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I stand corrected on time-frames. What follows is a post on another bb by someone I can vouch for, "mingle3" on the advfn board. Some time back he made contact with a geologist employed to study seismic in various east african locations. This is their most recent correspondence with an explanation to begin.
Most of you longtermers will remember about a year ago I had correspondence with the gentleman that carried out the World Bank coordinated study in 1991 which was intended to encourage private investment in the petroleum potential of eight African nations where Somalia and the Sudan topped the list of potential commercial oil producers! His name is Thomas O'connor......
To refresh your memory you can see the email/post here:
http://rangeresources.narutorpg.org/t7-oil-in-puntland-mr-right
Today I decided to follow him up and ask him a few questions on whether he thinks it would be possible to drill both exploration wells as set out in yesterdays RNS before the expiry dates. His response was very informative and helpful............Here it is!
Dear Thomas
I hope you are keeping well and enjoying life.
Do you remember I emailed you a while back regarding oil in Puntland and the complications drilling in such an area could prove to be due to the Geology??
Our Operator Africa Oil have stated that they will drill two exploration wells this year, One must spud before the 27th of July, the second must spud before the 27th of September. Looking at the dates do you think it would be possible to drill the first well and then relocate the rig to spud the second well before the dates set out. How long does it take to drill a exploration well in this kind of Geology? Looking over recent drills in similar ares it takes 5-6months minimum and usually some difficulty occurs due to high gas pressures. What is your View? The basins where we will be drilling are Dahroor and Nugal.
I hope you can offer any information and many thanks for taking the time,
Kind Regards
xxxxx
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Yes, good morning xxxxxxx:
I too saw the note regarding Africa Oil's drilling plans in yesterday's trade press and had the same thoughts as you have had. On reflection however, my thinking has changed somewhat.
As you recall, Africa Oil had planned to drill its first well, at Dahour, I think, last summer. I have not heard anything direct from Africa Oil since I met with them last Easter, so the remainder of what I have to say is speculation.
Firstly, there appears to have been an issue with commencing the well last year; this could either be a case of rig non-availability, in which the rig had to be used elsewhere first, or something to do with political risk and/or security. Either case is equally possible.
Secondly, in the type of area in which Africa Oil is operating, these things are fairly common and work obligations are often renegotiated with the Government. This appears to be the case here, in which, in return for extending the "Drill before" date for the first well, AO has agreed to drill the second well immediately thereafter, without releasing the rig, evaluating the results of the first well and making fine tuning adjustments to the second well location. Since the two wells are in what are thought to be two different basins, this is a reasonable compromise.
I have briefly seen the seismic from the first location, but not the second; as I recall neither well were programmed to go too deep; something on the order of 9,000 feet comes to mind. This is not a great depth, does not require a large, heavy duty rig and depending on the rocks encountered, 60 days should be sufficient to drill, evaluate, cap/plug the well and move the rig to the second location.
Unless there are major and unanticipated problems with the drilling, I don't see where either well should take longer than 30-45 days from spud to completion. The information which you have referred to, seems to me to be inappropriate. Having said that however, very little is known of the subsurface in Puntland and analogies made from elsewhere such as southern Sudan or Yemen ............(continued next post)
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Most of you longtermers will remember about a year ago I had correspondence with the gentleman that carried out the World Bank coordinated study in 1991 which was intended to encourage private investment in the petroleum potential of eight African nations where Somalia and the Sudan topped the list of potential commercial oil producers! His name is Thomas O'connor......
To refresh your memory you can see the email/post here:
http://rangeresources.narutorpg.org/t7-oil-in-puntland-mr-right
Today I decided to follow him up and ask him a few questions on whether he thinks it would be possible to drill both exploration wells as set out in yesterdays RNS before the expiry dates. His response was very informative and helpful............Here it is!
Dear Thomas
I hope you are keeping well and enjoying life.
Do you remember I emailed you a while back regarding oil in Puntland and the complications drilling in such an area could prove to be due to the Geology??
Our Operator Africa Oil have stated that they will drill two exploration wells this year, One must spud before the 27th of July, the second must spud before the 27th of September. Looking at the dates do you think it would be possible to drill the first well and then relocate the rig to spud the second well before the dates set out. How long does it take to drill a exploration well in this kind of Geology? Looking over recent drills in similar ares it takes 5-6months minimum and usually some difficulty occurs due to high gas pressures. What is your View? The basins where we will be drilling are Dahroor and Nugal.
I hope you can offer any information and many thanks for taking the time,
Kind Regards
xxxxx
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, good morning xxxxxxx:
I too saw the note regarding Africa Oil's drilling plans in yesterday's trade press and had the same thoughts as you have had. On reflection however, my thinking has changed somewhat.
As you recall, Africa Oil had planned to drill its first well, at Dahour, I think, last summer. I have not heard anything direct from Africa Oil since I met with them last Easter, so the remainder of what I have to say is speculation.
Firstly, there appears to have been an issue with commencing the well last year; this could either be a case of rig non-availability, in which the rig had to be used elsewhere first, or something to do with political risk and/or security. Either case is equally possible.
Secondly, in the type of area in which Africa Oil is operating, these things are fairly common and work obligations are often renegotiated with the Government. This appears to be the case here, in which, in return for extending the "Drill before" date for the first well, AO has agreed to drill the second well immediately thereafter, without releasing the rig, evaluating the results of the first well and making fine tuning adjustments to the second well location. Since the two wells are in what are thought to be two different basins, this is a reasonable compromise.
I have briefly seen the seismic from the first location, but not the second; as I recall neither well were programmed to go too deep; something on the order of 9,000 feet comes to mind. This is not a great depth, does not require a large, heavy duty rig and depending on the rocks encountered, 60 days should be sufficient to drill, evaluate, cap/plug the well and move the rig to the second location.
Unless there are major and unanticipated problems with the drilling, I don't see where either well should take longer than 30-45 days from spud to completion. The information which you have referred to, seems to me to be inappropriate. Having said that however, very little is known of the subsurface in Puntland and analogies made from elsewhere such as southern Sudan or Yemen ............(continued next post)
