Rudd and the stockmarket

[The Mint Man]

And I think it's important you put the figures alongside these statements:

I listed the rates from 1990-07 surely thats figures?
On the party with a bad track record, the fact that the unions stuff up just as many jobs as they save (been there done that!) is one example... Oh but thats the unions I hear you say. Yes but the Australian Union Party, I mean Labor party supports them thick and thin.
Here is an observation that I found quite interesting from Terry McCrann's 'In The Know' article which is in The Sunday Telegraph.

That reality is the biggest problem Kevin Rudd faces in his assult on the howard government's IR System.
Its hard to make the case that the system is bad when there are more people in better-paid jobs than ever before.
And here's a sobering thought: it's heavily unionised, government-type jobs such as in hostpitals and education, with collective bargaining, where workers feel exploited - not in the dreaded individual workplace agreements area.

This thread easily gets off track, hehe So On the original question, 'Rudd and the stockmarket',
How did Patrick do when the Labor backed unions almost took them down? also, was it good for the economy? which we all have to worry about, even if you dont give a rats about the stockmarket.

Cheers

EDIT; Chops, that last part was not a question to you, it's a general question to everyone on the forum. You dont have to answer and I dont expect you to (unlike yourself) plus you already admitted that your (and I quote) "just a retarded no nothing pinko that lives under your bed"

 

[chops_a_must]

I wont answer your questions until you answer mine.

 

[Julia]

julia, tech/a and the mint man,

with respect

that's the beauty of voting in aust, it is literally a tick-the-box exercise with no justification required

gotta love those polls

have noticed how these political threads are getting more and more chicken little, the more the majority appears to be indicating a complete and utter demolition of the current govt is inevitable

imaginary nightmares of a leftist, socialist, commie pinko, economy wrecking, job destroying, wealth eliminating labour party just ain't cutting it with a sophisiticated[?] electorate

howard's scare campaigns have thusfar failed miserably

again gotta love those polls

and whilst it is still early days

you all appear to be well and truly in the minority

i hear a change a comin'

and mint man i noticed you did not include the interest rate from when howard was treasurer in the early days [see chops supra]

cheers

disclaimer: recognition that it is early days and power hungry megalomaniacs never give up without a dirty fight

May I just ask you to answer the same question as I asked Nioka in Post 46 above?

I'm not looking for an argument. If anyone can tell me of genuine advantages they believe a Labor government will offer the country as a whole and me as an individual I'm very interested. I am by no means in favour of every decision the present government has made, but see it as the better alternative from all the facts I have available at the moment.

What concerns me is that I'm getting the sense that simply because the present government has been in power for so long, there is a mood out there for change on just this basis. An acquaintance said recently that she would vote for Kevin Rudd. I asked her why. Her answer: because she'd watched him on "Sunrise" and liked his sense of humour!!!!!!
The response to the Budget was positive overall - my impression was that it was more generally positive than any Budget in the last decade. And yes I know that economic performance is not everything, but without it there's reduced scope for everything else.

I don't know whether anyone knows this, but I'm curious about when polls are conducted. Is it during the daytime when most business people are not at home answering their phones? Even if they ring in the early evening, a lot of this category of potential respondents would not be home from work.
I'm wondering how representative the actual respondent base is. The only times I've ever been phoned to participate it was at 10am and around 3pm.

So, if we could have from the Labor supporters a list of reasons why they believe we will all be better off, that would be really helpful.

Thanks.

 

[greggy]

May I just ask you to answer the same question as I asked Nioka in Post 46 above?

I'm not looking for an argument. If anyone can tell me of genuine advantages they believe a Labor government will offer the country as a whole and me as an individual I'm very interested. I am by no means in favour of every decision the present government has made, but see it as the better alternative from all the facts I have available at the moment.

What concerns me is that I'm getting the sense that simply because the present government has been in power for so long, there is a mood out there for change on just this basis. An acquaintance said recently that she would vote for Kevin Rudd. I asked her why. Her answer: because she'd watched him on "Sunrise" and liked his sense of humour!!!!!!
The response to the Budget was positive overall - my impression was that it was more generally positive than any Budget in the last decade. And yes I know that economic performance is not everything, but without it there's reduced scope for everything else.

I don't know whether anyone knows this, but I'm curious about when polls are conducted. Is it during the daytime when most business people are not at home answering their phones? Even if they ring in the early evening, a lot of this category of potential respondents would not be home from work.
I'm wondering how representative the actual respondent base is. The only times I've ever been phoned to participate it was at 10am and around 3pm.

So, if we could have from the Labor supporters a list of reasons why they believe we will all be better off, that would be really helpful.

Thanks.

Hi Julia,

I often agree with most of what you say and on this occasion you've made several fine points. However, whilst this government has performed well on an economic basis, I feel that its somewhat tired and bereft of new ideas. Also, whilst interest rates continue to be low, the last 4 rate increases have had an effect on an electorate that is becoming sceptical of this government. IR laws have also played their part. I know some people working for Spotlight who were forced to give up their penalty rates for a paltry 2% increase. Yes, Mr Rudd's IR vision still needs fixing, but a number of scrupulous have taken advantage of the new IR laws. Howard's system works well for good employers who reward hard working staff, but some low income earners need greater protection. There's also the issue of Iraq. With many in the US questioning their own involvement Mr Howard is still sticking with Mr Bush. More effort needs to go into Afghanistan.
There needs to be greater amounts spent on education as its the key to a more productive Australia. Its low by world standards. More needs to be done on climate change. Until recently, the Howard Government was denying that this was a looming problem.
At the end of the day, it comes down for me whether Mr Rudd's team can be trusted to take charge of the country's finances and won't be holden to left-wing groups. More info is needed but Mr Rudd has the potential to be a good PM. The sharemarket doesn't seem that worried about the likely prospect of a Labor win. I'm still sitting on the fence.

 

[tech/a]

I feel that its somewhat tired and bereft of new ideas

So both Julia and I have been looking for a list of these new ideas.
Reasons to vote for this new "Labor" government.

As for IR laws.
Amazing how everyones as happy as hell to get a few bucks in the pocket but whinge like blazes when more and more companies are being forced off shore to compete.
Think labor over seas is being taken for a ride---low pay etc---Think again for the first time these labour forces are being paid in a month what most have been paid in a year.

Cant have it both ways.

Exactly what is labors platform??

 

[Broadside]

I agree the government has been a pair of safe hands in boom times, and they rightly point to their zero debt and annual surpluses...all good stuff. But while government debt is zero, private sector debt is at record - and frightening - levels and I don't see any national savings plan from either party that addresses this. People are borrowing to the hilt on their inflated house values to buy plasmas and 4WDs and that is well and good, it is individual choice, but on a macro scale it is a potential recipe for disaster. We run massive current account deficits and the scary thing is, this is as good as it gets for our terms of trade. Gawd help us should they deteriorate or global interest rates kick up.

Neither party has shown any real vision on the R&D and education front, although the university plan offered by Costello is a start I guess. When all the mineral wealth has been sold off from under us to fund our short term consumer bingeing, what have we got in terms of competitive advantage? We must invest in science to develop intellectual property, the mining boom may last 10 more years but what then? we need some vision and neither party is offering it.

Infrastructure...where is a coherent broadband plan from the Coalition? I suspect they are doing a deal right now with Telstra to be unveiled during the election campaign, let's hope it is not a second rate, bandaid compromise, as I see Rudd's strategy to be. But even Rudd strategy is better than nothing, which is what the Coalition has offered thus far. They are complete Luddites in terms of technology and seem to have no understanding of the changing world.

As for global warming, well, Howard is now brought kicking and screaming into acceptance when he sees it is a hot topic. Talk about cynical.

So....I will stick with the tired old Howard government, in the hope that Costello will kick him out after the election and get some vision and energy happening again. Someone who sees the big picture. I suspect if Costello gets his chance he may pleasantly surprise a few people.

 

[nioka]

Nioka,

Could you outline exactly (a) what you feel would be the advantages to us of a Rudd led government, and (b) what you feel are the current disadvantages of the present government, in general, and as it affects you personally.

1. Honesty.
2. A swing away from being subserviant to George B
3. Capability or Rudd having a better relationship with China.
4. A fair go for those who sweat and toil and those who have sweated and toiled in the past, to make this a great country.
5. A new broom. The old one is tired and worn.
I doubt if I will be affected either way. I may die with a little more or a little less. I have seen a lot of life, good times and bad ones, but I have never seen it as hard on family life as general working conditions are at present.
We can't all sit around making money. Someone out there has to do some real work. They too deserve a reasonable standard of living.

 

[nioka]

Costello will kick him out after the election and get some vision and energy happening again. Someone who sees the big picture. I suspect if Costello gets his chance he may pleasantly surprise a few people.

Is that a core promise or a non core promise ? I don't trust him.

 

[Broadside]

wasn't Honest John the inventor of the core promise? Never was there a more cynical politician than he. I believe Costello has some integrity but it is not always easy to show as Treasurer. His brother Tim certainly has a social conscience, I can't see the 2 brothers being that fundamentally different at heart.

As for the initial topic, Rudd and the sharemarket....I think Rudd will be fairly conservative and there won't be much change to the status quo, it will be global economic factors that control our fate in terms of the ASX.

 

[nioka]

wasn't Honest John the inventor of the core promise? Never was there a more cynical politician than he. I believe Costello has some integrity but it is not always easy to show as Treasurer. His brother Tim certainly has a social conscience, I can't see the 2 brothers being that fundamentally different at heart.

I can remember Costello quoting noncore promises. I know of quite a few cases where one brother is a rogue and another a genuine honest person. A couple of jail bird local cases come to mind.

 

[greggy]

So both Julia and I have been looking for a list of these new ideas.
Reasons to vote for this new "Labor" government.

As for IR laws.
Amazing how everyones as happy as hell to get a few bucks in the pocket but whinge like blazes when more and more companies are being forced off shore to compete.
Think labor over seas is being taken for a ride---low pay etc---Think again for the first time these labour forces are being paid in a month what most have been paid in a year.

Cant have it both ways.

Exactly what is labors platform??

Hi tech/a,

Surely there's some room here for some middle ground. I'm surprised by the number of people who are so strong one way or the other (that's their choice) yet a centre position gets knocked by both quarters. Also, please try not to use bold when asking questions as it can be seen as shouting (please don't take this the wrong way). I still think overseas factors will largely determine where the sharemarket goes from here (the resource boom, Wall Street, China).

Cheers,

Greggy

 

[CanOz]

Someone out there has to do some real work. They too deserve a reasonable standard of living.

Just what exactly do you think these people have been getting paid lately? Labour in Australia is among the highest paid in the world....not to mention the safest working conditions....ahhhh! Its hard to hire a supervisor on salary because once the OT hits they're on less than thier workers are!

I think the gov't should just pay everyone to stay home and watch TV....but then everyone would still figure out a way to put in a work care claim for that too!

20 years from now there will be no manufacturing left in Australia, no farms left...and the mines will be closing down.

Where's the plan for all of these issues?

Cheers,

 

[waza1960]

The Best thing about Howard in my opinion is that he makes decisions that he believes are right for the country and sticks to them, doesn't change them just for electoral gain (except when election is near lol)and I believe Costello would be just as capable.Why take the risk on labour when the economy is in such good shape ?Let Labour have a go when the economy dips as it will.I can't come up with any pluses for labour being elected.

 

[Rafa]

Peter Laylor, generally a fervent Howard supporter has this to say in the Australian...

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com...alian/comments/work_choices_recipe_for_abuse/

Work Choices: Recipe for abuse
Friday, May 18, 2007
Peter Lalor

WORK Choices is the policy that dare not speak its name.

It is so maligned and malodorous the government that invented it no longer uses the phrase in advertising or polite society.

Like Basil Fawlty the Coalition is so determined not to mention the war that it’s become a bumbling gag.

There’s a degree of irony that a phrase as Orwellian as Work Choices should become so unutterable.

The attitude of the Australian people reminds me of that old Devo couplet: freedom of choice is what you got/freedom from choice is what you want.

The electorate seems to be singing from the same songbook on this one, ignoring the discordant sounds coming from those kind hearted baritones in the mining and airline industry.

The truth is that you don’t have to travel far in these robust economic times to find somebody who has been compromised in the new industrial relations climate.

The government’s own figures show that 27.8 per cent of Work Choices contracts are probably illegal in that they go even further than the legislation allows in removing rights and entitlements.

Some 45 per cent strip away award conditions the government promised would be protected.

Other analysis shows that 100 per cent of contracts remove at least one standard award condition.

Admittedly most agreements paid more than the minimum rate, but the analysis does not show if it is a fair compensation for the loss of things like public holidays, leave loading, shift penalties and so on and so on.

Over three quarters of Work Choice agreement strip away shift penalties, 59 per cent do away with leave loading and before you start to talk about bonuses and compensation, the government’s figures show that 70 per cent of contracts remove bonuses and incentive payments.

Imagine what will happen when the economy goes bad.

People who choose AWAs and are happy with them are not the issue here; like the law, the real concern are the innocent who are being ill-treated by them.

I’ll tell you some of my experiences with AWAs and Work Choices.

At the end of my street 30 senior migrant factory workers are killing time in a factory that used to employ over a 1000 people.

The rest of the staff got laid off and paid out at the rate they negotiated with bosses under the award.

At the moment the 30 remaining staff are entitled to sensible and agreed rewards for their many years service should they be laid off. Come February that protection dissolves and they will lose millions in entitlements.

This situation was made possible by the early Howard government changes to the workplace legislation and long before Work Choices further eroded the protections held sacred by most workers.

The situation is a screaming embarrassment for the Coalition going into an election. They amended the act last year to allow these factory workers an extra 12 months grace before losing the entitlements.

I know that Joe Hockey personally calls the workers telling them he is doing his best, but he knows that Coalition legislation has created this situation and can’t force the bosses to act fairly.

Prime Minister John Howard argues you can’t legislate against companies behaving like this, but the point is his legislation allowed them to do it.

Last year I was talking to an office manager who had spent the past 10 years encouraging workers to sign contracts and he spent much of his time telling them what a good deal they were.

That night he told me he had never and would never sign one.

Another manager I know had signed one but secretly advised his staff against it. He had never had a pay rise since signing nine years ago and he had watched members of his staff on the award pass him on the pay scale as the years went on.

I also know many people who have signed AWAs because they didn’t think they would get the job unless they did. They weren’t told as much because that’s illegal, but it only takes a nod and a wink to get around that law.

 

[nioka]

Just what exactly do you think these people have been getting paid lately? Labour in Australia is among the highest paid in the world....not to mention the safest working conditions....ahhhh! Its hard to hire a supervisor on salary because once the OT hits they're on less than thier workers are!

I think the gov't should just pay everyone to stay home and watch TV....but then everyone would still figure out a way to put in a work care claim for that too!

20 years from now there will be no manufacturing left in Australia, no farms left...and the mines will be closing down.

Where's the plan for all of these issues?

Cheers,

If you are right why does it take 2 wage earners working long hours to have sufficient income to enjoy the standard of life that you no doubt enjoy. Remember it was the industry protection under the mensies era that helped make this country great. We run the risk of that being lost if the "economic rationalists" like Costello rely on the mining boom to be Australia's only industry.

 

[mark70920]

PAUL KEATING: First of all you take him on. Howard had the highest interest rates in Australian history - 21% bank rates in 1982. What did he leave? He gave us a huge recession and 11% inflation. We had interest rates peaking at 18 per cent but we came out of it with 1 per cent inflation.

Howard got the benefit of the hard decision taken in the Hawke and Keating era, things that were very unpopular at the time but serve us well now.

Howard is a populist politician with little future vision, I hope Rudd can do a better job future proofing Australia.

PS: Will not affect the market much either way

 

[wayneL]

Peter Laylor, generally a fervent Howard supporter has this to say in the Australian...

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com...alian/comments/work_choices_recipe_for_abuse/

Up here in commodityboomsville (Geraldton WA) wage earners are whingeing bitterly about Work noChoices... it's even on the front page of the local rag.

When I was running a furniture factory it would have been a dream come true (However like Tech/A, we paid handsomely to aquire and keep good people... well above award), but I was to the right of Ghengis Khan then.

These days I socialize with people affected by this and on balance, I don't think it is a good thing. There is absolutely no scope for negotiation on AWA's, it's "here's our mean spirited and particularly onerous employment contract, if you accept it we'll pay you the pittance it says, if not, &^$% OFF.

I observe it is actually counterproductive. The businesses that go this route have employees who are inefficient, because they are unhappy and feel oppressed. The business suffers as a result.

On the other hand, we used to have a very moderate union in the furniture trade. It worked very well and we actually supported the union. But for financial reasons they had to amalgamate with the BWIU and that's when it all turned to sh!te. Typical militant union nonsense. That causes business (and ultimately employees) to suffer.

Somewhere in the middle is a happy medium and neither side seem to have a good formula IMO.

 

[CanOz]

When I was running a furniture factory .

Just curious Wayne....what happened to the furniture factory?

 

[wayneL]

Just curious Wayne....what happened to the furniture factory?

Sold it. It continued for a few years afterwards but seems to have now disappeared. Tough business nowadays.

 

[Smurf1976]

Me three!
I cant possibly see how you could vote in someone with no track record... or should I say a Party with a bad track record. Not to mention most of his make up is a lot of sunrise spin, I have heared people say they like him just because he 'seems like a nice guy', because he was on sunrise.
Heres one good reason not to vote labor in.... I must warn, this may bring back painful memories to older ASF members
Monetary Policy Changes:
23-Jan-1990 17.50
15-Feb-1990 17.00
4-Apr-1990 15.50
2-Aug-1990 14.00
15-Oct-1990 13.00
18-Dec-1990 12.00
4-Apr-1991 11.50
16-May-1991 10.50
3-Sep-1991 9.50
6-Nov-1991 8.50
8-Jan-1992 7.50
6-May-1992 6.50
8-Jul-1992 5.75
23-Mar-1993 5.25
30-Jul-1993 4.75
17-Aug-1994 5.50
24-Oct-1994 6.50
14-Dec-1994 7.50
31-Jul-1996 7.00
6-Nov-1996 6.50
11-Dec-1996 6.00
23-May-1997 5.50
30-Jul-1997 5.00
2-Dec-1998 4.75
3-Nov-1999 5.00
2-Feb-2000 5.50
5-Apr-2000 5.75
3-May-2000 6.00
2-Aug-2000 6.25
7-Feb-2001 5.75
7-Mar-2001 5.50
4-Apr-2001 5.00
5-Sep-2001 4.75
3-Oct-2001 4.50
5-Dec-2001 4.25
8-May-2002 4.50
5-Jun-2002 4.75
5-Nov-2003 5.00
3-Dec-2003 5.25
2-Mar-2005 5.50
3-May-2006 5.75
2-Aug-2006 6.00
8-Nov-2006 6.25

While labor was in they only managed to get below 5% once, at 4.75% after which it jumped to straight back to 5.5% (0.75% in one hit, if that happened these days there would be murder!), with a high of 17.5% not to mention the above only goes back to 1990.

Of course it only goes back to 1990. It wouldn't support your argument if it included the highest interest rates ever under John Howard as Treasurer.

Not that interest rates have much to do with which party is running Australia since neither of them have proposed taking over the US Federal Reserve. Until such an event happens, which seems highly unlikely to ever occur, interest rates aren't in the hands of Australian politicians.