SDL - Sundance Resources

[hangseng]

Hangseng: I agree with you 100% Also there is greater probablility that IO prices will be higher in 2011 than they are now.
The Capex was done before these new huge IO price increases
100% increases . I am sure the Capex is not going to increase by 100%.
All calculations are being done on worst price scenarios and it is still under valued. And they are adding to the resource.? You dont have to be very
good at maths to come to some conclusion here.

Sundance is simply a no brainer for me now aduroil, probably the easiest investment decision I have ever made. All of the reports an information point toward SDL being a low cost, world class BIF Fe operation now, with full local and Govt support. Big financiers will flock to this as some already have at 40c a share (Sarich/Talbot), watch the next and biggest come in as guaranteed "offtake" agreements

 

[Piggy Bank]

"Further to confirmation of the expiry of unlisted options dated 30 May 2008, the directors of Sundance
Resources Limited (ASX: SDL) wish to advise that one option exercisable at 3 cents and expiring on 30 June
2008 has not been exercised and therefore has expired."

What a joke of an announcement! One option worth 3 cents not exercised! I realise that the company needs to formally notify the market but what a waste of time. Looking forward to some real news. My 3 cents

 

[hangseng]

This might help.

23 Monday June 2008 6:57

"Mbalam iron ore project increases capacity"

"International iron ore company Sundance Resources Ltd has provided an update on exploration activities at its 90%-owned Mbalam Iron Ore Project in Cameroon, West Africa.Drilling capacity at the Mbalam Project has been substantially increased with six rigs now on site. Five of these rigs are currently operating with the final rig expected to be commissioned this weekend.The new drilling capacity includes the two new Thor Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling rigs manufactured in South Africa and two RC rigs and a diamond drilling rig supplied by international drilling contractor Ausdrill. In total, Sundance has four RC rigs and two diamond rigs on site. This will significantly enhance drilling productivity and enable the Company to accelerate its assessment of both Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) and itabirite hematite mineralization at Mbalam.Sundance has an extensive exploration program planned for 2008 with a total exploration budget of approximately $35 million which is fully funded from the company’s existing cash reserves of $62 million. Two RC rigs and two diamond rigs are currently testing the extent and depth of the resource potential on the Mbarga prospect. One RC rig is currently testing the Mbarga South prospect, which was identified during surface mapping and preliminary drilling in the December quarter. It is intended to shortly dispatch two of the RC rigs to start drilling the Metzimevin prospect in the June quarter.Sundance CEO Mr Don Lewis said: “We are pleased with the initial performance of the new rigs and are already seeing the benefits of increased drilling rates. The new RC rigs are drilling to depths of up to 300m and the diamond rigs will continue to drill holes to 300-500m depth–We continue to be encouraged by the progress of exploration at Mbalam and expect to progressively announce tonnage ranges for both DSO and itabirite hematite mineralisation.”

 

[discman]

broker report from BBY

A very encourage broker report from BBY
They value the share price at $4.26 per share by 2013.

That is more than 1400% in 5 years. (currently at $0.30)

BBY broker report

Wow, I must be dreaming...

 

[indigotiling]

such positive news regarding sdl,and the best is yet to come but the stock is still dropping.im happy to wait for the pot of gold.

just my opinion.

 

[hangseng]

Re: broker report from BBY

A very encourage broker report from BBY
They value the share price at $4.26 per share by 2013.

That is more than 1400% in 5 years. (currently at $0.30)

BBY broker report

Wow, I must be dreaming...

I don't think you are dreaming discman. BBY has it right in my opinion.

I patiently await the BIF (Itabrite) drilling results. This will be very positive and I believe cause a significant re-rating of SDL. The port and rail line isn't being built just because of a 1Bt resource, this will be much bigger I believe.

 

[Sean K]

Re: broker report from BBY

I don't think you are dreaming discman. BBY has it right in my opinion.

Interesting report. I like the peer comparison with the recent deals in Brazil. Should be worth around $1 a tn....

Funding's the issue. Once (if) they get a bit investor on board should be rerated.

 

[discman]

Re: broker report from BBY

Funding's the issue. Once (if) they get a bit investor on board should be rerated.

I agree funding is the issue, luckily, it already had a big player on board. Talbot is holding 19.9% of the company.

In current credit market, all Junior resource companies are facing same difficulty when come to funding. With the help from big player (like Talbot), I think, at less it will have better chance when compare with other Juniors.

 

[RP_Automotive]

With the latest stock performance it seems alot of SDL people are just in for the short term. At 25c a share this a chest of gold. I can understand there is still risk, but the chances of SDL not confirming a nice amount of Fe and the recent (and continuing) rise in commodity prices, its looking good.

I'll see you all in the foyer of the Hilton at any location around the world in 5 years time.

 

[ocelot]

Whilst I am keeping investment in SDL the current price makes me want to find some more $$$ and buy some more. Wonder when she is going to turn around?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Those 2 transactions BBY cite make me think has a new Benchmark been set for Mag worldwide?


Anglo Deal for 49% MINAS RIO RESOURCES JORC 3.79 Billion Tonnes @ 33% Fe = 1.264 Billion Tonnes of Mag = $2 per tonne Mag

The ERNC / BML Deal 100% JORC 1.96 Billion Tonnes @ 32% Fe = 630 Million Tonnes Mag = $1 per tonne Mag


Maybe $1/t is the new deal EV for Mag worldwide?

 

[springhill]

Whilst I am keeping investment in SDL the current price makes me want to find some more $$$ and buy some more. Wonder when she is going to turn around?

I agree ocelot, seems good value ATM, at a critical support level here, if t breaks this line of support i think next level is at 17 cents from memory, coincidently what i bought in at... luky enough to be freeholding them. Think we will have to wait for further resource upgrades for this one to move again, management are doing well in this respect and have 5-6 drill units on site... only a matter of time. Does suffer from large number of shares on offer tho

 

[LRG]

Yes, i'm in for the long haul here too. Can't wait for 5 years but will.

Just picked up a few more today at 24.5c. I first purchases early in the year at 44.5c only to see them make that low of 18 cents or whatever it was a few months back.

Have some NSL which I hope to offload next week so I can pick up more SDL for the long term. I like the 19.9% Talbot connection very much.

IMO this one has the cred - but I have been way wrong before too!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

JORC 190Mt's@60%Fe = 114Mt's DSO Haematite

Value I'd say $5/t = $570m = 28.5c SDL, (trading pretty close to fair value)

Note even though some would argue a heavy discounting of $5/t EV given SDL is in Africa and the Cap Ex is huge (ie $3.5Billion+) I have chosen $5/t as SDL has a very very large Magnetite target "Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of Itabirite mineralisation" = 2Bt's-2.5Bt's@35%-45%Fe

Was just reading SDL's ann today,

Those are some impressive estimates,

Latest geological modelling (non JORC-Code compliant) of the Mbarga Deposit has outlined the potential for 1.0 – 1.2 billion tonnes itabirite-style mineralisation at an average grade of approximately 39% Fe. This is based on all assay data received from the areas drilled to date

The geological modelling has also updated the potential Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) tonnage from the Mbarga Deposit. Latest estimates range from 100 to 140 million tonnes hematite at an average grade of approximately 60% Fe, 0.09% P and 3.4% Al2O3.

Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of itabirite-style mineralisation.

So they are currently targeting 1Bt's-1.2Bt's of Mag @ 39% Fe
+ 100 -140Mt's@60%Fe DSO Heamatite
and have an end target of 2-2.5Billion Tonnes of Mag

Those are some very large numbers

As I have said in the past, I always enjoy looking at SDL to try and work out what exactly is it value and upside

So far they have 190Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $950m = 47.5c

Then they also have targets of Magnetite type mineralisations refered to as Itaberite and no matter what you call and how you look at it, the grade of sub 55% means that benefication is required, so I treat it like a Magnetite Ore

Anyway they have targets of 1 Billion tonnes to 2.5 Billion tonnes @ 39% Fe given that they are non JORC I think for now a lower end valuation of 25c /t is appropriate however this should move up to 50c a tonne once JORC'd and even $1/t as a takeover target

1Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 390Mt's @ 25c/t = $97.5m = 5c
2.5 Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 975Mt's @ 25c/t = $245m = 12c

So really SDL does kinda look cheap based on these calcs, but then what would I know

I don't hold, just been doing alot of calcs lately for fun on NSL and also looked at CFE and SDL for comparisons

Cheers

 

[adluroil]

YT are you hinting that you have just realized in your calculations that if NSL is revalued at 20cents then SDL is a bargain at todays price .

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Not hinting at anything other than its interesting to watch the Fe sector develop as the Chinese continue to pay up for the material,

Also was reading the BBY report and thought I'd run my own numbers to see where I came up

In case you aren't sure I don't hold SDL, are you hinting to me that I should? :

 

[adluroil]

An interesting article
Seems that the Cameroon Government will be helping with port facilities and possibly the railway also with the help of some land locked adjacent countries.



KRIBI DEEP-SEA PORT PROJECT PUBLIC INVITATION N ° 0006 MINEPAT/2008 TO SUBMIT AN EXPRESSION
Written by Administrator
Wednesday, 02 July 2008
KRIBI DEEP-SEA PORT PROJECT

PUBLIC INVITATION N ° 0006 MINEPAT/2008 TO SUBMIT AN EXPRESSION OF INTEREST FOR FUNDING, BUILDING AND OPERATING THE KRIBI DEEP-SEA PORT


BACKGROUND

1.1. Project
The Government of Cameroon seeks partners to fund, build and operate a deep-sea port in Kribi, a locality situated at the sea front of Cameroon in Central Africa in the Gulf of Guinea.
The project will allow for the construction of deep-sea port facilities that would receive large vessels in view of handling various traffic, including:
- Traffic associated with mining of deposits (iron ore, bauxite, nickel, cobalt and rutile, etc. ) and related industrial activities ;
- Hydrocarbon traffic;
- Container traffic that is fast increasing in the sub-region (Cameroon and its landlocked neighbouring countries, namely Chad, CAR, North Congo, North DRC);
- Traffic associated with transhipment and redistribution of containers along the West African Coastal area.

Technical, economic, financial and environmental studies conducted reveal that the project bears a real economic interest for Cameroon and countries of the sub-region on the one hand and a financial interest for investors, businesses and port operators on the other hand. As a matter of fact, it is an over-arching and income generating project that will promote sub-regional integration as well as development of industries, urban, transport and energy infrastructure and sustainable improvement of the living conditions of the people.
1.2. Execution arrangements
The project shall be implemented under partnership contracts. In fact, Cameroon and contractors shall sign agreements for funding and/or building and/or operating part or all port facilities. These agreements shall be reached following a tender selection and contract awarding procedure as spelled out in law No2006/012 of 29 December 2006 on rules and regulations governing partnership contracts in Cameroon as well as its implementing instruments.
These agreements would concern the following lots:
Group 1: Construction of basic facilities: funding and construction of the seawall, access channel, dock, wharves, pack and main utility service (sanitation, roads, railways, water, electricity, communication services)
Lot 1.1: Seawall
Lot 1.2: Dredging activities and packs (access channel, dock, and embankment)
Lot 1.3: Wharves
Lot 1.4: Main utility service
Group 2 : Construction of terminals:
- Funding
- Construction of infrastructure and superstructure
- Terminal equipment
- operating terminals

full article at this link

http://www.minpat.gov.cm/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=226&Itemid=97

 

[hangseng]

Good find and read adluroil. I have seen this recently but good to see it posted up again, this is very relevant to SDL.

One of the least understood aspects of the SDL Mbalam Project.

SDL do not have to pay for the complete rail line, nor will they be paying for the Deep Water Port facility. This is a project in itself and is being fast tracked by the Cameroon Govt. The Cameroon Govt will own and operate the infrastructure. That is not to say investors and SDL won't be contributing, I am sure they will be.

SDL will be paying for the section of line and loading facilities at both ends relating specifically to Mbalam and any extensions to the mine. And there will be extensions, very large extensions.

SDL also has none of the problems faced by FMG, such as ongoing court battles to gain access to BHP/Rio rail or port access.

A little hint for avid researchers out there. Follow closely the planned construction route of the line at and around the Mbalam region and who the investors are that come into this infrastructure project. Your findings as this develops will begin to add clarity to coming events with SDL.

People are struggling to understand what is going on in Cameroon. This is a strongly supported project by both the Cameroon Govt and investors will be lining up to participate. It is quite simply one of the best world class Fe projects that will be developed. Jones didn't want the merger to go ahead for no reason. He knows the value of SDL and you can be sure he will continue to attract significant investment for the project.

Those would have you believe otherwise are very misinformed.

 

[hangseng]

I just found this piece of excellent work I thought may be of interest here.

Well done to bungi2.
source: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=710193&msgno=3106982#3106982

 

[LRG]

SDL has hung in there reasonably well considering the All Ords dipped below 5000 this week.

International markets bounced last night and are looking to another GREEN night tonight. If this continues friday night I think SDL will form a good base again ready to head north for a while.

Is anyone suspicious of the broker report mentioned in this thread a few day ago with the prediction in a few years of $4+. This same report was what got me in when there was an 87c peak as buy. I boght at 44.5c only to see SDL head down to 18 cents.

What is the connnection between SDL and that Brooker - buy reco?

I am in because of the Talbot connection, the cash in the bank, the $'s in confirming the resorce etc etc. But, the ranges of the stock since xmas has been unbelievable.

I hope in 5 years it is a MCC or FMG with exponential SP growth to $5 or more!!