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Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The ruble-based MOEX Russia index declined to 3,019 on Tuesday, dropping to the nearly 3-month low, as investors awaited CBR's policy meeting on Friday, and stronger ruble put pressure on exporter shares.

Among sectors, chemicals and electric utilities were the most penalized, while construction rebounded.

As for individual stocks, QIWI (-2.7%), Rosseti (-2.5%), Moex (-1.5%), NLMK (-1.5%), and Gazprom (-1.3%) fell the most.

On the other hand, MKB (4.8%) and Ros Agro (4.6%) limited the losses.

Trades also remained attentive to Mechel, with coal prices remaining under pressure from continued breakdowns at Chinese mines.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3,030 on Wednesday, attempting to halt its bearish trend which brought the benchmark to nearly 3-month lows ahead of CBR's policy meeting on Friday.

Meanwhile, concerns continued to mount over decreasing prices for the country's key revenue sources, oil and gas.

Among sectors, construction and transport recorded the largest gains, while financials and telecommunications slipped.

As for individual stocks, VK (3.5%), Positive Group (2.4%), Unipro (2.1%), NLMK (1.9%), and NorNickel (1.3%) advanced the most.

The former benefited from the news about the possible expansion of its subsidiary Uchi.ru. Conversely, TCS Group (-1.3%) and Alrosa (-1%) dropped.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index dropped to 3,008 on Thursday, erasing the morning gains, as investors took caution ahead of CBR's meeting tomorrow.

IT, constructions, and oil & gas sectors logged the largest losses, while slight relief came from transport and financials.

Among individual stocks, Yandex (-2.7%), Rosneft (-2.6%), Ozon Holdings (-2.3%), and Lukoil (-2.3%) dropped the most.

The former prolonged the downturn momentum because of disputes among investors around one of the key elements of company's reorganization — the exchange of shares of its parent Dutch holding Yandex N.V. for the securities of a new company that will receive almost all of Yandex's Russian business.

In contrast, Moex and Magnit advanced, up by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3033 on Friday, paring the morning declines, as investors weighed the CBR's decision and the officials' comments.

The regulator has raised its key interest rate for the fifth month to 16% amid high inflationary pressures.

Still, the 100 bps hike was in line with expectations, and policymakers adopted a neutral tone towards the future path.

Meanwhile, the head of CBR, Nabulina, even signaled the potential end of rate hikes, prompting markets to bet on start of monetary easing in spring 2024.

On the corporate front, Ros Agro (6.8%) and Unipro (6%) were top performers. Also, financials, Sberbank (4.3%), and VTB (3.5%) posted strong gains.

On the other hand, Lukoil was the main drag, down by 4.3% due to the dividends gap.

Weekly, the index fell by 1.5%


MOEX Annual Chart

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MOEX Daily Chart

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose by 1.4% to 3076 on Monday, extending its gains for the second session, as investors bet on the end of rate hikes by the Russian central bank after its head Nabulina delivered dovish remarks.

The market expect regulator to keep its key rate at 16% until the second half of 2024 and then cut it twice by the end of the year.

Among today's leaders of growth were Seligdar (5%), GLTR (4.7%), QIWI (3.7%), Moex (3%), Lukoil (2.7%), and Tatneft (1.9%).

Also, Novabev closed in green, having announced the interim dividends in the amount of 135 rubles per ordinary share for 9 months of 2023.

On the side of losses, Rusal dropped by 0.6%.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index edged higher to 3083 on Tuesday, up for the third session, benefiting from bets on the end of monetary hikes by the central bank and a rebound in oil prices.

QIWI was the top performer, jumping by 30%. Also, metallurgists and gas & oil companies posted strong gains, led by NLMK (3.5%), Novatek (2.2%), Severstal (2.1%) and Polus (2%).

NLMK grew thanks to the extension of the EU quota for slab imports until the end of 2028.

In contrast, losses came from MKB (-3.2%), PIK (-2.3%), Aeroflot (-2%), Etalon (-1%), and Samolet (-1%).

The developers PIK, Samolet, and Etalon dropped after the Russian government changed the conditions for issuing loans under the mortgage program with state support.

The down payment on preferential mortgages has been increased to 30% from 20%, and the maximum amount of a preferential loan became 6 million rubles for all regions.

In other news, Gazprom presented ambitious goal plan for the next year.


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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3104 on Wednesday, advancing for the fourth session, as investors continued to bet on the end of monetary tightening by the central bank.

Electric utilities, metals & mining and consumer goods sectors recorded the largest gins.

Among individual stocks, Seligdar (4%), Magnit (3.2%), AFK (2.7%), Surgut (2.2%), and Severstal (2.2%) were the most bullish.

Meanwhile, losses were logged by MTS (-1.1%) and Gazprom (-0.8%). Gazprom's Deputy Chairman of Board, Famil Sadigov, projected during the meeting yesterday that the company's EBITDA would reach 2.2 trillion rubles in 2023.

According to him, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio by the end of the year would be 2.3x, which is significantly lower than 2.5x, the minimum threshold for the current dividend policy (at least 50% of net profit).

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index dropped to 3073 on Thursday, halting its four-day rally, as investors took pause ahead of holidays.

IT, financials, and telecomunications sectors recorded the largest declines.

Among individual stocks, Moex (-3.4%), Novatek (-3%), Surgut (-2.6%), and Aeroflot (-2.4%) were the most bearish.

Novatek shares took a hit after the company sent force majeure notice to some buyers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the upcoming Arctic LNG-2 project since sanctions imposed by the United States threatened the start of deliveries.

Conversely, Polymetal (6.4%), Seligdar (1.9%), and Rosseti (1.4%) advanced, with the former benefitting from the gold's upward momentum.


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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3092 on Friday, paring the yesterday's losses, boosted by gains in the financial sector.

MKB (2.8%), Mechel (2.5%), and Sberbank (2.1%) were the leaders of growth.

Sberbank shares advanced after the head of the company Herman Gref released statement about the dynamics of net profit and dividend prospects of the company.

He said that this year, they had received 1 trillion 380 billion rubles of net profit in 11 months, an absolute record for the entire existence of the bank.

For 2024, the official also projected strong performance.

Meanwhile, VTB closed flat despite publishing positive IFRS financial results for January-November period.

On the political arena, US President Joe Biden signed an executive order making it possible to impose sanctions against financial structures associated with large supplies to the Russian military-industrial complex (MIC), Interfax reported.

Weekly, the index grew by 1.9%.


MOEX 12 Month Chart
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MOEX Daily Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3097 on Wednesday, paring yesterday's losses, driven by gains in transport, IT, and electric utilities sectors.

On the macroeconomic front, industrial production, business confidence and unemployment data were revealed after the closing bell.

Among individual stocks, Sovcomflot (6.5%), Yandex (3.7%), and GLTR (3.1%) gained the most.

Sovcomflot grew on expectations of dividends and higher freight rates.

Meanwhile, Yandex increased after news broke out that Yandex International Joint-Stock Company was included in the register of participants of the Special Administrative Region (SAR) in Kaliningrad.

In contrast, Polymetal (-3.4%), QIWI (-3.2%), Samolet (-2.8%), Segezha (-2.7%), and PIK (-1,5%) decreased.

Segezha has suffered a downgrade in its credit rating from RA due to high debt burden and lower EBITDA.

Simultaneously, Samolet and PIK declined after the CBR pledged to raise premiums to risk ratios on mortgage loans from January 2024.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed above flatline at 3102 on Thursday, showing mixed dynamics over the week, as trade thinned out ahead of New Year Eve's holidays.

On the macroeconomic front, traders digested weekly inflation figures which pointed to acceleration in price growth and labour data which indicated a historic low unemployment rate for the second month.

The most penalized sectors of the session were transport and chemicals, while IT and construction limited the decline.

Among individual stocks, Ozon (4.1%), X5 RetailGroup (2%), and Severstal (1.7%) increased the most.

Conversely, QIWI (-3.2%), Segezha (-1.8%), Rostelecom (-1.4%), and Sovcomflot (-1.3%) dropped.

Also, Tatneft closed in red after three days of gains.

The company's shareholders approved dividends in the amount of RUB 35.17 for 9 months of 2023. The dividend yield is about 5% for each type of stock.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index dropped to 3097 on the last trading day of 2023, having shown little movement over the week, as investors refrained from making big decisions ahead of holidays.

On the macroeconomic front, the December S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.6, the highest in seven years.

Among sectors, transport, electric utilities and metals & mining recorded losses, while IT and consumer goods advanced firmly.

As for individual stocks, Ros Agro (-1.2%), Rostelecom (-1%), VK (-0.6%) and Severstal (-0.5%) declined the most.

On the other hand, QIWI (5.4%), X5 RetailGroup (3.5%), Mechel (2.3%), PIK (1.7%), and Novatek (1.5%) increased.

Also, developer Samolet benefited from news of the launch of a share buyback program.

Over the year, the index grew by nearly 44%, nullifying the fall in 2022, helped by renewed dividends payments, disclosure of companies' financial results, and bypassing of Western sanctions.

MOEX 12 Month Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index dropped to 3097 on the last trading day of 2023, having shown little movement over the week, as investors refrained from making big decisions ahead of holidays.

On the macroeconomic front, the December S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.6, the highest in seven years.

Among sectors, transport, electric utilities and metals & mining recorded losses, while IT and consumer goods advanced firmly.

As for individual stocks, Ros Agro (-1.2%), Rostelecom (-1%), VK (-0.6%) and Severstal (-0.5%) declined the most. On the other hand, QIWI (5.4%), X5 RetailGroup (3.5%), Mechel (2.3%), PIK (1.7%), and Novatek (1.5%) increased.

Also, developer Samolet benefited from news of the launch of a share buyback program. Over the year, the index grew by nearly 44%, nullifying the fall in 2022, helped by renewed dividends payments, disclosure of companies' financial results, and bypassing of Western sanctions.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3130 at the start of 2023, its highest level in a month, driven by gains in transport and consumer goods sectors. Also, electric utilities advanced firmly.

Among individual stocks, Mechel (4.3%), Ros Agro (4.1%), Seligdar (3.5%), and GLTR (3.1%) were the top performers.

Also, Alrosa closed in green despite being added to the sanctions list of EU council.

Overall, trade remained reduced due to holiday season, but the positive background was created by weakening of ruble.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index edged up to 3134 on Thursday, advancing for the second session this year and hovering near 1-month highs, supported by a rebound in oil prices as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stoked fears of wider supply disruptions.

On the corporate front, the leaders of growth were VK (2.4%), Magnit (1.4%), NLMK (1.1%), and Rus Gidro (1.1%).

On the other hand, declines came from PIK (-0.9%), Moex (-0.6%), Yandex (-0.5%), and Rosneft (-0.5%).

Overall, trade remained reduced due to holiday season.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index was little changed at 3136 on Friday, following two days of advances, weighed by strengthening in ruble and a retreat in oil prices.

On the corporate front, the leaders of growth were Aeroflot (3.5%), VTB (3.2%), TMK (2.1%) and Severstal (1.2%).

On the other hand, Sovcomflot (-3.3%), Seligdar (-1.6%), and M.Video (-1.6%) declined.

The former has cleared of dividends today.

Shareholders included in the register were be paid 6.32 rubles per share, which implies a dividend yield of about 4.2%.

Although trade volumes remained thin ahead of Christmas holidays, the index rose by 1.2% over the week.

MOEX 12 MONTH CHART

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MOEX DAILY CHART

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3158 on Monday, after showing little change in the previous session, helped by increased trading volumes as investors returned from holidays.

Among sectors, financials and construction were driving the gains.

Also, electric utilities advanced firmly amid cooler temperatures in the country.

As for individual stocks, PIK (4%), VTB (2.6%), and Surgut (2.1%) grew the most.

Conversely, Mechel (-0.5%), Magnit (-0.5%) and Alrosa (-0.4% closed in the red, with miners being affected by lower commodity prices.

Also, Tatneft edged down due to clearance of dividends.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index ended muted at 3155 on Tuesday, erasing yesterday's gains but paring some of earlier declines thanks to the pull from the IT sector.

Tatneft was the main underperformer, plunging by 4.8% due to clearance of dividends.

Also, Severstal, X5 Retail Group, and MMK declined by 2.2%, 2%, and 1.5%, respectively.

On the other hand, VK (5.3%), Seligdar (3.8%), Segezha (2.7%), and Lukoil (2.1%) advanced.

The former might have benefited from RBC's article about VK's leading status as a social media in Russia.

Also, coal miners, Mechel and Raspadskaya, closed in green after the country's government has exempted coal from exchange rate export duties.

The abolition of the duty could increase the profit of Mechel and Raspadskaya by 6% and 12%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Samolet rose by 0.4%, having taken the first place in rating of Russian developers in 2023.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3164 on Wednesday, following the muted tone in the previous session, driven by wins in the telecommunications, IT and electric utilities sectors.

Among individual stocks, GLTR (2.4%), Ozon (2.4%), Seligdar (2.5%), Tatneft (1.5%), and Novatek (1.4%) were the leaders of growth.

Globaltrans shares have increased in anticipation of the completion of the re-domiciliation process and a return to dividend payments, while Seligdar gained from higher gold prices.

As for heavyweights, Lukoil shares advanced by modest 0.6% after closing the dividend gap yesterday, and Gazprom edged up by 0.4%.

On the negative side, Mechel (-2.1%), Ros Agro (-1.4%), QIWI (-1.2%), and VTB (-0.8%) declined.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index rose to 3180 on Thursday after trading muted in the morning, driven by strong growth in metals & mining sector.

Among individual stocks, Severstal (6.6%), NLMK (6.1%), and MMK (6%) were the top performers.

Severstal increased on company's CEO's statement about the possible dividend payments.

Meanwhile, NLMK reported positive financial results for the first nine months of 2023.

On the other hand, Rosneft and Magnit declined, down by 3.5% and 3.2% due to dividends gap.

Also, stronger ruble added pressure on exporters shares after the country's finance ministry said it would switch to foreign currency sales from purchases in the coming weeks since December oil and gas revenues were lower than anticipated.
 
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