Sorry guys I mucked up.
Sorry if i alarmed anyone.
Taking some heat on this name.
SEA - Sundance Energy Australia
- Thread starter wipz
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Sorry guys I mucked up.
Sorry if i alarmed anyone.
Taking some heat on this name.
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Could this soon be a possible breakout upwards? I don't know very much about technicals but SEA over 3 months is still trending UPWARDS and a month graph shows highs and lows converging... well from how I view it anyways..
also, noting very small volume pushing SEA down too.
also, noting very small volume pushing SEA down too.
Heres what I think may be keeping these oil coy's SP low
1. There is a big oil glut in the U.S at the moment, the biggest for a long time. the stocks of oil in Cushing are rising every week. Thats why the variation in price between the WTI oil and the European/middle east price is so high. The U.S is the biggest user of energy in the world.
The good news on this is that the driving season in the U.S is comming up and the refineries are just starting to increase production of fuel. The fuel stocks have been falling lately. So it wont be long before the oil stocks start dropping I hope!
2. When the Libyan thing eases the price of oil will drop significantly.
3. The Japanese crises is affecting the price as well.
The coy is in a good position and I think things will get better soon.
Anyway feel free to critisize.
1. There is a big oil glut in the U.S at the moment, the biggest for a long time. the stocks of oil in Cushing are rising every week. Thats why the variation in price between the WTI oil and the European/middle east price is so high. The U.S is the biggest user of energy in the world.
The good news on this is that the driving season in the U.S is comming up and the refineries are just starting to increase production of fuel. The fuel stocks have been falling lately. So it wont be long before the oil stocks start dropping I hope!
2. When the Libyan thing eases the price of oil will drop significantly.
3. The Japanese crises is affecting the price as well.
The coy is in a good position and I think things will get better soon.
Anyway feel free to critisize.
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Silly question maybe but, what does you mean by Coy? also, You're hoping oil stock as in the reserves not the SP right? lol
Thanks for the interest in my post
by coy i mean company and yes Im hoping the oil reserves at cushing will start to be used and the amount of oil they have in their tanks will deminish. The U.S is comming into the highest fuel use period of the year soon, theyve nicknamed it the driving season for obvious reasons I guess. If you have a look on the Etrade website under quotes and research tab and then commodities report you will see they have published something similar this morning on their morning oil futures report. I think SEA has seen a lot of profit taking as well from the last plunge in price but that seems to be abating and as of close today there was 1 big number on the sell side of 144000 or there abouts so friday might be better.
I do hold this stock and I will be buying more tomorrow hopefully
Good luck
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Raymond,
I do have an aposing view but also could be way off track.
Demand for oil world-wide is growing not shrinking and also, demand for USA to produce more instead of relying on imports would be very high on their agenda.
In relation to the SP drop, it appears many small cap oilers are down around 20%, (AUT, EKA, HOG, and SEA ). No dramas, as all have had a great ride over the past 6 months and have to have a consolodation stage and a profit taking time.
For those lucky enough to have extra money, great time to buy more ready for the next leg up. TXN has taken all mine.
I'm currently out of SEA but believe it is a great CO.
Good luck.
I do have an aposing view but also could be way off track.
Demand for oil world-wide is growing not shrinking and also, demand for USA to produce more instead of relying on imports would be very high on their agenda.
In relation to the SP drop, it appears many small cap oilers are down around 20%, (AUT, EKA, HOG, and SEA ). No dramas, as all have had a great ride over the past 6 months and have to have a consolodation stage and a profit taking time.
For those lucky enough to have extra money, great time to buy more ready for the next leg up. TXN has taken all mine.
I'm currently out of SEA but believe it is a great CO.
Good luck.
Sure demand is growing but at the moment the glut of oil at the Cushing plant is weighing on these shale oil drillers have a look at some of the reports about U.S oil reserves. This is the biggest glut of oil for about 30 years I think I read , dont quote me on that. Anyway the oil reserves at cushing will start to come down soon as the refineries have been operating under reduced capacity and some have been scaled back for maintanance. They are slowly ramping up now. This is just my idea as to why the shale oil drillers SP is well down.
If there is another reason that somebody knows about please share it. We all know the problems in the world are still weighing.
I look forward to somebody elses ideas on this to enlighten us all as know one seems to know and SEA is about 18c of its high. I didnt buy in today as I think it might drop a bit more yet.
Just my idea
thanks for youre reply Assasin
A shortened report re: oil stocks in U.S
*******************************
DJ OIL FUTURES: Crude Adds Gains Despite Building US Inventories 07/04/2011 05:36AM AEST
By Jerry A. DiColo
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Oil prices have flirted with new multiyear highs for nearly a week, with the ongoing civil war in Libya and unrest in the Middle East leaving investors wary of betting on falling prices. With few developments in the region, however, traders are cautious about a price correction as well, particularly as oil inventories build in the U.S.
The situation has led to dropping contract volumes on Nymex and a stall in the $10 price surge since mid-March.
"We hit those highs, but then backed off pretty aggressively. We might be in a little bit of a pause," said Zachary Oxman, managing director at TrendMax Futures.
]In Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for the Nymex's WTI contract, inventories were unchanged at a record-high 41.9 million barrels. Brimming oil tanks at the Oklahoma town have kept WTI trading at a steep discount to Brent crude--the contract used widely in Europe--in recent months
The differential was less than $14 Wednesday. Typically the two contracts trade within a $1 of each other. The two contracts traded in opposite directions Tuesday, as fighting in Libya caused traders to bid up the Brent contract, while elevated Cushing stocks kept WTI under pressure.
I take what journos are saying with a grain of salt.
Theres a fair bit weighing in on the markets at the moment.
Just had the Japan mess. People are still waiting to see the impact of that on japans and global growth.
There is the political instability in the middle east. Which may sound good for the oil price but for every 10 bucks oil goes up it shaves 25bps of global growth. With that some larger instos are ripping cash out of equities and risk assets (Small cap equities) and pushing down apetite for stocks like this. Its one thing to find a company that has discovered the fountain of youth but its another thing trying to work out who wants to own it, why, when.
Ohh and theres the euro credit mess in the background.
The markets need to consolidate and absorb all this and find direction. Till this happens a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines.
Back to journos..... They write what people want to read....
I work as a investment analyst. In my time in that role. I have found that 75% of the work is in finding out who talks the $hit and removing from your rational thinking and decision making.
I found this site to be pretty useful as a backbone for a number of assumptions.
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/index.php?inc=products&id=cp3
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/ABNEM1104.pdf
Conndog you have gone quiet there mate.
I respect your views and would love to hear some of your bottom-up input.
Yes I agree if you look at my previous post you will see I put in about the Japenese crises and the middle east crises but in my opinion the glut of oil is having a significant impact as well on oil companies supplying thru cushing at the moment. But if you want to disregard my opinion im ok with that.
bye now
Condog is posting on the AUT blog
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OIL up again busting the $1.12 level.. see how it goes this week. Going by the chart as there aren't any new updates on the fundamentals to talk about at the moment we might see another surge upwards soon?
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Have a look at this trading keeping us down... any ideas?
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Well another day and another bit of a slide for SEA.. hope it doesn't break the 86/85c mark. I still don't see any reason for this slide back though. Oil is up drilling is going as planned and the US is 'okay'. I don't see the oil glut in the US being a big problem... just look at the price of oil...
Crude Oil Advances as U.S. Gasoline Inventories Drop the Most in 12 Years
By Mark Shenk - Apr 14, 2011 5:42 AM GMT+1000 Tweet inShare.6More
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .Crude oil rose after a U.S. government report showed inventories of gasoline plunged the most in 12 years as demand climbed and refineries idled units.
Futures advanced 0.8 percent after the Energy Department said gasoline supplies dropped 7 million barrels to 209.7 million last week. Stockpiles were forecast to decline by 1 million barrels, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Consumption of the fuel climbed the most in more than five months.
“The report today was very interesting because the draw in gasoline stocks was seven times bigger than what people expected,” said Sean Brodrick, a natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “High prices haven’t had enough of an impact on demand to end the bullish trend.”
Crude oil for May delivery increased 86 cents to settle at $107.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 27 percent from a year ago.
Gasoline for May delivery climbed 7.83 cents, or 2.5 percent, to end the session at $3.2424 a gallon in New York.
Crude oil slipped briefly as President Barack Obama called for an overhaul of the U.S. tax code for individuals and businesses and said he wants to raise an additional $1 trillion through tax increases over the next decade. The president spoke at George Washington University in the capital.
Obama urged Congress to raise cash by eliminating so-called tax expenditures, which would generate revenue that could be used to reduce tax rates and also increase the government’s take from the economy. He didn’t provide details about which tax breaks he would curtail or eliminate.
Gasoline Stockpiles
The drop in gasoline inventories was the largest on a per- barrel basis since Oct. 9, 1998. Gasoline supplies have slipped 31.4 million barrels, or 13 percent, in the past eight weeks, the report showed. It’s the longest stretch of declines since the summer of 2008 when prices were at a record.
Demand for the fuel rose 3.7 percent to 9.18 million barrels a day, the biggest increase since the week ended Oct. 22, the report showed.
Refineries operated at 81.4 percent of capacity, down 3 percentage points from the prior week. It was the lowest level since February. An 0.5 percentage-point increase was forecast in the Bloomberg news survey.
Inventories of crude oil rose 1.63 million barrels to 359.3 million, the department said. Supplies were forecast to increase by 1 million barrels.
Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gained 26,000 barrels to 41.9 million, the highest level since at least 2004 when the department began tracking stockpiles at the hub.
‘Plenty of Oil’
“We have plenty of oil,” said Philip Silverman, a principal at Kingsview Management LLC, a commodity trading adviser in New York. “There are record stockpiles at Cushing, which shows that we’re not primarily trading on inventories.”
Prices have advanced 17 percent this year as unrest spread from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. Elections in Nigeria this month may lead to decreased output from Africa’s top crude-producing country.
Libyan rebels require further support to defend civilians against the forces of Muammar Qaddafi, allied nations said following a meeting in Qatar. A United Nations resolution authorizing a no-fly zone over Libya provides for self-defense and Qatar would “look into” supplying equipment for this, Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim Al-Thani said today.
‘Short-Sighted’ Trade
“It’s very short-sighted to trade on inventory data for last week when the main factor driving the market is geopolitical risk,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.
Brent oil for May settlement climbed $1.96, or 1.6 percent, to end the session at $122.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Oil prices are likely to remain “high” as the impact on fuel demand from this year’s rally will probably be limited, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Prices may temporarily exceed $140 a barrel in the next three months as consumption expands “rapidly” and armed conflict curbs supplies from Libya, according to the Merrill report dated yesterday.
Crude oil also rose after the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales climbed in March for a ninth consecutive month, showing the improving job market is helping Americans cope with higher costs for fuel and food.
Purchases increased 0.4 percent following a 1.1 percent February gain that was larger than previously estimated, government figures showed today in Washington.
Retail Sales
“The retail sales today show that consumers aren’t pulling back, which is a good sign for the overall economy and demand,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston.
Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 902,115 contracts as of 3:12 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 1.09 million contracts yesterday, 36 percent above the average of the past three months and the highest level since Feb. 24. Open interest was 1.58 million contracts the most since March 14.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net.
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Well I don't think the dual listing was bad for AUT... everyone oiler has been down in the last little while unfortunately. However, SEA now has a lot of money to throw around and big plans it seems. Too bad the market didn't like this and ending down 4c. Although, the announcement was release in the last hour of trade. Will be interesting tomorrow...
Im thinking that the price of oil has put the brakes on the U.S economy. I mean it had to happen, oil just cant keep going up in price sooner or later it will have an effect on the entire worlds economy. This will slow growth and demand will fall, when the demand falls if the supply doesnt fall with it a surplus appears. Apparently the commodity traders are making the most of it while the company share prices bight the bullet. The surplus at Cushing is still growing although at a slower rate. Soon maybee they will start drawing more oil from the surplus because the Gasoline stocks are falling rapidly.
I cant see a bottom to this SP Slide but I hope its soon
Anyway Im just stating the obvious I guess except when the Libyan thing calms down oil prices may well take a big tumble, and then there is the Japanese thing still getting worse. I read the Japanese govt has said it will be at least 20 years before the fukashima area can be resettled. Crazy stuff nuclear energy.
Good luck
I cant see a bottom to this SP Slide but I hope its soon
Anyway Im just stating the obvious I guess except when the Libyan thing calms down oil prices may well take a big tumble, and then there is the Japanese thing still getting worse. I read the Japanese govt has said it will be at least 20 years before the fukashima area can be resettled. Crazy stuff nuclear energy.
Good luck
I think AUT and SEA are both got a bit of the same disease. They had a 10 fold growth in 2010, and many buyers are questioning value.
But imo both have so many wells happening in 2011, that they will imo rise in value and price considerably. As for when who knows. Right now i believe TXN is about to be the flavour of the month, but i do truly believe SEA will fall back into favour. After all 115 wells gross in 2011 has to have a big effect. 60 in AUt's case, but right now the next 3 months imo will be TXN.
Watch HOG, SEA and AUT in a few months time imo.
Keep a glance on SSN. I dont like the fact they have 1 billion + shares outstanding, but in recent months ive been proved very wrong on that.
But imo both have so many wells happening in 2011, that they will imo rise in value and price considerably. As for when who knows. Right now i believe TXN is about to be the flavour of the month, but i do truly believe SEA will fall back into favour. After all 115 wells gross in 2011 has to have a big effect. 60 in AUt's case, but right now the next 3 months imo will be TXN.
Watch HOG, SEA and AUT in a few months time imo.
Keep a glance on SSN. I dont like the fact they have 1 billion + shares outstanding, but in recent months ive been proved very wrong on that.
This article is from the U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov.com
ENJOY
Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $89 per barrel in February and $103 per barrel in March. The WTI price has continued to rise in recent days, reaching $112 on April 8. Crude oil prices are currently at their highest level since 2008. EIA expects oil markets to continue to tighten over the next two years given expected robust growth in world oil demand and slow growth in supply from non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC) countries. These conditions result in an expected drawdown of global petroleum stocks and a call for increasing production from OPEC member countries, which will reduce surplus crude oil production capacity at a time when the disruption of crude oil exports from Libya and continuing unrest in other Middle East and North African (MENA) countries already highlight significant supply risks. Projected WTI prices average $106 in 2011 and $114 per barrel in 2012, increases of $5 per barrel and $9 per barrel, respectively, from last month's Outlook.
The rise in crude oil prices is reflected in higher petroleum product prices. EIA projects that the retail price of regular-grade motor gasoline will average $3.86 per gallon during this summer’s driving season (the period between April 1 and September 30), up from $2.76 per gallon last summer. EIA forecasts the annual average regular retail gasoline price will increase from $2.78 per gallon in 2010 to $3.70 per gallon in 2011 and to $3.80 per gallon in 2012. Current market prices of futures and options contracts for gasoline suggest a 33-percent probability that the national monthly average retail price for regular gasoline could exceed $4.00 per gallon during July 2011.
Natural gas working inventories ended March 2011 at 1.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly below the 2010 end-of-March level. EIA expects that working gas inventories will remain relatively high throughout 2011. The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.10 per million Btu (MMBtu) in 2011, $0.29 per MMBtu lower than the 2010 average. EIA expects the natural gas market to begin to tighten in 2012, with the Henry Hub spot price increasing to an average of $4.55 per MMBtu.
ENJOY
Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $89 per barrel in February and $103 per barrel in March. The WTI price has continued to rise in recent days, reaching $112 on April 8. Crude oil prices are currently at their highest level since 2008. EIA expects oil markets to continue to tighten over the next two years given expected robust growth in world oil demand and slow growth in supply from non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC) countries. These conditions result in an expected drawdown of global petroleum stocks and a call for increasing production from OPEC member countries, which will reduce surplus crude oil production capacity at a time when the disruption of crude oil exports from Libya and continuing unrest in other Middle East and North African (MENA) countries already highlight significant supply risks. Projected WTI prices average $106 in 2011 and $114 per barrel in 2012, increases of $5 per barrel and $9 per barrel, respectively, from last month's Outlook.
The rise in crude oil prices is reflected in higher petroleum product prices. EIA projects that the retail price of regular-grade motor gasoline will average $3.86 per gallon during this summer’s driving season (the period between April 1 and September 30), up from $2.76 per gallon last summer. EIA forecasts the annual average regular retail gasoline price will increase from $2.78 per gallon in 2010 to $3.70 per gallon in 2011 and to $3.80 per gallon in 2012. Current market prices of futures and options contracts for gasoline suggest a 33-percent probability that the national monthly average retail price for regular gasoline could exceed $4.00 per gallon during July 2011.
Natural gas working inventories ended March 2011 at 1.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly below the 2010 end-of-March level. EIA expects that working gas inventories will remain relatively high throughout 2011. The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.10 per million Btu (MMBtu) in 2011, $0.29 per MMBtu lower than the 2010 average. EIA expects the natural gas market to begin to tighten in 2012, with the Henry Hub spot price increasing to an average of $4.55 per MMBtu.
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It's been down due to the directors selling mass amounts of shares at the 75c level... unfortunate for the holders but this should improve... does anyone have thoughts on the quarterly? Seemed good to me but yeah SEA was down. Hopefully next week we will see some better action above the 80c level.. Dunno if i could buy anotehr few thousand now or wait for the HOG CR??
