SEA - Sundance Energy Australia

[condog]

DJIA and oil up really strongly which will help SEA come monday. Dollar up strongly almost 96c which is not perfect, but still it will decline eventually.

 

[condog]

OMG is no one watching this stock. If not what the hell are you watching and why the hell are you not watchig this like a hawk.

 

[luap77]

I've been watching like a hawk from about 7c. Hold a fair few and will be looking to buy more. I'm also very surprised at the lack of interest/excitment with SEA, given what has been announced this calender year. Sleeping beauty may be awakening in a gradual manner, but nonetheless awakening IMO. Good time to hold IMO. Well worth some research if you aren't in this stock!

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

OMG is no one watching this stock. If not what the hell are you watching and why the hell are you not watchig this like a hawk.

I watched it but bought SSN instead due to a vastly superior cash position and 100% interests in the Niobrara as opposed to the relatively small percentage interests that SEA has.

Well you did ask!!

 

[condog]

I watched it but bought SSN instead due to a vastly superior cash position and 100% interests in the Niobrara as opposed to the relatively small percentage interests that SEA has.

Well you did ask!!

Relative small interest ?????

Yes relative across a huge acerage and huge number of current drill programs. They had 5 net wells drilled in August. Thats far higher interest in both acerage and active wells then SSN has. Thiere higher net interest wells are just kicking off now.

Dont get me wrong SSN has huge potential, but it would be absolutely impossible to come up with any analogy that showed it has a higher net interest imo.

 

[Mofra]

The 900 BOE equivalent target for December being on track is a very positive result IMO, considering on an Operating cost basis they are cashflow positive as per the previous quarter's results at 381 BOE.
Given the proportion of fixed overheads reduces with increased capacity the upside seems significant IMO, especially when the ~US$12 per barrel production costs are factored in once the mutli-stage fraccing gets above 24 stages.

 

[condog]

I could be totally wrong but after watching the re-rating of AUT this week, imo this ones likely to pop soon with a re rating to 4 something, possibly 50 something cents in the next few weeks.

imo it first has to clear the traders out taking thier small profits.

I could be 100% wrong so do your own research and seek advice to your specific circumstances.

 

[5haretrader]

Condog, what a surprise to sea (ahem) you over here on this thread . Anyways if you are after a bit of a discussion I thought I would try and start something off here. I know a fair bit about SSN, but my knowledge in SEA is lacking.

From where I see it, SEA has the potential to draw a similar growth pattern to AUT but I don't have the experience in crunching numbers to get a potential target for say 6-12 months time.

Could you perhaps take 5 minutes of your time out to perhaps paraphrase why you like this company so much, over, say, SSN, GGE or BCC (all are American oilers in different stages of development)? I would appreciate it greatly. Thanks!!

 

[condog]

Condog, what a surprise to sea (ahem) you over here on this thread . Anyways if you are after a bit of a discussion I thought I would try and start something off here. I know a fair bit about SSN, but my knowledge in SEA is lacking.

From where I see it, SEA has the potential to draw a similar growth pattern to AUT but I don't have the experience in crunching numbers to get a potential target for say 6-12 months time.

Could you perhaps take 5 minutes of your time out to perhaps paraphrase why you like this company so much, over, say, SSN, GGE or BCC (all are American oilers in different stages of development)? I would appreciate it greatly. Thanks!!

Hi 5haretrader, ive been in and out of this since 11c.

SEA imo has massive growth potential, firstly because of htier small mcap. In relation to that mcap they have rapidly growing boepd and a brilliant business model of persuing early phase acerage, doing deals to recoup significant multiples on thier acerage costs and retaining royalties, acerage and interest with world class operators in world class acerage positions.

They have ammassed a massive portfolio of acerage, a massive portfolio of well interests and a massive portfolio of royalties, relative to thier mcap.

The growth opportunities now with all of the above are simply staggering for this company. thier latest sale is proof of the quality of managment.

The Company secured an Independent Reserve report
from Netherland Sewell that verified the strong growth
during the financial year in Sundance’s base of hydrocarbon
reserves. The highlights of that report were as follows:
• Based upon Nymex strip oil and gas prices, this report
confirmed Total Reserves of 8,174,000 boe including
Proven Reserves (1P) of 5,074,000 boe and Probable
Reserves (2P) of 3,100,000 boe.
• Established a Total PV10 (pre tax future net cash flows
discounted at 10%) for Sundance of US$99.1 million
(AU$116.6 million) including Proven PV10 of US$68.0
million (AU$80.0 million).
• The report covered less than 5% of the Company’s
total acreage which excludes 26% of its Williston Basin
acreage and all of its DJ Basin Niobrara Shale, Arriba
and New Albany Shale prospects.

Sundance participating in up to
50 wells in calendar 2010, 40 in its Williston Basin Bakken
prospects and 10 across its DJ Basin prospects.

One very very switched on mamagement imo with a sound and well funded growth plan.

Through the alliance with Beach, theres also a very real chance Beach may TO SEA imo.

As is set forth in the table below, at 30 June 2010, the
Company owned approximately 114,238 net US acres
in primarily high ownership interest plays located in
some of the most prospective oil and gas shale basins
in the country.

An increase of 40% over 2009 acerage.

Definitely DYOR as this is all amatuer opinion. I am just a mug punter like you, and can and do get it wrong. Lots of external forces at play, ie oil price etc and risk asociated with the game of oil.

From what i can project they will have a cash profit prior to spending on exploration and development of around $10-$14m by end of 2010 or early 2011. Relate that back to mcap of ,$80M and you can see why im excited. Especially given its rapid growth and in all lieklihood continual rapid growth if all other factors remain equal.

 

[5haretrader]

Thanks mate, your posts are always top quality. Helps a lot. Cheers.

This one might pull back to low 30s, and if it does I'll be all over it.

 

[prgudula]

Thanks mate, your posts are always top quality. Helps a lot. Cheers.

This one might pull back to low 30s, and if it does I'll be all over it.

thanks guys this is showing more confidence to enter SEA and take a ride like AUT done for us.

I am looking into enter between 30s to 32s if possible.

here is the analysis from stoxline

 

[GaryS]

Condog

When you stated
"Through the alliance with Beach, theres also a very real chance Beach may TO SEA imo."

I checked who was on the SEA board. This was interesting
Reginald George Nelson (Non Executive Director)

Reg Nelson has been CEO or Managing Director of Beach Petroleum since 1995, and has a career spanning nearly four decades as an exploration geophysicist in the minerals and petroleum industries. His industry credentials include former Chairman of peak industry organizations, the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA), where he remains a member of the Council. Reg is an Australian Citizen.

 

[5haretrader]

Well I bit the bullet and made my purchase this morning. When I saw that market depth swing so dramatically, I knew my time to buy was today. I must say I'm very happy to become a new SEA shareholder. Had to pay a little premium to what I wanted to pay, (36cents), but it has broken resistance at 35cents and I can see 40cents quite easily here.

 

[condog]

you got to love owning a stock that others find difficult to buy. can see those sellers showing some arrogance too, which is frustrating the buyers as they stack up for thier next onslaught. Be nice if its today.

 

[5haretrader]

Agreed condog. This is a bread and butter breakout of a key resistance level. Checkout the volume today! The fact that SEA has broken out with strong volume bodes very well for the next few days. Look for 35cents to become a strong support level and 40cents to be the next pyschological round number hurdle for the buyers to break through. What was I thinking putting my bid in at 30cents this morning, that price is long gone.

 

[ParleVouFrancois]

5haretrader so one of those buys this morning was you too! I bought at the open, went back to bed (was awake most of the night researching the switch of shares between AUT and SEA which I decided was a good idea) woke up again, and already up 10% on SEA. Very very lucky trading, AUT is even for today. So I'm in a good mood .

I'm liking how SEA's management are very active, they seem to have lots of value creating deals going on at once, with hopefully more on the way. I liked the major derisking of the Twister project, 8 million is about 10% of the MC (well it was this morning lolol) on top of some of the cash they already had, enables them to fund even more exploration. The future looks good as long as management doesn't lose their mojo.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

5haretrader so one of those buys this morning was you too! I bought at the open, went back to bed (was awake most of the night researching the switch of shares between AUT and SEA which I decided was a good idea) woke up again, and already up 10% on SEA. Very very lucky trading, AUT is even for today. So I'm in a good mood .

I'm liking how SEA's management are very active, they seem to have lots of value creating deals going on at once, with hopefully more on the way. I liked the major derisking of the Twister project, 8 million is about 10% of the MC (well it was this morning lolol) on top of some of the cash they already had, enables them to fund even more exploration. The future looks good as long as management doesn't lose their mojo.

Yes I was in on open aswell. Its nice to hold a stock with a tight registry which moves on volume but is not as the mercy of daytraders. The chart is looking very good. It's very hard to tell SSN and SEA apart, and on that basis there is another 30% to go for SEA to match SSN's price. Or vice versa

 

[AngusSmart]

I'm in also this morning.. i decided that ssn was too risky and not operated good enough at the moment. untill someone decent comes on board to drill and frac for them i will sit out otherwise they will be a cracker once they get someone onboard..

Good luck to all the holders of SEA!! cant wait to ride this one out for a year or so!

 

[5haretrader]

Here's a few charts. The first one is a comparison of SEA to SSN in terms of price movement. The second one is a look at the chart of SEA. It looks pretty bullish I must admit.

 

[condog]

Well done to all on this recent rally, ive exited part of my position, not becasue i want to , but becasue i had to. shhhh its my CGT bill money.