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Ecommerce.
Fulfilment centres and large data centres.
Thats where the money will be made.
Mick
1724125961730.png
 
There have been a number of orgs coming out over the past few days suggesting that the BLS will drop the numbers of newly employed persons by up to a million.
Bllombergs
MSN News
NY Post
Just to name a few.
Given that none of these organisations have questioned the monthly figures that have been revised downwards sometimes up to three times after initial release, a cynical person might suggest this is part of a coordinated plan to give the FOMC excuses to lower interest rates.
But they would never do that would they!
Mick
 
The expected BLS admission that it had overstated employment figures by 800k came as no surprise to anyone.
What did come as a bit of a surprise, was that the BLS failed to put up its report at the advertised disclosure time of 10:00 a.m.
Fortunately for a few orgs (banks), those that rang up the BLS and asked what was going on, were given the figures over the phone, giving them somewhat of an advantage over the rest.
From Bloombergs
At least three banks managed to obtain key payroll numbers Wednesday while the rest of Wall Street was kept waiting for a half-hour by a government delay that whipsawed markets and sowed confusion on trading desks.
After the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to post its revisions to the monthly payroll figures at 10 a.m. New York time, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and BNP Paribas SA both called the department and got the number directly. So did Nomura Holdings Inc.’s economic research team, according to a person familiar with the situation.
Click to expand...
These figures are up to March, and as Zerohedge have pointed out, every month since March has been revised downwards.
So it is most likely that the exercise will be rep3eated next year as there will most likely have to be another yearly revision in a negative direction.
But the garbage BLS figures served their purpose.
It made the Biden regime look good, and will allow the Fed to ease rates right before the elction.
What , me cynical?
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
The expected BLS admission that it had overstated employment figures by 800k came as no surprise to anyone.
What did come as a bit of a surprise, was that the BLS failed to put up its report at the advertised disclosure time of 10:00 a.m.
Fortunately for a few orgs (banks), those that rang up the BLS and asked what was going on, were given the figures over the phone, giving them somewhat of an advantage over the rest.
From Bloombergs

These figures are up to March, and as Zerohedge have pointed out, every month since March has been revised downwards.
So it is most likely that the exercise will be rep3eated next year as there will most likely have to be another yearly revision in a negative direction.
But the garbage BLS figures served their purpose.
It made the Biden regime look good, and will allow the Fed to ease rates right before the elction.
What , me cynical?
Mick
Click to expand...
Suely not you being cynical, Mick
 

The US Has Been In Recession For Years...​


The US Has Been In Recession For Years... | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com


am not so sure about multiple years , but the last 12 months i strongly suspect it was .

but the back-breaker is the progressive erosion of trust in the entire government structure

any chance of some chaos quickly followed by a military coup ?
 
On episode LXIII of "In the Know," (January 10, 2025) ARK CEO/CIO, Cathie Wood, discusses the macroeconomic landscape, focusing on employment trends, inflation, productivity, and market uncertainties. She highlights the strong employment report, the mixed signals in consumer sentiment, and the implications of productivity gains on economic growth.
An interesting view on the US and global economy -

This month we’re again responding to a few requests by supplementing this episode with charts and data to help illustrate ARK’s perspective on and outlook for the global economy.​
​
As always, Cathie discusses fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation. We hope you find this monthly series useful, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Stay Healthy. Stay Innovative.​
​
0:00:00 Intro​
0:09:27 Federal Budget Deficit Or Surplus Percent of Nominal GDP​
0:11:26 GDP Response To Two Different Austerity Plans​
0:12:45 Real GDP Vs. Productivity​
0:16:03 USD Index (DXY)​
0:16:57 M2 Money Supply vs CPI Inflation​
0:18:59 Yield Curve 10-Year Treasury Yield Minus 2-Year​
0:21:04 10-Year And 2-Year Treasury Yield History​
0:22:04 10-Year And 2-Year Treasury Yield History: Early 1990s​
0:23:06 Consumer Expectations vs Current Conditions University of Michigan​
0:23:35 Expected Inflation Rates University of Michigan​
0:26:14 Unemployment Level - Permanent Job Losers​
0:27:31 US Net Income Noncorporate Divided By Corporate​
0:28:05 US Nonfin Corporate Business Interest Expense​
0:28:57 S&P Operating Earnings Per Share​
0:30:54 Bloomberg Commodity Price Index​
0:31:29 Metals/Gold Ratio vs US 10-Year Treasury Yield​
0:33:27 China 10-Year Government Bond Yield​
0:36:48 S&P 500 Price to Gold Ratio​
0:37:28 S&P 500 Price to WTI Crude Oil​
0:38:33 Bitcoin to Gold Ratio​
0:40:32 Outro​

 
Now why would the cost of leverage fall significantly?
One reason possible is that the big boys have been selling the market to the mums and dad suckers who believe the stock spruikers s of this world.
Mick
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mullokintyre said:
Now why would the cost of leverage fall significantly?
One reason possible is that the big boys have been selling the market to the mums and dad suckers who believe the stock spruikers s of this world.
Mick
View attachment 191138
Click to expand...
the COST of leverage ?

i assume they do not mean the rates charged by the lending parties ( although that may have decreased a little )

so are they saying a fair proportion of those borrowing have unwound their loans ( or at least reduced them noticeably )

if the second , one might call that a 'risk off ' signal and rather bearish

( OOPS ! my bad )
 
Last edited:
divs4ever said:
the COST of leverage ?

i assume they do not mean the rates charged by the lending parties ( although that may have decreased a little )

so are they saying a fair proportion of those borrowing have unwound their loans ( or at least reduced them noticeably )

if the second , one might call that a 'risk off ' signal and rather bullish
Click to expand...
The following from the AFR , although from 2022, is still relevant.
If liquidty dries up

1736824244007.png

1736824420090.png

The liqudty squeese of 2022 can be seen in the following chart.
1736824795269.png

the difference from 2022 is the divergence from the fed balance sheet to the 60/40 bonds/Equity ratio.
The fed has been manipulating the supply of hte dollar to push it up to force foreign entities to sell their US treasuries at a discount to face value to allow them to get US dollars to trade for oil and all the other commodities that trade in USD.
Great way to pay off debts, forcing others to sell their debt to the feds at a discount.
Mick
 
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