have some taxed at just 15%.
However, given the ageing population, I guess it's not impossible that the preservation age will be extended, along with the official retirement age.
Sounds dire, doesn't it! If he's only just now suggesting liquidating stocks when we've had a fall in the XAO of around 15% and could be at or close to a bottom (for now), that's just locking in losses.
I can't comment about investment property as I haven't had any for some time, but would be far more inclined to hold that through any market corrections.
But if you moved to cash a couple of weeks ago, then obviously you're in a good position to buy some cheap stocks. All I'm suggesting is that this strategy beats buy and hold through thick and thin because by preserving your capital you have the capacity to buy more shares (and hence derive more dividend income if that's important to you) than you had before.
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That's undoubtedly true, Bill. In fact I recall when I was about 30 joining a new company and being offered participation in the Super scheme. I rejected it totally with the preference of making my own provision for the years ahead.
Your other example is, I know, also typical.
I suppose I'm just protesting against this widespread ignorance and reluctance to take some responsibility for financial outcomes.
Perhaps I'm being too tough, but to me it's another symptom of how too many people expect governments and society at large to take responsibility for looking after them.
The current petition from Storm Financial clients to be compensated for their losses by the taxpayer is a case in point.
Why should those who are financially responsible necessarily have to provide for those who just can't be bothered to educate themselves?
Too much of a socialist philosophy for me.
It's one thing to help those unable to help themselves, e.g. the sick, disabled, genuinely disadvantaged and I'm all for way more of this happening, but I'm just getting damn sick of people who are irresponsible wanting others to make it all better for them.
Apologies for the rant.
professor_frink
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here's another great example of that happening in the DOW. This great divergence trade saw the DOW up near 1000 a few years later
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