RRL - Regis Resources

[barney]

Back to my cave for a while

ps. Just for the record, I'm still not convinced about the validity of this current spike lower ….. but I'll come back to gloat when the chart tells me how brilliant my early prediction was …. or not

 

[barney]

ps. Just for the record, I'm still not convinced about the validity of this current spike lower …..

RRL may require a few packs of "No More Gaps" the way its behaving

The $5.42 Low seems to have little grip and it has gapped back higher.

Should be interesting to watch the next few days. Intra day Volume will tell a better story.

 

[barney]

Should be interesting to watch the next few days. Intra day Volume will tell a better story.

Possible?

 

[frugal.rock]

Back to my cave for a while

G'day Al,
Haven't read all the posts about it but saw that you might be in your cave still on this one?
Well Barney bear, you might like to consider waking up out of hibernation on this one?
I noticed tech/a commented about more up on the downside. Now that I understand! Hahaha. Interested in what tech/a has to say on current situation.
I currently have a fear of gold stocks (bloody Dacian..shoulda hung on to my 50c? entries....) and stocks that pay dividends...fear of the unknown there.
Have learnt head grade/strip ratios, waste and AISC are very important factors for a gold miner.
I have just been running a eyeball over this stock.I picked up on it externally to this site. Wasn't on any of my watchlists?
At the current price range I am interested.
F.Rock

 

[Trav.]

I just had a quick look at this and definitely not on my watch list.....maybe because I still have a couple performing the same way

Very low grade for me and production down on last year. At least the AISC is pretty good considering they have underground operations.

 

[frugal.rock]

Thanks Trav! Awesome timely response.
The head grade was an increase.
The worry as I see it (learning from DCN lesson) it's the waste factor or strip ratio (same thing really) that increases costs.
At the moment I am interested in it, as in my opinion, it's now sitting somewhere around a truer value, although I am not qualified to state that and I haven't settled on a valuation method yet. Work in progress...
However, I like to buy at discounts to true valuations made by experts though
I wish I knew more about short trading, never done it yet. Need to fill in a form and figure I should get better at longuns before that.
But that leads me to the point, people do trade short and I don't know how short trades generally affect price?
I am guessing that they may slow down the falling progress?
And I am guessing that the shorties want to see it break under $4.00 ?
I note the XGD down 3.9% on Fryday... yes, most gold stocks got fried on a Fryday the 13th...
I'm not superstitious, but some are!
Cheers. F.Rock

 

[barney]

definitely not on my watch list.....maybe because I still have a couple performing the same way

Yeah. Currently its struggling.

I called a fair bit wrong on this one a few months back, although I did call a couple of pivot areas correctly including under the $5.42 area was going to be a problem … which it has proven to be

At the current price range I am interested.

​

You never know, although the chart looks a bit desperate …. Of course it's also true that the best place to buy is at the last low before a reversal … Hard part is picking the last low of course

I think this will show when its ready but at the moment it's hard to know, and it looks like going lower in the short term ….. POG might give the final answer

 

[Trav.]

Entertaining post @frugal.rock , i like the cut of your jib

However, I like to buy at discounts to true valuations made by experts though

This is a dangerous game IMHO as everyone has an agenda and the big boys are always the winners

I wish I knew more about short trading, never done it yet. Need to fill in a form and figure I should get better at longuns before that.

Never placed a short trade either but not rocket science. Go with the trend and current trend is down. Picking the bottom is a tough gig as @barney highlighted.

I note the XGD down 3.9% on Fryday... yes, most gold stocks got fried on a Fryday the 13th...

I like your work here.

 

[frugal.rock]

Entertaining post , i like the cut of your jib

This is a dangerous game IMHO as everyone has an agenda and the big boys are always the winners

A sailor said that to me once, I tacked in the opposite direction quick smart...
Yarrrrp, I am hoping Morningstar Quantitative is objective free and use a standard set of algorithms...

 

[Trav.]

You never know, although the chart looks a bit desperate …. Of course it's also true that the best place to buy is at the last low before a reversal … Hard part is picking the last low of course

I think this will show when its ready but at the moment it's hard to know, and it looks like going lower in the short term ….. POG might give the final answer

I think that it is time to revisit RRL as the POG is going very strong.

I think that when @barney posted the above on the 15/12/2019 he managed to to get this right as it went down another 0.5%.....well done mate I couldn't have picked that

^^^ I just noticed the multiple " I think " 's above and was going to change it but decided to leave it as is, because I think that I wont be judged on my poor grammar being a high school drop out and will just concentrate on drawing lines with crayon on the screen.

But on a more serious note the 2020 Half Year Financial Results seemed pretty positive and SP responded well. I am sure that the amount of gold hedged would be nice to review but you can't win them all.

Chart below
- Results announced and green day up 2.8%, but this saw a lower close than I would have like, possible long suffering holders getting out
- Good finish to rest of week up ~ 5% over all
- I expect a positive week again so will be watching closely on Monday and may take a short term position as people continue to scour gold companies

 

[frugal.rock]

Revisited this one a few days ago.
Seems to generally follow the XGD during the day.
Gold is the rabbit warren.
Traders are the rabbits.
Rabbit feed is any stock/product other than gold and they like to diversify their daily flavours.
Be the rabbit. Don't get eaten by the fox, shot by the cocky etc.

F.Rock

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Regis Resources is targeting up to a 7 per cent lift in gold production in the 2021 financial year as the soaring gold price underwrote a record full year profit.

Net profit increased 22 per cent to $200 million in the 2020 financial year as gold sales rose 16 per cent to $757 million. The miner sold 353,182 ounces of gold at an average price of $2200 an ounce.

The miner produced 352,042 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1246 an ounce.

Regis Resources has forecast full year production of between 355,000 ounces and 380,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of between $1230 an ounce and $1300 an ounce.

A full franked final dividend of 8¢ a share was declared and will be paid on October 16.

The company has paid $488 million in dividends since 2013.

 

[finicky]

Regis Resources one of two gold miners in the picks by Bell Potter analysts for cal 2021 (the other was Aeris Resources - AIS - fwiw)

"Regis Resources (RRL)
We continue to view RRL as an attractive,
reliable gold producer. Consistent
operating margins have been maintained
across the business. RRL’s FY20 EBITDA
margin of 52% is competitive with, or
ahead of, key industry peers. RRL’s ongoing
CAPEX is, in our view, an investment
into attractive, capital efficient growth
options that leverage off RRL’s existing
infrastructure – an aspect of its operations
that set it apart from many peers. This
includes the McPhillamys Project in NSW
which has made good progress through
the permitting process, is well placed
to advance to production, should deliver
material production growth and could
commence construction during 2021. In
our view, the market attributes little value
to this asset.
RRL also remains one of the sector leaders
for shareholder returns. Its FY20 dividend
equates to a payout of $41m and a payout
ratio of 43% of NPAT for a 2.9% fully
franked yield (at dividend declaration).
Buy, Target Price $5.72/sh"

The weekly chart shown strikes me as a reasonable chance of forming a rounding low here. The momentum indicators making lower lows while the price is higher than the last low is an encouraging divergence imo. I hold but am not adding.

Weekly

 

[finicky]

Still weak behaviour in the RRL chart, I was trying to decide at what price I might buy some more. I've been holding for about 5 years I think and the price is getting right down to my buy-in level. Pretty dependable 4.3% ff yield at today's prices - for a mostly consistent goldie!
I must have given the chart a very cursory look to be prattling in my last post about the likelihood of a rounding low here, too casual a comment. The possibility of a low is still live, but dimished in my eyes and not rounding.

Daily

 

[Miner]

Still weak behaviour in the RRL chart, I was trying to decide at what price I might buy some more. I've been holding for about 5 years I think and the price is getting right down to my buy-in level. Pretty dependable 4.3% ff yield at today's prices - for a mostly consistent goldie!
I must have given the chart a very cursory look to be prattling in my last post about the likelihood of a rounding low here, too casual a comment. The possibility of a low is still live, but dimished in my eyes and not rounding.

Daily
View attachment 118663

@finicky - we have something similar here. I buy the stock and then release with a small profit to know it is a ten bagger. examples are MIN - bought at $2 sold at $4, and now we can see. Bought Afterpay at $10 and sold at $14 and looking stupid.
Bought SI6, SBR and similar - and holding to get down and down.
Only one time I felt lucky when I wanted Trump to lose and knowing whoever I put a bet that becomes a losing horse. So put $80 on Trump to win. we all know what happened. My all colleagues have witnessed when I put $80 and outcome. So maybe I run negative winners - If I do not like someone put bet them to win and guess what.
Maybe you and I form a company and commission @tech/a, @So_Cynical, @peter2 and @Garpal Gumnut - we will never loose.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@finicky - we have something similar here. I buy the stock and then release with a small profit to know it is a ten bagger. examples are MIN - bought at $2 sold at $4, and now we can see. Bought Afterpay at $10 and sold at $14 and looking stupid.
Bought SI6, SBR and similar - and holding to get down and down.
Only one time I felt lucky when I wanted Trump to lose and knowing whoever I put a bet that becomes a losing horse. So put $80 on Trump to win. we all know what happened. My all colleagues have witnessed when I put $80 and outcome. So maybe I run negative winners - If I do not like someone put bet them to win and guess what.
Maybe you and I form a company and commission @tech/a, @So_Cynical, @peter2 and @Garpal Gumnut - we will never loose.

You are not alone @Miner

The closest game to trading/investing is Cricket.

gg

 

[Miner]

You are not alone @Miner

The closest game to trading/investing is Cricket.

gg

Yes cricket . After so much sporting behaviours by Tim Paine and SCG crowd India did what they are good at- reply on thevfield that too by their Team B.
Lol.

 

[brerwallabi]

Volume down, gold price down, next kick in gold price hmmm?

 

[finicky]

Maybe it's near a low, anyway scratched the itch and added 2,000 @ 3.65
I bought my stake in RRL in November 2016 @ 3.27. Since then it's reurned better than 20% ROE and 8 straight fully franked half yearly divs of 8cps. Good cash position - who cares if the pit grades are low? Proof is in the pudding for me when AISC, ROE, building b/v, div yield are all consistently good.
Looking back over the 10 years of stats that Commsec offers there was one bad year, 2014, that was pretty disastrous (I recall: pit wall collapse, grade reurning sub expectations, low gold price) but the rest were above 20% ROE with the book value growing from 0.32 in 2011 to 1.64 in 2020. The total shareholder return for this can be strong in an upswing.
Needs a conviction in LT sustainability of gold price appreciation which I have in spades.

 

[finicky]

RRL

Thought I should add something cautionary.
My attention was drawn to the impending December Quarterly by someone today - often I neglect the simplest things. The December Qtrly came out January 22 last year so could be Friday or Monday this time. Maybe this is why the price has been treading water and acting ambiguous? I might have jumped the gun buying a few RRL today.

Management said in the September Quarterly, "we continue to consider our FY21 production guidance of between 355,000 to 380,000oz as appropriate albeit as previously noted with a stronger production weighting to the second half of the financial year."

So it's natural to infer from this that the December Quarterly report can't be expected to be stellar, since production is tipped to be stronger in H2. Among possible harmless reasons for weaker H1 is a higher stripping ratio than average life of mine and their newly producing u/g mine (Rosemont) still appears to be in ramp up stage.