Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

RRL - Regis Resources

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This reflection has caused me to change my mind about adding any more RRL. I won't be selling, it's been good divIdend payer and earned a mostly consistently good ROE. It's a mystery to me why it has been such a poor s.p performer. The comments here prompted me to do a price comparison chart for the first time against its 'peers' and the relative performance is quite shocking to me over any yearly multiple from one through to five years. I've chosen the 2 year chart to post but they all tell pretty much the same story. The comparative peer companies being: Ramelius, Northern Star, Evolution and Silverlake.

2 Yr Daily RRL vs RMS, NST, EVN, SLR

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finicky said:
This reflection has caused me to change my mind about adding any more RRL. I won't be selling, it's been good divIdend payer and earned a mostly consistently good ROE. It's a mystery to me why it has been such a poor s.p performer. The comments here prompted me to do a price comparison chart for the first time against its 'peers' and the relative performance is quite shocking to me over any yearly multiple from one through to five years. I've chosen the 2 year chart to post but they all tell pretty much the same story. The comparative peer companies being: Ramelius, Northern Star, Evolution and Silverlake.

2 Yr Daily RRL vs RMS, NST, EVN, SLR

View attachment 121775
Click to expand...

How many Gold stocks historically are both good dividend payers and good S.P. performers???
 
Northern Star is the only one I can think of. It's dividend always looks mean compared to the price at the time but plenty would have been holding for say 4 or 5 years from a price of say of $4. The dividend has been quite progressive and the fy20 div was 0.27 ff. On a purchase price of $4 that's an effective yield of 6.75% ff.
 
Actually @Joules MM1 has already done this with his personalised charting link a page back and that was what prompted me for the first time to comparatively chart RRL against some other gold miners.

I knew RRL would fare badly on that measure but had not expected it to be as relatively bad as it has been over any period within a 5 year frame. His chart shows performance of RRL over 4 years compared to gold itself measured in USD and AUD.

The best I can come up with is a graph of RRL against the ASX gold etf GOLD and again I've chosen 2 years:

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Second thoughts about RRL.

When this broker video came out, Nov 4 2020, the share price was at least $4, closed Thursday @ $2.97




The weekly chart shows that in the second month of March RRL traded with the highest positive weekly volume in 12 months - hammer candle. Also the price plumbed the same depth as during the Covid crisis in March 2020. The only other goldie to do this poorly is Northern Star Resources (NST). There's not much doubting the quality of NST. Notably NST also traded at high positive volume in the second week of March - its volume that week was an all time high but that would be tied up with the SAR merger. Since then NST has bounced out of the low.

RRL 2 Year Weekly

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NST 2 Yearly Weekly

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kennas said:
Why has it halved fin? All goldies just come off because of POG? What happened in Aug/Sep that caused gold to halve in 6 months?
Click to expand...

US dollar strength. Although gold last peaked on 5 January at US$1951.34. It climbed throughout December. It's difficult to know when the US dollar's rally is going to end. Some analysts are pretty bullish.

dollar-vs-gold-comparison-last-ten-years-2021-04-02-macrotrends.png
 
Very annoying move by management, I mean really, generating a huge number of shares at a discount to a s.p that was just getting off the mat from a multi-year low. I won't trust them again and won't be putting in for my entitlement.
 
finicky said:
Very annoying move by management, I mean really, generating a huge number of shares at a discount to a s.p that was just getting off the mat from a multi-year low. I won't trust them again and won't be putting in for my entitlement.
Click to expand...
Well i think they want to secure the cash flow from the Tropicana project. Might be worth to run some numbers to see if the capital raising is worth the cash flow from the 30% ownership of production. I do wonder if this aquisition is yield accretive? even if it is not i feel so long as the company doesnt put on any debt it doesnt really matter.

I think the massive share price drop recently might be a buying opportunity as gold is starting to rebound again as FED will always have to suppress bond yields and keep them low, which will keep real rates negative and hence bullish for gold.

Also once the McPhillamys project gets going proper we might get another gap up in SP. though at 1g/ton it sounds like a pretty low grade ore deposit.

The reason for Regis share price depression is likely due to a heavy weightage to hedging a couple years ago. i think they have hedge a significant proportion of production at $1600 so even thought POG is 2300 now , they arent enjoying the full benefits, despite AISC being in the $1400 range.
 
Regis Resources has completed the retail component of its 1 for 3.08 fully underwritten accelerated non-renounceable pro-rata entitlement offer to fund the acquisition of the Tropicana gold mine

The company only received $30 million of applications as part of the offer, representing a total take-up rate of approximately 20 per cent.

Approximately 46 million shortfall of shares under the offer will be allotted to the underwriter and sub-underwriters of the retail entitlement offer.

The company issued 57 million new shares under the offer at $2.70 a share, raising $153.9 million.
 
Bit of a relief for holders. Still spending a lot on development capital not included in AISC. The 30% of Tropicana will take a year to be paying out because of pit development there too - AISC of $2,121, using low grade stockpile while a cutback is done. Uninspiring.
 
RRL annual out.
AISC 1372, divvy 3 CPS are good.
However, dividend is down by half on previous years.
They paid out more in Income Tax to the Feds than they paid out to shareholders.
EPS down 30& on the PCP. Not good.
Production up 6%, revenue up 8%, EBITDA up 3% are only ok.
Guidance for next year is up, which is good, even if the first quarter will be down.
NTA almost doubled, but so did long term liabilities.
Does not seem enough positives for me to invest.
Mick
 
OMG RRL. Can't do any tricks to move sp up...very disappointing to say the least. May even drop further as in the Coles advert...price going down down down...I am not happy...
Redoing my list saw stocks bought about 5yrs ago, NST was around $5 plus n PLS was bought in at 70cts...wish I did hold them at that price. I have started to accumulate lately and MQG was around the $80 marks when I started to look at it...was expensive to me but did enter for the quick profit..was sitting on the fence when it hits $180, saying out loud to my self that it's going to go to 200 which she did..anyway it dropped a bit after going Ex div but will it retreat to $150 hmmm...humming just my humming.
 
RRL not having any luck ( currently ) is fine by me

i currently have a buy order in @ $1.75 to add extra

unlike my previous picks , i am getting slightly bulky on this one

so probably won't be hoping for more than two buys this month

i expect the gold price to continue being suppressed , as they try to flush cash into Treasury Bonds( and prop up the currencies


it is very easy to look wise in hindsight but the potential profit is made jumping in at an attractive opportunity ,

RRL has bought itself a mid-term cash-flow , if the management is sound a reasonable outcome will follow ( for a while )

DYOR
 

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