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SEA - Sundance Energy Australia

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I'm a big fan of their strategy to secure low cost acres then shore them up then onsell them, keeping a slice of equity for the company and sometimes a royalty, kind of like the Cape Lambert of the Eagle Ford Shale . According to my calculations (somewhat conservative) SEA is currently worth about 50 cents per share, which is similar to the result that Euroz (48 cents, but it's pre-twister sale) got in their report a while back (having dug it up after I calculated mine, it gave me confidence to buy in this morning expecting a small dip before rising, but instead it just skipped to the rising part ). I'm hoping it'll be onwards and upwards from here on!

 
The recent broker report from 3 weeks ago and it's 48c target is already woefully out of date.

Firstly it uses 30-June balances for its balance sheet valuation. As we know, there has been material changes since.

Secondly, and most importantly, the 48c valuation is based on a forecast 305kbbls attributable production for 2012.

Now as we know SEA have recently forecast 900boepd a day from Dec 2010. 905x365=328k. So the announcement on Friday has in effect pulled forward production by at least one year in relation to the 48c target, and this does not included upgraded production by 2011.

I believe that this is the reason for much of the recent buying, and would expect to see a revised broker report next month giving a price target between 60c and 70c.
 
UBIQ, while i like SSN, this thing is that far ahead of it in terms of dev and derisking its not funny. Bout time you saw the lights.
 
condog said:
UBIQ, while i like SSN, this thing is that far ahead of it in terms of dev and derisking its not funny. Bout time you saw the lights.
Click to expand...

CD, Peddling your wares again?

Relax. The big rerating is happening. No need to oversell!
 
Yep, at risk of turning this thread into the American O&G speccie conference, condog has a fair point in that SEA is more advanced than SSN in terms of proving up the acreage. On the other hand, I do like SSN's cash position. Nevertheless from what I gather, both have high class, level headed directors that are pulling all the right strings at the moment. Both companies are going to be big in 2011, and thus, it makes sense to have a stake in both. We will see the rise and rise of SEA, and the establishment of another O&G play in SSN.

I do have a question with regards to SEA. I know earlier in the year they had a SPP to raise capital when the share price was a third of what it is now. Does anyone see the need for short term capital given that the company is going to try and ramp up proceedings in the next 6 months?

Cheers.
 

Onshore oil is HOT in the US. BP has helped matters!

I do like both SSN and SEA for different reasons but as you've alluded to guys, were really splitting hairs here. You last question is why I hold SSN as well as SEA. I think SEA will be farming out to raise cash as needed but once they get ahead on the cashflow next year, they'll be self funding.
 

Yep thats what they do, they are experts at it , and they have so far pulled of wonderful deals with world class operators.

This is also why they have sooooo much acerage for a small cap.Because they full intend to offload some of it for many multiples over what they paid, retain some royalties and retain some interest.

5haretrader - im guessing SPP and CR's will be dependent on what deal making they do. In this game there is always a large need for capital, especially in the small caps. They way i judge it is can they turn that capital requirement into multiples and accellerate growth, like AUT did, like SEA so far are doing. If so, imo dont worry about it.
 
condog said:
...they turn that capital requirement into multiples and accellerate growth, like AUT did, like SEA so far are doing. If so, imo dont worry about it.
Click to expand...

Funny you should say that. I've learnt from my encounter with AUT's SPP that one shouldn't turn a blind eye to these opportunities for cheap shares if the company is going places. I think all too often we as investors look at cap raisings in a negative manner because it brings on dilution. Sure, if your company is an absolute dog you could be excused for not taking a part in a SPP, but for these up and comeing O&G plays, a SPP can be fantastic for shareholders to top up on their holding.
 

Yep in most repeated CR, should be a warning sign imo.

But when you find a company with a well laid out extremely economic growth plan, with the assets in place, the personal and the technology, then CR's can be a god send in a limited amount if they eimmediately utilize the capital to accelerate growth. AUT probably went too early imo, but its all irrelevant now.
 
And they've just announced a further project acquisition. What I like about this is that the expensive 3d seismic has already been done.

It's obvious what they have done here. They've flipped part of Twister at a very good price, and gone and acquired more acreage at a bargain basement price.

Thumbs up to SEA management.

Sundance Launches New Prospect in Kansas

Sundance’s Board of Directors is pleased to announce the initiation of a new oil and gas
development project located in the state of Kansas in the United States of America. This new play
is called the Pawnee Prospect. The Company’s wholly owned US subsidiary, Sundance Energy,
Inc., joined its long time joint venture partner, McElvain Oil & Gas Limited Partnership, in the
play by acquiring 25% of McElvain’s interests, or approximately 4000 net acres to Sundance.
The play will focus on developing conventional targets as well
as an unconventional shale target which the Company believes to
be very prospective. 3D seismic has been shot across a small
percentage of the acreage and has high graded several drillable
prospects. Access to the unconventional shale will require the
application of horizontal drilling technology and suits the
Company’s focus on resource plays while giving it excellent
exposure to very economic conventional reserves as well.
“We are very excited about opening up this new, very prospective play which we believe fits our
business model perfectly.” said Managing Director Jayme McCoy.
 
Not according to my last calculations - the cap raising detailed the spend of all capital raised and it basically covered exploration and the SEA contribution to development costs in all of their existing plays. My entry to SEA was a small purchase to gain access to the cap raising so that would date the calculations to then (at work so don't have the figures handy).

I don't believe it covers the new development announced this morning however at 900BOE PD from December this is almost 3 times the June Qtr production which was cashflow positive on an operational basis (cap rasing coverering development costs).

I was surprised by the jump yesterday but the last time I was as confident after crunching numbers on a stock was MGX at 16c
 
It might not be clear to the naked eye, but SEA is holding up very well. You will notice a swelling of buyers around 35cents. This coinciding with a bounce off 35.5cents indicates to me that we have a new key support level at 35. Good!!

I think in the comeing months the market will really open their eyes up to these shale oil companies in America. Take for example the rerating with AUT at the moment. SSN has the same common denominator when it comes to the company's bottom line. Promising acreages, solid management, generous financial positioning. Seems like a bit of a no brainer to me.
 

SEA will inevitably open the markets eyes via unavoidable performance if it continues in early 2011 the way its finished 2010.
 
DOWJones Average was up over the weekend and a nice pre-open depth for the holders...
 

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Looks like the consolidation/pullback was healthy. Now at ATHs on the back of the roadshow presentation released yesterday.

Targeted Market cap of $300-500m in 3-5 years
They're at $90m now.

I was looking at the 900bopd ST goal (Dec 10) and they're talking 4,250 bopd within FY 10/11 as well. Certainly not backwards in coming forwards.
 
Very promising start to Friday.....

34 buyers for 1,917,779 units 28 sellers for 729,896 units

x2.5 times the sellers.
 
BrightGreenGlow said:
Very promising start to Friday.....

34 buyers for 1,917,779 units 28 sellers for 729,896 units

x2.5 times the sellers.
Click to expand...

Yes rather glad , I looked at the MD late as-well, I was about to take my wins and run, will hold for whatever may come tomorrow.
 
Aegis put out a valuation of 65c on SEA last week. Ive got it valued at about 58c, either way it seems cheap. Its peer comparison in the Roadshow presentation makes it very cheap with $8.39 2p which, considering the quality of its acerages and its results so far seems good value, especially to its peers.
 

Sundance investors- many of you do not know this but a well known financial publication in the USA recommended and continues to recommend SEA with a strong buy rating! visit the site saadvisory and review the email alerts for July 1, 2010 and Sept 7th 2010 for very bullish comments about this extraordinary opportunity to make a huge amount of money from SEA .
This letter has also recommended SSN and ETE that trade in the US as well!
This letter remains very bullish toward USA domestic oils ~ Bakken and Niobrara and Eagleford!
The letter picks have done outstanding! review the portfolio
bexp, axas, ssn, sdcjf.pk, sd, wres, gmxr, kog, dej, cmt.to, uen.l and qep
 
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