S&P 500 Seasonal Low

[Smurf1976]

So all it would take is one Fed hike for curve inversion.

In the majority of cases the market top occurs alongside that curve inversion give or a take 1-2 months.

Also many other factors (fundamentals) point to the notion that the US is somewhere in the vicinity of a major market top. It doesn't really matter which measure you pick - they all say pretty much the same thing in terms of where we're at.

The only way I can see a major top not occurring in 2019 is if it has in fact already occurred in September 2018.

 

[sptrawler]

Also many other factors (fundamentals) point to the notion that the US is somewhere in the vicinity of a major market top. It doesn't really matter which measure you pick - they all say pretty much the same thing in terms of where we're at.

The big end of Town, has to be able to off load. IMO

 

[Student of Gann]

Price did pull back 52 points from 2519 to make low at 2467 on the intraday chart on the 2nd January however the 2440 price target was not achieved. Top is indicated for the 16th January and contained within this Cycle there are two minor cycles the first being 2nd January which was only a minor price pullback and the 10th January with the Main Top coming in on the 16th January before trend reversal.

 

[Student of Gann]

Looks like the minor pullback point came in one day later than the projected 2nd January point. Sometimes cycles can have a -/+ 1 day tolerance . Last nights low at 2446 is six points above the 2440 octave point which indicates resumption of uptrend into the 16th January.

 

[Student of Gann]

+234 points off 2346 26th December Low.

 

[Student of Gann]

2586 is trine 2346 Low and the inner octave midpoint is at 2583. If 2586 doesn't hold we could pull back into the 10th January before trend resumes.

 

[Student of Gann]

looks like trend is running according to the 1st timing model with Top at 10th January with trend projected to pullback into the 16th - 17th January . I just had a look at WPL and that should also pullback into the 16th - 17th January before resumption of uptrend .

 

[Student of Gann]

2623 16th Jan Top.. First timing sequence looks like it was right from the outset. There were two conflicting minor cycles operating concurrently which made it difficult to establish direction but looks like this date and this price level will hold.

 

[Student of Gann]

Looks like a Seasonal High is in place at 2918 17th April 2019 . Price should move down from this point.

 

[kid hustlr]

Can't argue with your timing last time.

Watching closely!

 

[Student of Gann]

Preliminary analysis indicates price could move down into the 7th - 9th May completing the first minor cycle.

 

[Student of Gann]

12th June 2910 should be Counter Trend High. 182 points square 9 Degree Time Angle .

 

[Student of Gann]

Might see bottom on the 9th August just above the 45 Degree Angle at 2806 .

 

[$20shoes]

Since my last chart in Dec 2018, there are a couple of possible wave counts that have merit at this juncture. The two that have the most merit would suggest further downside. If we assume we are in a secular bullmarket, the Grand Super Cycle Wave 4 low was the GFC low in 2008.
See this post for long term secular bull market S&P 500 Seasonal Low

Since the GFC low we are now likely to have jsut have completed an impulsive 5th wave up. The chart below shows some of the structure of the 5th wave from the GFC low (this wave structure is itself subdivded into 5 waves).

Of several possible wave scenarios, two seem to have merit:
1. You can shift the degree of labelling so that we have just now completed Super Cycle Wave 1 from the 2008 low to Feb 2020; that would be Super Cycle Wave 1 of Grand Super Cycle Wave 5. If you take this scenario, we have just completed Wave 1 up, and a Wave 2 target would be 1700 (0.618 ratio).

2. We have now completed Super Cycle Wave V of Grand Super Cycle Wave 5 which would place February's top as a higher degree Wave 1. Wave 1 encompasses more than 100 years of an impulsive wave up. We would obviously now be at the beginnings a secular bear market and the S&P would find lows near its lesser degree Wave 4 - 700s. I can't merit this at this time, but I post it as a Wave Count option.