SEA - Sundance Energy Australia

[mr. jeff]

Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?

I'll put my money on 62c as a wild prediction.
but seriously my time machine is broken and anything could happen.

 

[Magic Man]

Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?

IMO if you currently have a gain on your capital for the year you could always sell and hope it drops and get back in, that way saying your tax. If not maybe hold and ride it out.. Obviously think for yourself however the above could be a strategy to employ.

I would imagine the stock will rise again just hard to with such a taxing government we have at the moment... watch out for the oil tax...... lol

 

[RaymondJ]

Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?

There was an absolut horror show in commodities last night but Im thinking it wont go much lower than this but thats my opinion only and Im holding a significant amount of this stock. The company is drilling alot of wells this year and is on track. Euroz has put fair value of $1.30 on this stock currently. The medium term outlook for oil is good there will be a big demand for it in the mid to later part of this year as countries around the world have been drawing down their stocks of crude, so pretty soon a lot of them will have to restock their reserves
The market depth for SEA is lining up ok right now as at 1256pm est

Just my opinion and what Ive researched

bye now

 

[skc]

IMO if you currently have a gain on your capital for the year you could always sell and hope it drops and get back in, that way saying your tax. If not maybe hold and ride it out.. Obviously think for yourself however the above could be a strategy to employ.

I would imagine the stock will rise again just hard to with such a taxing government we have at the moment... watch out for the oil tax...... lol

I think that kind of wash sale is frowned upon by the ATO...

 

[howmanyru]

Thanks for the advice guys, I will continue to hold above 60c.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

I think that kind of wash sale is frowned upon by the ATO...

... mmm I don't see why it would be, you can sell whatever part of a share parcel you want, as far as I'm aware... or are you being sarcastic?

 

[skc]

... mmm I don't see why it would be, you can sell whatever part of a share parcel you want, as far as I'm aware... or are you being sarcastic?

See this thread...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9866&page=1

 

[RaymondJ]

Heres a quick summary of the Production announcement for Willitston Basin
Please let me know if you see any errors-gently
boe p/d = 1603
boe p/w = 11221
boe p/m = 44884
boe p/y = 538608

lets say at $80 p/b = $43088640 p/annum
This is purely a extrapolation of the production rate p/d and doesnt account for decline.
Its based on SEA's percentage of each well in the production output.
Can someone tell me how this compares with the last production updatre I havent got time

cheers RJ

 

[RaymondJ]

Update
Im having trouble accessing the Announcement now I dont know what chokes are applied if any.
From what I can see it looks pretty good. more wells online.

What does everyone else think of the Production update

p.s. the bots are back at it one bot is trying to sell it down and the other is selling it up. Crazy stuff

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Cheers skc.. they are dirty the ATO.. seems like you could have a millions reasons to sell but back to SEA....

Mandaree well, had a big decline over the 7 days.. its 30 day average will be something to look at. However the rest were good Not much movement in share price though.. maybe we are all waiting on the duel listing in the US???

 

[RaymondJ]

Cheers skc.. they are dirty the ATO.. seems like you could have a millions reasons to sell but back to SEA....

Mandaree well, had a big decline over the 7 days.. its 30 day average will be something to look at. However the rest were good Not much movement in share price though.. maybe we are all waiting on the duel listing in the US???

What will that mean to the share price Im not sure how this is going to work, your thoughts would be much appreciated. Im no fan of the ATO either theyve hounded me for years and they can be brutal.
RJ

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Well im not very sure Ray.. I wouldn't mind hearing from the Dog himself here but seems like that well had massive declines so thats obviously not good but the rest seems to be inline with previous declines. I think people are a bit unsure as to what the double listing will do to SEA.. so anything unconfirmed is bad I guess or however maybe an excellent buying opportunity..

Also, you can't tell me a $1+ stock can nearly come down 40% on no other news than that the directors needed some cash so sold out a bit, every other bit of news is either inline with projections or has reaffirmed their strong cash position. :S Really weird.. and i'm tired of seeing these sub -100 unit trades going through.. either way I'm holding and may buy in again after May.

 

[RaymondJ]

Well im not very sure Ray.. I wouldn't mind hearing from the Dog himself here but seems like that well had massive declines so thats obviously not good but the rest seems to be inline with previous declines. I think people are a bit unsure as to what the double listing will do to SEA.. so anything unconfirmed is bad I guess or however maybe an excellent buying opportunity..

Also, you can't tell me a $1+ stock can nearly come down 40% on no other news than that the directors needed some cash so sold out a bit, every other bit of news is either inline with projections or has reaffirmed their strong cash position. :S Really weird.. and i'm tired of seeing these sub -100 unit trades going through.. either way I'm holding and may buy in again after May.

I wrote to the coy last week and asked them if they are involved in the mass selling by automation that has been going on. As yet Ive not received a reply. I really have no idea how this dual listing will go. I can only wonder will it be the same company and will they list a whole new placement of shares. I too am sick of all this auto trading someone is either selling millions and someone may be taking a big position, I dont know.

p.s I just received a reply:Thank you for your inquiry via our web site. Sundance does not currently buy or sell any of it's shares on the market.
I sent them another email asking about the dual listing. I will keep you posted
cheers RJ

 

[RaymondJ]

DUAL LISTED COMPANIES
Have a look on Wikipedia (Dual listed public companies)
Very interesting BHP is dual listed. There seems to be more advantages than a merger or aquisition especially when it comes to tax meybee they want to avoid the carbon tax and super profits tax that Australia is trying to implement.

RJ

 

[Assasin]

Guys, more info on dual listings could be obtained from the AUT announcements and threads over the past 4 months. The jury is still out on whether or not that assisted the stock.
Have been out of SEA for a while, but my 2 cents are that they are a great target for a take-over at the moment which we havn't seen or heard of in the small cap oilers for a while.
Good luck to holders.

 

[RaymondJ]

Guys, more info on dual listings could be obtained from the AUT announcements and threads over the past 4 months. The jury is still out on whether or not that assisted the stock.
Have been out of SEA for a while, but my 2 cents are that they are a great target for a take-over at the moment which we havn't seen or heard of in the small cap oilers for a while.
Good luck to holders.

Thanks Assasin for that I will have a look. From what Ive read and its not much at the moment but it seems that dual listing is far more tax advantageous than a merger or a takeover. But a takeover might explain a lot about the way its been trading lateley
TKS RJ

 

[RaymondJ]

Here is a bit of info I gleaned from the AUT Blog my thanks to CONDOG and philly for there information. RE DUAL LISTING

Re: AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
Originally Posted by philly
Hi Condog, thanks again.
I'm a bit troubled now .
What is stopping the bigger players who have transaction accounts on both the ASX and TSX and the TSX listing promotor from raiding the ASX and moving a substantial quantity of AUT shares off shore to the TSX?

You see, before you told me about this cross market trading, I saw the listing on the TSX as a good thing because it gives AUT greater exposure and greater access to funds. However now I'm wondering whether AUT is vulnerable to a T/O led by the Canadians? And also if the number of AUT shares on the ASX decreases substantially because the Canadians are buying up how will that impact on the price and liquidity of AUT on the ASX?
Your comments welcome. Thanks in anticipation

Condog
Every company is vulnerable to a take over every day. This really doesnt make us any more or less vulnerable imo. If you own shares you can sell them on the ASX via your broker or you can sell them off market and just submit the paperwork. They are your shares, you can sell them anywhere you want, they just have to have the regestery notiified before the new owner can also onsell to who ever they want where ever they want in what ever currency they want.

So theoretically yes there might be a raid of shares sold on the TSX. But hey for us holders thats an awesome thing as it limits the supply, but exposes the shares to two markets worth of demand.

The key thing in any dual listing is "will it create sufficient demand to warrant the extra admin costs and time commitments" So far yes. Time will tell?

Some companies its awesome, others regret it or find it useless and they delist and go back to one market.

So far the cashed up resource rich and super annuation rich Canadians have loved our little baby.

Hope this helps
RJ

 

[RaymondJ]

This reply is from Sundance Energy, my thanks to Eric for replying so promptly.

Re: Dual Listing
Close
From: Eric McCrady <emccrady@sundanceenergy.net> | Date: 16 May 2011 10:17:24
We have not announced the specific mechanism for the dual-listing. The North American listing will be investing in the same set of assets as the ASX shares currently own and, theoretically, the shares should be tradeable between exchanges. Our view is that North American markets currently value US oil shale assets more aggressively than those on the ASX which is the driver behind exploring the dual listing (AUT and SSN appear to have better valuation metrics than SEA and other ASX only peers). That doesn't necessarily mean SEA would see price appreciation but it looks like the potential may be there. We will provide more details to the market as we move forward in the process. Thanks again

Eric


My reply

Thanks for your prompt reply Eric there are many SEA stock holders interested in this dual listing. Please excuse my ignorance on this issue. A couple of questions for you:

a: How many shares will be in the initial listing and are they new shares or existing shares from the ASX listing?
b: What controls if any are there to limit cross selling when one exchange is up and one is down?
From what Ive read a dual listing is more tax efficient than a merger or a takeover.

Many thanks Eric
Awaiting your reply

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

This reply is from Sundance Energy, my thanks to Eric for replying so promptly.

Re: Dual Listing
Close
From: Eric McCrady <emccrady@sundanceenergy.net> | Date: 16 May 2011 10:17:24
We have not announced the specific mechanism for the dual-listing. The North American listing will be investing in the same set of assets as the ASX shares currently own and, theoretically, the shares should be tradeable between exchanges. Our view is that North American markets currently value US oil shale assets more aggressively than those on the ASX which is the driver behind exploring the dual listing (AUT and SSN appear to have better valuation metrics than SEA and other ASX only peers). That doesn't necessarily mean SEA would see price appreciation but it looks like the potential may be there. We will provide more details to the market as we move forward in the process. Thanks again

Eric


My reply

Thanks for your prompt reply Eric there are many SEA stock holders interested in this dual listing. Please excuse my ignorance on this issue. A couple of questions for you:

a: How many shares will be in the initial listing and are they new shares or existing shares from the ASX listing?
b: What controls if any are there to limit cross selling when one exchange is up and one is down?
From what Ive read a dual listing is more tax efficient than a merger or a takeover.

Many thanks Eric
Awaiting your reply

Thanks for sharing Ray.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thanks for sharing Ray.

Yeah tanks Ray for sharing the personal thoughts in confidence from Sundance Energy's Chief Financial Officer.