SEA - Sundance Energy Australia

[condog]

Apparantly Euroz Securities have upgraded SEA toa buy with a 20c target...i cannot confirm the accuracey of this , its from HC on 12feb 2010

But i can say on my calcs thats probably a conservative target.....

Definitely DYOR and seek advice this is a small oiler & is high risk IMO, but likely high reward if things continue as they have been lately...

 

[condog]

Hi guys a few weeks ago i said this was under value based on my calcs and IMO it still is....however its up 30% from then (at 10c) be aware of possible??? retracement prior to possibly going higher???

Since then Euroz have its target at 20c, my 12 month target is higher then euroz but my immediate target is a bit lower..... just be aware its 30% higher in a couple of weeks, rightly so, but can it sustain it in such a short period of time?

 

[tunrida]

DMOR condog and I like:
options held by MacQ bank with ex price of 38c+
small no shares total - 172m, and book value of 24c
quick ratio of 7+
nice buyer depth - but think those back at 10-11c are optimists

 

[condog]

Agreed tunrida

Also todays announcment on increase production amounts to an extra half million net revenue per annum approx on a $25m mcap stock....at PE of 10 adds another almost 3c per share to valuation on my calcs...

 

[condog]

Any esperienced chartist got one happeining on this with an opinion...ta.

Hit 15.5c up almost 50% in two weeks...

 

[Sean K]

On the 3 yr, clear bottom at 5c ish and a couple of higher highs before some nice consolidation. 10c formed up as very good support and springboard for further gains. Major resistance around 17c ish.

1 yr, you'd expect significant resistance around 17c (of course) and hopefully consolidation above 12-13 ish to use as support to break through. Good volume increase supporting the recent break up.

 

[condog]

Thanks Kennas

Its having no probs consistentanlty hitting 15.5 and 16c today.

From a funnymentals (for a speccy) all looks good for the 20c as in analysts reports quoted earlier.

With its doubling announcment this week added 3c + its no surpirses.

 

[condog]

Kennas you where spot on with its resistance, no let see how you go with the support and breakout.

 

[Sean K]

Kennas you where spot on with its resistance, no let see how you go with the support and breakout.

Still some water to flow under the bridge, condog. Could steady around the 17 zone for a bit before a retrace and bounce off the support area, but the 17 area will still be hard. Not sure what fundamentals will push it through. While it stays over 12 cents looks bullish, but a break down sends caution. Through 17c on volume and there's a good probability of 28-30c ish next major resistance on the way back up. .

 

[condog]

Hit 19c today kennas , up 90% in a month. Nice little profit, but bummed i only had a relatively small parcel.

Im now out and looking for reentry, might not get it. But profit in pocket is always safe.

 

[Mofra]

Interesting stock for those that take a longer term view. ~27k BOE produced Q4 09, reads nicely inconjunction with 17/02 ann of Chase Well increasing production from 33 to 70 BOpd.

Slow steady production increases could fundamentally underpin prices during further drilling - don't hold but on the watchlist.

Cashflow position based on 29/01 anns seem to be fairly favourable as well for a junior explorer.

 

[xinyu09]

SEA Sp rise and BEACH SP down, hmm is there a relationship? Oh well, I guess there isn't Anyway, Good luck to shareholders!

 

[condog]

SEA Sp rise and BEACH SP down, hmm is there a relationship? Oh well, I guess there isn't Anyway, Good luck to shareholders!

The beach deal is only one very small part of the business.

Todays investor presentation is a great snapshot for those interested. 50 more wells in 2010 to be drilled. Some high %, some low % interest. But all in very high class paddocks.

 

[Synergy]

Great presentation today. I'm not here for the fundamentals but i'm more than happy to read things like that. Still holding its trend very nicely with interest starting to build it seems. I'm happy for it to continue tracking the way it is, but if it wants to break out to the high side I'm not going to be too disapointed either.

 

[Mofra]

Doji reversal on candles with trend broken, will be interesting to see if the 15c support level holds. If so it could represent an entry point.

 

[wanlad1]

Audio Broad cast for SEA

SEA looks ready for a bounce this audio posted today, check through recent anns and will find an updated presentation

http://www.brr.com.au/event/64467

 

[condog]

All i will say is DYOR and spend some spare time researching SEA before it hist a higher price.ITs all up to you and your broker, adviser, but SEA is well worth consdering.

They have 50 wells in 2010, ranging from 1.5% interst to 81.25% interest?

They have cash flow 5 times some of there peers who have less upside and 5 times the market cap, eg: AZZ.

Do your self a favour and do some research on them. Im not advoacating you buy, but i am suggesting you check them out.

another huge benefit unlike many of thier peers they have 93% oil and less then 7% gas. Gas prices are falling, oil seems to be rising.

disc - i hold, will trade and hope to profit. so DYOR and be responsible.

 

[Tommo_Aus]

Condog, I take it you re-entered? I'm currently tied up with the likes of OBJ and SSN... still holding onto GGP and VIL at the same time, what can you see SEA has in the near future that SSN doesn't have in the coming weeks?

 

[condog]

Condog, I take it you re-entered? I'm currently tied up with the likes of OBJ and SSN... still holding onto GGP and VIL at the same time, what can you see SEA has in the near future that SSN doesn't have in the coming weeks?

yep back in.

SSN has good immediate upside once its price consolidates, it was a bit overbought and is currently correcting to go again. SEa has better mid to long term prospects and better cash flow.

SSN, march prospects may change that if it gets good cash flow from Gene 1-22H in the Bakken about to be fracced. They should hopfully get 3000BOPD gross from that, i think they have about a 30% NRI from memory. So if they get that then SSN will then have brilliant cash flow for further activities.

SSN seems solid to me but i just haven had the time to check it close enough for a buy. Certainly some speculative trade action. Might be worth a trade or two once the price corrects a bit. To my knoweldegt that frac has not started and would take about 30+ days so its likely to be late April before the big action on SSN imo.

 

[Mofra]

Placement for holders as at 29 March at 13.5c per share, to raise $8.7m. Just flicking through the investor presentation now. Given this was on the radar, taking a small stake & legging in the rest via placement seems a reasonably easy way to obtain cheap entry for the current non-holders.