SEA - Sundance Energy Australia

[RaymondJ]

No exprert here but the Quarterly report sees production at an increase, higher prices for the oil, and more money in the bank, if it was my personal business Id be very happy.
I knew the weather was going to play a big part in the results but they kept increasing production inspite of the horrific weather over there.With improving weather, Gadaffi's dimise and this quarterly things should pick up, after all the company is out there producing and selling oil and gas and its not going to dissapear and the need for oil is still growing. AUT is down a long way as well, I think the pessemism in the world is hitting oil stocks. But hey the oil demand is increasing as the draw down of fuel in the U.S shows. Im holding on.

Cheers

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

I believe the high AUD rate is killing these kind of stocks and weighing down on most... obviously international investors will be less likely to buy ASX shares and much more likely to sell for the currency exchange.

It's hard to buy with so much negativity for really no reason. Did anyone watch that SBS or ABC doco about SEA on Sunday I heard about? If so what gives???

Im looking to buy again soon as in a few months i believe the results and sustained high oil price will result in a SP $1+

PS: Has there be a revised Euroz target??

 

[RaymondJ]

The negative sentiment is key to all this I agree. The U.S. got BINLADEN yesterday and the market went up immediately, that kind of sentiment is just beyond logic, its crazy stuff. Shows you what the market really thinks is important "Appearances".
I saw the shorts of the Docco and it was about shale oil and gas and poisening of the underground water, but the fraccing fluid they use now is not the same as the old stuff Im thinking. I didnt know it was about SEA though. SEA is holding its own today in a very down market. The media get hold of any info about economies these days and twist it to the dark side so people will tune in. I mean they twist the Australian economy into a big negative. Inflation is pretty much in check in Australia and the economy is chugging along, jobs growth is surging but if you listen to the media its all bad. My experience is negativety always has the loudest voice.

On the Bin Laden thing, the terrorists have been doing their best all this time so I dont think there will be a huge upswing in terrorism around the globe. Meybee in Afganistan for the summer but thats probably it.


I wait.

 

[RaymondJ]

What are these mass amounts of shares being sold todat 1 sale for 300,000 another for 250,000 another for 135,000 anybody got any ideas on this it is giving the SP a real flogging, is this the company selling these?

waiting

 

[AngusSmart]

Euroz put out a new target yesterday. 1.31 and a buy @ 73c

 

[RaymondJ]

Euroz put out a new target yesterday. 1.31 and a buy @ 73c

Ahh thanks for the info but there seems to be a big selloff underway at the moment and the stock price is getting a hiding. $1.31 is a good price even with 20% discount the SP should be over $1.

Tks for the info I will hold

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

I just sold a 6th of my TLS holdings on the reaffirmed dividend and nice SP today... I was about to put all of this into SEA but I dunno if I should wait for a bit of a turn around... its very tempting at the moment... I'd rather have my money in SEA rather than AUT at the moment. This is because I believe people are still worried about the directors selling. I would like to be in very soon... production/development update due soon too.

 

[RaymondJ]

I just sold a 6th of my TLS holdings on the reaffirmed dividend and nice SP today... I was about to put all of this into SEA but I dunno if I should wait for a bit of a turn around... its very tempting at the moment... I'd rather have my money in SEA rather than AUT at the moment. This is because I believe people are still worried about the directors selling. I would like to be in very soon... production/development update due soon too.

There is a Quarterly activities report out that is pretty much the same thing if you read the whole thing and its pretty good considering the bad weather and the Aus Dollar is comming down which makes it better. I think if you wait for too long the dollar might come down more and these stocks will surge, im hoping. Also the U.S. dollar is strengthening. Have you seen the Euroz valuation from AngusSmart. SEA has gone up today despite large volume being sold off so I think something is going on here!!
Anyway thats my opinion only. Glad to see someone making money on TLS.

bye now

 

[Magic Man]

There is a Quarterly activities report out that is pretty much the same thing if you read the whole thing and its pretty good considering the bad weather and the Aus Dollar is comming down which makes it better. I think if you wait for too long the dollar might come down more and these stocks will surge, im hoping. Also the U.S. dollar is strengthening. Have you seen the Euroz valuation from AngusSmart. SEA has gone up today despite large volume being sold off so I think something is going on here!!
Anyway thats my opinion only. Glad to see someone making money on TLS.

bye now

Not quiet making money capital wise but it helped me reduce my CGT tax this year ...

Can someone post the euroz update so we can read it if that's ok? Also, this is true RJ, I couldn't imagine the AUD gaining more over time with the USD. America is find someone to get their currency higher.

 

[RaymondJ]

This is from Bloomberg online dated 7 May 2011

JPMorgan Boosts 2011 Oil-Price Forecasts as Producers Not Matching Demand
By Stephen Voss - May 7, 2011 8:07 PM GMT+1000
inShare.1More
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) raised its oil- price forecasts because OPEC and other producers aren’t matching rising demand and consumers will take time to react to higher prices.

The bank boosted its 2011 Brent crude forecast to $120 a barrel from $110, and changed its estimate for West Texas Intermediate crude to $109.50 from $99. Forecasts for 2012 prices were raised to $120 and $114, respectively.

“While financial bushfires or perhaps a rapid resolution to the Libyan civil war could radically alter market dynamics, the balance of both risks and fundamentals still points to a supply-constrained world,” JPMorgan analysts led by New York- based Lawrence Eagles wrote in a report yesterday.

Oil futures posted their biggest weekly decline since December 2008 last week amid concern about the pace of the economic recovery, with London-traded Brent plunging 13 percent to $109.13.

JPMorgan forecasts supply to fall short of demand by 600,000 barrels a day during the third quarter, even with the assumption that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increases output by 1.2 million barrels a day in coming months.

The gap could narrow to 300,000 barrels a day by the fourth quarter, assuming Saudi Arabia increases production to 9.5 million barrels a day, Angola to 1.7 million and Iraq to 3 million, though “that may prove a stretch,” the bank said. Output from those three OPEC countries in March was 8.66 million, 1.56 million and 2.69 million barrels a day, respectively, it said.

Supply Gap
Consumers draw on stockpiles when production fails to match demand. Still, “with inventories already below the five-year average, any supply gap will have to be balanced by lower demand growth, rationed by higher prices,” the New York-based bank said.

Next quarter there’s a risk oil may move toward record levels near $150 set in 2008, unless there’s a surprise increase in OPEC output beyond 29.4 million barrels a day or slower economic growth, the bank said. JPMorgan forecast Brent to average $130 and WTI $116 during the July-to-September period.

While the bank lowered its estimate of world demand by 100,000 barrels a day, in part because of the earthquake-led disruptions in Japan, it raised its forecast for Chinese consumption, saying data implies China’s crude-oil inventories have been “drawn heavily” in the past six months.

“We have observed a parallel destocking activity in the copper market,” JPMorgan said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Voss in London at sev@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Guy Collins in London at guycollins@bloomberg.net
.

 

[RaymondJ]

Buyers are lining up nicley this morning. The short sellers are in though and some sellers are starting to jump in at 70c. AUT is going well today. I think there are still too many people wanting to sell - will have to wait and see.

 

[RaymondJ]

Anyone know what these stock purchases are:

02:21:18 PM 0.725 805
02:19:18 PM 0.725 805
02:17:18 PM 0.725 806
02:15:18 PM 0.725 805
02:13:18 PM 0.725 805
02:11:18 PM 0.725 633
02:10:06 PM 0.730 5,982
02:10:06 PM 0.730 4,403
02:09:49 PM 0.730 4,711
02:09:46 PM 0.730 12

This sought of thing has been going on all day and pulling the stock price down. It happened all yesterday as well. It looks like some one or group is attempting to short the market and suppress this stock price.

 

[Country Lad]

Sales using automated trading.

It looks like some one or group is attempting to short the market and suppress this stock price.

Most likely it is actually the opposite where there is a large parcel to be sold and rather than put it up in one go, they are doing it in small licks which is less likely to drop the price. They are all coming from the sell side. The giveaway is the timing sequence.

Cheers
Country Lad

Time Price Volume B/S
15:21:19 0.725 17 S
15:21:19 0.725 2 S
15:21:18 0.725 1,388 S
15:19:19 0.725 155 S
15:19:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:17:19 0.725 5 S
15:17:19 0.725 151 S
15:17:18 0.725 1,208 S
15:15:19 0.725 100 S
15:15:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:13:19 0.725 139 S
15:13:19 0.725 1 S
15:13:18 0.725 1,086 S
15:09:19 0.725 1 S
15:09:19 0.725 157 S
15:09:18 0.725 1,208 S
15:07:19 0.725 6 S
15:07:19 0.725 151 S
15:07:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:05:19 0.725 109 S
15:05:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:03:19 0.725 17 S
15:03:19 0.725 88 S
15:03:18 0.725 1,186 S
15:01:19 0.725 131 S
15:01:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:59:19 0.725 7 S
14:59:19 0.725 124 S
14:59:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:57:19 0.725 57 S
14:57:19 0.725 74 S
14:57:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:55:19 0.725 4 S
14:55:19 0.725 2 S
14:55:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:53:18 0.725 1,006 S
14:51:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:45:19 0.725 119 S
14:45:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:43:19 0.725 131 S
14:43:18 0.725 1,006 S
14:41:19 0.725 8 S
14:41:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:39:19 0.725 161 S
14:39:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:37:19 0.725 15 S
14:37:18 0.725 223 S
14:35:19 0.725 71 S
14:35:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:33:19 0.725 10 S
14:33:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:31:19 0.725 65 S
14:31:18 0.725 1,006 S
14:29:19 0.725 133 S
14:29:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:27:19 0.725 133 S
14:27:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:25:19 0.725 50 S
14:25:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:23:18 0.725 881 S
14:21:18 0.725 805 S
14:19:18 0.725 805 S
14:17:18 0.725 806 S
14:15:18 0.725 805 S
14:13:18 0.725 805 S
14:11:18 0.725 633 S

 

[RaymondJ]

Sales using automated trading.



Most likely it is actually the opposite where there is a large parcel to be sold and rather than put it up in one go, they are doing it in small licks which is less likely to drop the price. They are all coming from the sell side. The giveaway is the timing sequence.

Cheers
Country Lad

Time Price Volume B/S
15:21:19 0.725 17 S
15:21:19 0.725 2 S
15:21:18 0.725 1,388 S
15:19:19 0.725 155 S
15:19:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:17:19 0.725 5 S
15:17:19 0.725 151 S
15:17:18 0.725 1,208 S
15:15:19 0.725 100 S
15:15:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:13:19 0.725 139 S
15:13:19 0.725 1 S
15:13:18 0.725 1,086 S
15:09:19 0.725 1 S
15:09:19 0.725 157 S
15:09:18 0.725 1,208 S
15:07:19 0.725 6 S
15:07:19 0.725 151 S
15:07:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:05:19 0.725 109 S
15:05:18 0.725 1,209 S
15:03:19 0.725 17 S
15:03:19 0.725 88 S
15:03:18 0.725 1,186 S
15:01:19 0.725 131 S
15:01:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:59:19 0.725 7 S
14:59:19 0.725 124 S
14:59:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:57:19 0.725 57 S
14:57:19 0.725 74 S
14:57:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:55:19 0.725 4 S
14:55:19 0.725 2 S
14:55:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:53:18 0.725 1,006 S
14:51:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:45:19 0.725 119 S
14:45:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:43:19 0.725 131 S
14:43:18 0.725 1,006 S
14:41:19 0.725 8 S
14:41:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:39:19 0.725 161 S
14:39:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:37:19 0.725 15 S
14:37:18 0.725 223 S
14:35:19 0.725 71 S
14:35:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:33:19 0.725 10 S
14:33:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:31:19 0.725 65 S
14:31:18 0.725 1,006 S
14:29:19 0.725 133 S
14:29:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:27:19 0.725 133 S
14:27:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:25:19 0.725 50 S
14:25:18 0.725 1,007 S
14:23:18 0.725 881 S
14:21:18 0.725 805 S
14:19:18 0.725 805 S
14:17:18 0.725 806 S
14:15:18 0.725 805 S
14:13:18 0.725 805 S
14:11:18 0.725 633 S

Thanks for that Country Lad its interesting to note that whoever was doing it kept dragging the SP back to 72.5 when it looked like it would have gone to about 74/75 I wonder if it was the Company getting rid of some allocated shares.
Tks

 

[Country Lad]

Thanks for that Country Lad its interesting to note that whoever was doing it kept dragging the SP back to 72.5 when it looked like it would have gone to about 74/75

You are proably right that if that seller was not there, then the price may have increased, however, the alternative would be to place the whole parcel at 72.5 creating the problem that other sellers would need to wait till they are all gone, or go lower to be at the top of the queue, which is more likely, and drive the prices lower.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[RaymondJ]

Whichever way you look at this it is definately suppressing the stock price and there were plenty of buyers monday but theyve all been taken out by whoever is doing all this selling. Have a look at how there doing it watch the buyers side and the sellers side they are definately in synch and they are always selling it downwards. If you wanted to avoid suppressing the stock price you would sell it up not down.

Cheers Country no one else seems to want to post anything on this site any more.

 

[AngusSmart]

I cant see any short selling today on Sea..

Txn and Aut had a small amount..

Would love to top up at these levels..

 

[mr. jeff]

Whichever way you look at this it is definately suppressing the stock price and there were plenty of buyers monday but theyve all been taken out by whoever is doing all this selling. Have a look at how there doing it watch the buyers side and the sellers side they are definately in synch and they are always selling it downwards. If you wanted to avoid suppressing the stock price you would sell it up not down.

Cheers Country no one else seems to want to post anything on this site any more.

Widely held stock going down = no posts
Widely held stock going up = lots of posts

narrowly held stock going down = "the bots...."
narrowly held stock that had a good day = " I can't believe people aren't on this..."
narrowly held stock having a good run = PM ME RIGHT NOW

and no I don't mean hit me with Julia Gillard

 

[RaymondJ]

Hey there guys thanks for the input
So true Mr Jeff
Id wait for todays opening before you top up Angus there was a horror show in the U.S in commodities last night a trading halt was called to stop prices going so low.

Anyway Im holding on as the longer term outlook for oil is good and maybee a lower oil price will be good for fuel usage.

tks bye

 

[howmanyru]

Wow, I purchased this stock at 80c thinking that would be near the bottom. Already sitting on an 18% loss and now not sure what to do. I know it's a dumb question but does anyone have a clue as to how low this stock may go in the short term ?