SDL - Sundance Resources

[cordelia]

Is anyone suspicious of the broker report mentioned in this thread a few day ago with the prediction in a few years of $4+.

Don't listen to brokers. They know jack sh*t....The only times I have bought on broker recommendation I have lost money. In fact listening to anyone's recommendation and acting upon it without doing your own research is a recipe for failure...

I hold SDL....I bought at .34 and got stopped out at .32 but bought back in last week....so I am confident

 

[ofishl1]

Up, Down, just waiting for the bottom of this curve, around 0.205, and then in again , originally bought in at 0.095 , so as said previously, no brainer

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

As I have said in the past, I always enjoy looking at SDL to try and work out what exactly is it value and upside

So far they have 190Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $570m = 28.5

Then they also have targets of Magnetite type mineralisations refered to as Itaberite and no matter what you call and how you look at it, the grade of sub 55% means that benefication is required, so I treat it like a Magnetite Ore

Anyway they have targets of 1 Billion tonnes to 2.5 Billion tonnes @ 39% Fe given that they are non JORC I think for now a lower end valuation of 25c /t is appropriate however this should move up to 50c a tonne once JORC'd and even $1/t as a takeover target

1Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 390Mt's @ 25c/t = $97.5m = 5c
2.5 Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 975Mt's @ 25c/t = $245m = 12c

So really SDL does kinda look cheap based on these calcs, but then what would I know

I don't hold, just been doing alot of calcs lately for fun on NSL and also looked at CFE and SDL for comparisons

Cheers

JORC upgrade for SDL, also just realise I had an error in previous calculation

200Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $600m = 30c

Now the new JORC for the lower grade, mag style component is

1,190Mts'@38% Fe JORC which is worth 25c/t = $115m = 5.7c

So based on these EV's fair value would be 35c, HOWEVER in the end the mkt will determine fair value

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

As I have said in the past, I always enjoy looking at SDL to try and work out what exactly is it value and upside

So far they have 190Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $950m = 47.5c

Then they also have targets of Magnetite type mineralisations refered to as Itaberite and no matter what you call and how you look at it, the grade of sub 55% means that benefication is required, so I treat it like a Magnetite Ore

Anyway they have targets of 1 Billion tonnes to 2.5 Billion tonnes @ 39% Fe given that they are non JORC I think for now a lower end valuation of 25c /t is appropriate however this should move up to 50c a tonne once JORC'd and even $1/t as a takeover target

1Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 390Mt's @ 25c/t = $97.5m = 5c
2.5 Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 975Mt's @ 25c/t = $245m = 12c

So really SDL does kinda look cheap based on these calcs, but then what would I know

I don't hold, just been doing alot of calcs lately for fun on NSL and also looked at CFE and SDL for comparisons

Cheers

wow, I think I must have damaged my brain partying, I just realised I was only using 25c/t Mag value, but thats the figure you use for targets not JORC, for JORC its 50c/t Mag with an upside to $1 for a takeover, so here's how it should look


JORC upgrade for SDL, also just realise I had an error in previous calculation

200Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $600m = 30c

Now the new JORC for the lower grade, mag style component is

1,190Mts'@38% Fe JORC which is worth 50c/t = $230m = 11c


So target price based on the above EV's = 40c - 45c (with cash and stuff)

Sorry for the mistake in the previous calcs guys,

 

[ocelot]

Not a bad jump today up 23% on some good news. Sure was a lot of trades on this one today 88million plus

 

[hoppielimp]

Hi Ocelot...are you looking at the correct share price ? Its up 43%...not 23...
All good...

Some good results...I guess the big move will really come if something on infrastructure/ports are timetabled.

 

[adluroil]

IMHO 30 MTPA export after operating costs = minimum earnings 1Billion USD
SDL is not a bank where ones capital is safe and average returns are about 7% ( today but not allways the case). So with SDL we would want double that return say 14% .
So a potential buyer /takeover of SDL would get all their capital back in seven years
There for 7Billion USD divided by 2 billion shares = $ 3.50 . This would then leave the buyer 13 years of profits from the remaining life of the mine at todays resource estimates .
So if a buyer is happy with 7 years value of SDL = $3.50 a share
with 8 years value of SDL = $4.00 a share
with 9 years value of SDL = $4.50 a share
with 10 years value of SDL = $5.00 a share

I hold SDL

 

[springhill]

1465 - 1520 2:27:29 pm 27 2,325,002 5 $627,751 56
1464 2:15:45 pm 22 37,778 5 $8,311 1
1461 - 1463 2:15:11 pm 27 234,660 0.5 $63,358 3
1446 - 1460 2:14:06 pm 27.5 418,055 5.5 $114,965 15
1445 2:12:01 pm 22 302,224 5 $66,489 1
1412 - 1444 2:11:35 pm 27 1,555,500 5 $419,985 33
1410 - 1411 2:08:32 pm 22 75,473 5 $16,604 2
1404 - 1409 2:07:04 pm 27 45,600 0.5 $12,312 6
1402 - 1403 2:06:42 pm 26.5 5,848 0.5 $1,550 2
1395 - 1401 2:05:20 pm 27 187,000 0.5 $50,490 7
1382 - 1394 2:03:41 pm 26.5 374,251 4.5 $99,177 13
1381 1:59:49 pm 22 264,446 4.5 $58,178 1
1335 - 1380 1:57:55 pm 26.5 5,626,387 0.5 $1,490,993 46

Was wondering wat is goin on with trades numbers 1464, 1445, 1410-1411 and number 1381? Why would these shares be dumped at 22 cents, 4 to 5 cents below the market value?

 

[Miner]

Hi Ocelot...are you looking at the correct share price ? Its up 43%...not 23...
All good...

Some good results...I guess the big move will really come if something on infrastructure/ports are timetabled.

Has any one really looked into Silica level of ore analysis and considered the operational cost in screening the Silica out to be even with similar FE content ore ? The maintenacne of such high silica plant will be a pain financially and down time wise. But that will be in 2013 so now enjoy the results and gain in SDL !

 

[adluroil]

Hi Ocelot...are you looking at the correct share price ? Its up 43%...not 23...
All good...

Some good results...I guess the big move will really come if something on infrastructure/ports are timetabled.

Hint that the infrastructure costs may be shared in todays ann. with the China National Machinery Corporation.

"Central West Africa is considered to have the potential to develop into a significant new iron province, underpinned by the Mbalam Iron Ore Project and the nearby Belinga Project in Gabon, under development by
the China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation. "

 

[mrgroundwork]

wow, I think I must have damaged my brain partying, I just realised I was only using 25c/t Mag value, but thats the figure you use for targets not JORC, for JORC its 50c/t Mag with an upside to $1 for a takeover, so here's how it should look


JORC upgrade for SDL, also just realise I had an error in previous calculation

200Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $600m = 30c

Now the new JORC for the lower grade, mag style component is

1,190Mts'@38% Fe JORC which is worth 50c/t = $230m = 11c


So target price based on the above EV's = 40c - 45c (with cash and stuff)

Sorry for the mistake in the previous calcs guys,

pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...

please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....

did you also discount them for risk?

 

[mongoose]

1465 - 1520 2:27:29 pm 27 2,325,002 5 $627,751 56
1464 2:15:45 pm 22 37,778 5 $8,311 1
1461 - 1463 2:15:11 pm 27 234,660 0.5 $63,358 3
1446 - 1460 2:14:06 pm 27.5 418,055 5.5 $114,965 15
1445 2:12:01 pm 22 302,224 5 $66,489 1
1412 - 1444 2:11:35 pm 27 1,555,500 5 $419,985 33
1410 - 1411 2:08:32 pm 22 75,473 5 $16,604 2
1404 - 1409 2:07:04 pm 27 45,600 0.5 $12,312 6
1402 - 1403 2:06:42 pm 26.5 5,848 0.5 $1,550 2
1395 - 1401 2:05:20 pm 27 187,000 0.5 $50,490 7
1382 - 1394 2:03:41 pm 26.5 374,251 4.5 $99,177 13
1381 1:59:49 pm 22 264,446 4.5 $58,178 1
1335 - 1380 1:57:55 pm 26.5 5,626,387 0.5 $1,490,993 46

Was wondering wat is goin on with trades numbers 1464, 1445, 1410-1411 and number 1381? Why would these shares be dumped at 22 cents, 4 to 5 cents below the market value?

Overseas cross trades left over from last Friday's trading. as you point out quite a few went through.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...

please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....

did you also discount them for risk?

Just some rough calc's I put together for interests sake,

Mate I'm no analyst or financial advisor, if you want a full blown DCF then contact your broker and see if their analysts cover it,


Personally I think DCF's are wortheless with these kinds of stocks, maybe closer to production but not now, too many variables atm

 

[JTLP]

pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...

please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....

did you also discount them for risk?

LOL!!!

The guy pretty much dedicates his time and research/efforts to give a good quick overview of many stocks (many that have been very profitable for other members) and you come in here and expect him to put on a research hat for 1500 man hours.

Cut the kid a break...YT's where the federal green's at YO!

 

[LRG]

Agree, I like many others enjoy reading and trying to understand all the detailed calcs that YT does on many penny dreadful stocks - most of which aren't so dreadful if you get in and out at the right times.

finding the right exit point is often my issue!

keep up the good work YT - it is appreciated by many on ASF.

 

[Miner]

pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...

please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....

did you also discount them for risk?

mrgroundwork

Great questions but it would be best that you please come out with some high level and advanced work than criticising YT for his analysis. This guy YT has a passion to share his thoughts and analysis with all of us. He could have chosen to keep with himself. So Groundwork please give a break and participate in the forum with some solid contribution before discouraging active participants

I do agree what YT said to respond you and please do consider lot of information are published in this forum are highly educative and even those tie and suit analysts fail to produce even you pay them

It will surely be welcomed by all when you produce and share some good stuff .

 

[hangseng]

Just a note people on an aspect that seems to be misunderstood by some.

Itabirite BIF Fe is not a magnetite ore, it is essentially a lower grade hematite ore sourced from immediately below the subsurface hemetite ore, that once processed through standard benefication becomes a very high grade hemetite ore. A much sought after valuable product in fact.

There is much information available on this.

DISTRIBUTION OF IRON ORES IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
The highest grade iron-ore deposits in the world occur in association with, and are derived from, a particular group of sedimentary rocks. In different countries these rocks are known variously as banded iron formation,
jaspilite, hematite quartzite, taconite, or itabirite[/B]; all are essentially the same rock type.[/B][/COLOR]
source: http://www.doir.wa.gov.au/documents/GSWA_IronOreInWAPamphlet.pdf

Itabirite BIF Fe is actually the main source of Fe in the world with CVRD being not only the largest Fe producer in the world but also of Itabirite BIF Fe. In Australia we are blinded into believing that only the Pilbara hemetite is worth anything. Some actually (wrongly) believing the Pilbara is the largest source of Fe in the world.

So best not to confuse Magnetite with Itabirite, they are essentially two completely different Fe products.

SDL is rapidly becoming a very large project. If the expansion plans are successful it will most definately become a world class Fe province, so far all indications are this will be the case. Mbalam alone is already indicated as being 8% of the entire Cameroon GDP. Add in the rest of the project and you can see why this project will have so much significance to Cameroon and will have no difficulty attracting investment funding and offtake agreements.

 

[spottygoose]

Just a note people on an aspect that seems to be misunderstood by some.

Itabirite BIF Fe is not a magnetite ore, it is essentially a lower grade hematite ore sourced from immediately below the subsurface hemetite ore, that once processed through standard benefication becomes a very high grade hemetite ore. A much sought after valuable product in fact.

There is much information available on this.

DISTRIBUTION OF IRON ORES IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
The highest grade iron-ore deposits in the world occur in association with, and are derived from, a particular group of sedimentary rocks. In different countries these rocks are known variously as banded iron formation,
jaspilite, hematite quartzite, taconite, or itabirite[/B]; all are essentially the same rock type.[/B][/COLOR]
source: http://www.doir.wa.gov.au/documents/GSWA_IronOreInWAPamphlet.pdf

Itabirite BIF Fe is actually the main source of Fe in the world with CVRD being not only the largest Fe producer in the world but also of Itabirite BIF Fe. In Australia we are blinded into believing that only the Pilbara hemetite is worth anything. Some actually (wrongly) believing the Pilbara is the largest source of Fe in the world.

So best not to confuse Magnetite with Itabirite, they are essentially two completely different Fe products.

SDL is rapidly becoming a very large project. If the expansion plans are successful it will most definately become a world class Fe province, so far all indications are this will be the case. Mbalam alone is already indicated as being 8% of the entire Cameroon GDP. Add in the rest of the project and you can see why this project will have so much significance to Cameroon and will have no difficulty attracting investment funding and offtake agreements.

Thank you I was hoping someone would post this info on the forum. After reading similar comments elsewhere I was lead to do a bit of research on Itabirite and you are correct. I was going to post something similar until it started to make my geologically challenged grey matter start to ache.

 

[LRG]

thanx hang seng and spotty goose.

IMO this is a pearla of a stock for the long term.

i am gradually building my holding and hope to cash in in 2013/14, pay my max 25% CGT and then buy a holiday house at the beach with what is left (based on the BBY recommendation forecast SP in the future - which I am holding out as GOSPEL). If they are wrong can we sue?

I hope to be able to keep buying in the 20 - 30 cents over the next few months if possible to increase my holdings as cash comes available. My plan to sell NSL at a huge gain has come unstuck - so funds nedd to come from hard work in myday job again to buy moe SDL - darn it!

 

[lioness]

thanx hang seng and spotty goose.

IMO this is a pearla of a stock for the long term.

i am gradually building my holding and hope to cash in in 2013/14, pay my max 25% CGT and then buy a holiday house at the beach with what is left (based on the BBY recommendation forecast SP in the future - which I am holding out as GOSPEL). If they are wrong can we sue?

I hope to be able to keep buying in the 20 - 30 cents over the next few months if possible to increase my holdings as cash comes available. My plan to sell NSL at a huge gain has come unstuck - so funds nedd to come from hard work in myday job again to buy moe SDL - darn it!

All I can do is laugh at this post. Throw a bucket of water on yourself and scream 'AHHHH, I am melting, I am melting' HAAHAHAHAH