Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Santa Rally 2022

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divs4ever said:
what will be interesting is , IF there is a late rally this week , will it be be broad-based , or focused buying ( and if so, which sectors are preferred )
Click to expand...
That is a really interesting point.

Should some sort of rally occur, it wouldn't be surprising to see something broad-based, or possibly even leaning slightly towards the "riskier" sectors, as traders speculate on shift in sentiment in 2023 after what has been a largely risk-off year.
 
i was hoping more for guidance on sector rotation

but any accurate tips ( on future trends ) would be helpful in what i expect to be a tough year

but defensive ( to protect against a big downturn ) v. 'growth ' ( trying to outpace inflation ) will be an interesting battle to watch

maybe taxes will be a deciding factor ( governments trying to claw in more revenue ) do governments increase royalties , or maybe capital gains taxes , or perhaps squeeze real estate harder

my pick is governments will chase more revenue rather than trim costs/expenditure ( despite my wish they would slim down government )
 
am actually waiting for a santa rally to buy cheap Bear ETFs.All is good guys, Ulraine war:putin is over, Europe is booming as do the US , China is booming and Xi down and Australia sees no limit in the new green world
buy buy buy!!! :)
 
divs4ever said:
i was hoping more for guidance on sector rotation

but any accurate tips ( on future trends ) would be helpful in what i expect to be a tough year

but defensive ( to protect against a big downturn ) v. 'growth ' ( trying to outpace inflation ) will be an interesting battle to watch

maybe taxes will be a deciding factor ( governments trying to claw in more revenue ) do governments increase royalties , or maybe capital gains taxes , or perhaps squeeze real estate harder

my pick is governments will chase more revenue rather than trim costs/expenditure ( despite my wish they would slim down government )
Click to expand...
Hello divs4ever,

rcw1 likes commodities ...
Australia likes commodities....
The world likes commodities...

Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw

Location of projects at the committed stage, as at 31 October 2022:
(Source: Department of Industry, Science and Resources (2022)
Location of projects at the committed stage, as at 31 October 2022.png
 
Being an accumulator not a trader , I've found the quiet time when fundies are away and b4 resolutions are enacted to have been a good time to partake in some buy action. I mean, if there's going to be a rally, may as well hang around and enjoy it.

Some might find that counterintuitive, but it's worked for me.

Taking Tiger Mountain by Strategy.
 
rcw1 said:
Hello divs4ever,

rcw1 likes commodities ...
Australia likes commodities....
The world likes commodities...

Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw

Location of projects at the committed stage, as at 31 October 2022:
(Source: Department of Industry, Science and Resources (2022)
View attachment 150663
Click to expand...
i have done ( fairly ) well in commodities as well , but in a world buried in debt who is going to consume those commodities in the next two years , since Australia would rather extract and export , rather than value add first , and since we don't value-add , where is the next wave of exploration/development capital coming from

do we extract , export and waste money on silly war games ( which translates to no capex in the next 5 years ) or do we get serious and re-industrialize Australia , if Russia can be ( nearly ) self-sufficient why can't Australia , the weather is much better here ( sun-power, wind-power, wave-power, uranium , oil , gas , coal all there to be tapped wisely )
 
divs4ever said:
i have done ( fairly ) well in commodities as well , but in a world buried in debt who is going to consume those commodities in the next two years , since Australia would rather extract and export , rather than value add first , and since we don't value-add , where is the next wave of exploration/development capital coming from

do we extract , export and waste money on silly war games ( which translates to no capex in the next 5 years ) or do we get serious and re-industrialize Australia , if Russia can be ( nearly ) self-sufficient why can't Australia , the weather is much better here ( sun-power, wind-power, wave-power, uranium , oil , gas , coal all there to be tapped wisely )
Click to expand...
Good evening divs4ever,
The La Niña weather pattern is forecast to fade in early 2023, the weather man reckons and the Indian Ocean Dipole appears to be normalising. Nice. In combination, this reduces the chances of wetter-than-normal conditions in eastern Australia, easing concerns about disruptions to mining operations and rail transportation.

Food for thought.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Being an accumulator not a trader , I've found the quiet time when fundies are away and b4 resolutions are enacted to have been a good time to partake in some buy action. I mean, if there's going to be a rally, may as well hang around and enjoy it.

Some might find that counterintuitive, but it's worked for me.

Taking Tiger Mountain by Strategy.
Click to expand...
i would rather recycle the investment cash and let the profits run ( where sensible ) but the cycles might be out of sync this time , picking the best trend might be difficult

i have had several surprises in my selections ( clean energy technology has mostly been a bust for me ) what appears to have growth becomes a money pit ( or just a trap ) a boring bottom-drawer stock ( like BKL ) turned into a multi-bagger ,

interesting times ahead
 
rcw1 said:
Good evening divs4ever,
The La Niña weather pattern is forecast to fade in early 2023, the weather man reckons and the Indian Ocean Dipole appears to be normalising. Nice. In combination, this reduces the chances of wetter-than-normal conditions in eastern Australia, easing concerns about disruptions to mining operations and rail transportation.

Food for thought.

Kind regards
rcw1
Click to expand...
wetter than normal is good for D20 , normal is better for RFF , but all these 'normal conditions ' aren't so good if commodity prices drop in parallel , and more production will exacerbate any skill shortages .

remember Albo is trying to stare down China but not warm up relations with India and Mexico
 
divs4ever said:
wetter than normal is good for D20 , normal is better for RFF , but all these 'normal conditions ' aren't so good if commodity prices drop in parallel , and more production will exacerbate any skill shortages .

remember Albo is trying to stare down China but not warm up relations with India and Mexico
Click to expand...
Hello again divs4ever
Extraction , production and transportation costs crippling when price not there, 100%, nevertheless, wouldn't want to see any disruptions to this. Commodity prices reliant on demand and supply. All depends...

Ah yes the politicians, who knows, don't really think they do either... ha ha ha ha. Our elected representatives.
Been doing some reading about China and India, particularly with respect to consumer demand for gold. Havn't quite got the bottom of it all yet.

Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Good evening divs4ever,
The La Niña weather pattern is forecast to fade in early 2023, the weather man reckons and the Indian Ocean Dipole appears to be normalising. Nice. In combination, this reduces the chances of wetter-than-normal conditions in eastern Australia, easing concerns about disruptions to mining operations and rail transportation.
Click to expand...
I do wonder also about the effect the weather may have had on consumer sentiment and spending?

Purely anecdotal but as of a few weeks ago, people seemed to be getting well and truly over it and that may well have contributed to a sense of doom and gloom.
 
Smurf1976 said:
I do wonder also about the effect the weather may have had on consumer sentiment and spending?

Purely anecdotal but as of a few weeks ago, people seemed to be getting well and truly over it and that may well have contributed to a sense of doom and gloom.
Click to expand...
Hello Smurf1976
Yeah agree, dispair, emotional and financial hurt and loss from weather events..,

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Good evening divs4ever,
The La Niña weather pattern is forecast to fade in early 2023, the weather man reckons and the Indian Ocean Dipole appears to be normalising. Nice. In combination, this reduces the chances of wetter-than-normal conditions in eastern Australia, easing concerns about disruptions to mining operations and rail transportation.

Food for thought.

Kind regards
rcw1
Click to expand...
It also means warmer ,drier, droughts and fires.. which will be blamed on cow belching and mining..
can not win ....
 
rcw1 said:
Hello again divs4ever
Extraction , production and transportation costs crippling when price not there, 100%, nevertheless, wouldn't want to see any disruptions to this. Commodity prices reliant on demand and supply. All depends...

Ah yes the politicians, who knows, don't really think they do either... ha ha ha ha. Our elected representatives.
Been doing some reading about China and India, particularly with respect to consumer demand for gold. Havn't quite got the bottom of it all yet.

Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1
Click to expand...
gold is very important in the Indian marriage ceremony , so that is almost guaranteed consumer demand there ( the 'marriage season also makes Indian retail demand rather seasonal

have a good night

PS i should probably more friendly to the Indian neighbours up the street and get a better idea on their culture ( so far there are so many ethnic groups in the street i have tried to stay neutral with them all )

cheers
 
JohnDe said:
More like a santa smile. When it's above 1st December numbers I think that we can call it a rally.
Click to expand...
The bounce from near the 200-day MA is an encouraging sign, but XJO is now seeing some resistance from the August highs and monthly pivot point right around 7140. Perhaps a break above this level can allows for a retest of the Dec 1 highs, although time is running out for it to be considered a Santa Rally.
 

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