SELL EVERYTHING!!! says Dow Theorist

[Monario]

Then you have no idea about what fundamentally moves markets. Flow of risk capital. Its clear to see were its flowing from and to.

Trembling, I totaly understand that!! what I dont understand is how people can think the USA poses less risk than Australia at the moment!!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Trembling, I totaly understand that!! what I dont understand is how people can think the USA poses less risk than Australia at the moment!!

Mate I disagree, you don't understand IMHO what moves markets. Risk capital dose not originate from Australia but from the US, Japan, EUR (large economies with low interest rates)

When that capital is moving away from risk it has to flow back to where it came. Thus the falls in our currency. It has nothing to do with your line of thinking.

 

[baby_swallow]

Trembling, I totaly understand that!! what I dont understand is how people can think the USA poses less risk than Australia at the moment!!

Unfortunately overseas fund managers look at the Aussie as a commodity based currency, and so the Australian markets. You don't have to do to many research to figure out where the Australian market is going - just look at the price of copper. (Yes!).. for me, Copper = China = BHP = Australia. There you go... my secret indicator!!! lol

 

[Mofra]

Unfortunately overseas fund managers look at the Aussie as a commodity based currency, and so the Australian markets. You don't have to do to many research to figure out where the Australian market is going - just look at the price of copper. (Yes!).. for me, Copper = China = BHP = Australia. There you go... my secret indicator!!! lol

Our two biggest export markets are iron ore & coal, if you're looking for leading indicators. May be a little harder though to watch the bulk goodies that don't have transparent LME prices to follow.

 

[Bushman]

Unfortunately overseas fund managers look at the Aussie as a commodity based currency, and so the Australian markets. You don't have to do to many research to figure out where the Australian market is going - just look at the price of copper. (Yes!).. for me, Copper = China = BHP = Australia. There you go... my secret indicator!!! lol

Yep spot on - it is the good old carry trade unwinding. Borrow in low interest rate markets, invest in high yielding currencies like the Aussie dollar or risk assets like commodities. When you are worried about GDP, unwind the carry trade and flee to safety.

I agree that copper is the canary on the coal mine for global GDP.

Same happened around the time of Lehman Brothers. In the 12-months before that it was all 'AUD parity with USD'.

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

OK I'll bite, why SELL everything rather than

a) short or

b) hedge

I mean I remember a number of people on these very boards about a year ago saying something along the lines of "I've just missed out on the best shorting market for 20 years because I didn't have the balls." Why does a "professional" commentator saying SELL rather than SHORT?


Cheers
Sir O

 

[baby_swallow]

OK I'll bite, why SELL everything rather than

a) short or

b) hedge

I mean I remember a number of people on these very boards about a year ago saying something along the lines of "I've just missed out on the best shorting market for 20 years because I didn't have the balls." Why does a "professional" commentator saying SELL rather than SHORT?


Cheers
Sir O

He just wanted his clients to stay in cash rather than having short positions to play it "safe".
Two scenarios:
a) If they are short and market reverses - they're stuffed.
b) If they are in cash and the market tanked - then some good buying opportunities.

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

He just wanted his clients to stay in cash rather than having short positions to play it "safe".
Two scenarios:
a) If they are short and market reverses - they're stuffed.
b) If they are in cash and the market tanked - then some good buying opportunities.

So to paraphase his comments can be boiled down to - I think that this market is going down but I'm not really really sure. So don't position yourself to make money from this and don't hedge against the risk I see. Rather you should sell everything and convert it all to cash and gold.


Cluck cluck chicken little.

Cheers

Sir O

 

[Aussiejeff]

BUY EVERYTHING!!! says ASX watcher...



[size=-4]Well, SOMEONE has been...since 11.15am[/size]

Hey, sir Osi's post was about then too.... hmmm????

 

[Bushman]

BUY EVERYTHING!!! says ASX watcher...



[size=-4]Well, SOMEONE has been...since 11.15am[/size]

Hey, sir Osi's post was about then too.... hmmm????

I've just gone 100% tinned foods. Best asset class I know.

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

BUY EVERYTHING!!! says ASX watcher...



[size=-4]Well, SOMEONE has been...since 11.15am[/size]

Hey, sir Osi's post was about then too.... hmmm????

I didn't do it.

Cheers

Sir O

 

[skyQuake]

I didn't do it.

Cheers

Sir O

Also about the time gold popped down $10

 

[Bill M]

I have heard there are a couple of globally respected traders / investors / theorists / economists who have said things along similar lines, perhaps not as extreme but proposing that the March 09 low will be broken. Does anyone have any other links to youtube / articles etc.

Here's one for ya. This so called expert reckons the DOW will crash to

3400

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEsAjYXlLuI

 

[Moneybags]

The world is stuffed.

I was out a few months ago, and the continued bailout program confirms my view.

Around Dec 08 I was expecting the government support to be short and sharp to save complete disaster but it's gone beyond that now in my opinion.

A perfect storm is brewing.

Kennas.......for once I agree with you.......I have exited the market of all my positions over the last few weeks and will be concentrating on saving for the next little while.

MB

 

[wayneL]

Here's one for ya. This so called expert reckons the DOW will crash to

3400

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEsAjYXlLuI

Hmmm... This is the man who in 2006 predicted the Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade.

BUY BUY BUY

 

[explod]

Here's one for ya. This so called expert reckons the DOW will crash to

3400

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEsAjYXlLuI

Some ASF's stated this two years ago, without exact time frame, but inferring back then the next year or two. Its all just a matter of thinking about the values of money and doing a bit of a sum or two in the head.

If you look at the Dow chart back to 1997 you will see that the main support is at around 7000 Now the rise from this level was on the provision of cheap money (lower interest rates) So the rise is backed by a lot of borrowing from there. We now in the US have virtually zero rates yet still the market looks iffy to say the least. The crash of 08 went in 09 below that support area for a short time. However a soloid fall through the support sees the next convincing support area at around 4000, the next at 3500 and the bottom support at 2000

Now some of the household names in banking have done it to worthless, why not the Dow. I think it will.

 

[noirua]

I wounder if this thread will be as prophetic as the "buy with open arms" thread??

Well, it's more a case of propitious thinking than of a prophetical nature of propheCy, and at least it was propheSy. Whether shares became proprietorial was for your own indications to make and mine, more as an action of a propounder.

 

[nunthewiser]

Well, it's more a case of propitious thinking than of a prophetical nature of propheCy, and at least it was propheSy. Whether shares became proprietorial was for your own indications to make and mine, more as an action of a propounder.

Ah ha

sounds Propopostrus to me

 

[Smurf1976]

I have heard there are a couple of globally respected traders / investors / theorists / economists who have said things along similar lines, perhaps not as extreme but proposing that the March 09 low will be broken. Does anyone have any other links to youtube / articles etc.

Having read the comments of many well educated people on the subject, it has long been my understanding that the US entered a secular bear market in 2000 and that the various sharp rallies and corrections since are simply part of that. Such secular bears tend to last 1 - 2 decades and ultimately result in markets returning to low valuation levels.

 

[Smurf1976]

Trembling, I totaly understand that!! what I dont understand is how people can think the USA poses less risk than Australia at the moment!!

It has its' troubles certainly, but the US Dollar is still the world's senior currency whereas the AUD is virtually irrelevant to most of the world.