RFX - Redflow Limited

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I traded a few swings in Feb and March, but took it off the watchlist after the trend reversal that followed the fund raising in March - quite predictably.
Back on my radar now that it seems to have found support at 35c, which is phi on the Fibonacci subdivision:



At this stage, I can't reliably tell whether the dropping-off volume is an indication of waning buyers' interest or reduced supply. In time, the chart will tell me.

 

[tbtrader]

The price has been bouncing on this one recently, speculation (Due to recent media exposure from Chairman installing the system at their offices) or just general market jitters?

Looking forward to your thoughts.

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Owns shares in RFX.

 

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I'd like to see the first sales into the residential market:
Launch of ZCell home energy storage system

We expect the fully installed cost of a 10 kWh ZCell-based energy storage system will start from $17,500 - $19,500 including GST.

Sounds all very good - except where they qualify:

Robust performance in even hot and demanding remote locations without the need for external cooling until an ambient outside temperature of at least 45 degrees Celsius

The chart suggests that the market may be warming to the company - quite a lot of which may have to do with the recent 23c Entitlement offer, which was oversubscribed.



It's on my watchlist, but at this moment not in my portfolio.

 

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Sounds all very good - except where they qualify:
Robust performance in even hot and demanding remote locations without the need for external cooling until an ambient outside temperature of at least 45 degrees Celsius

On second thoughts, it may not be a problem. Consider this:
If it's 45 degrees-plus, you won't need to draw power from the battery, but happily live off the SPV.
When the sun doesn't shine, temperatures are unlikely to stay above 40.

That leaves the question: Do higher temperatures cause any lasting damage to the battery? Or is it only rendering charging/ discharging processes ineffective? Maybe worth asking if an opportunity presents itself?

 

[orr]

When I'm looking over this company, now that they've designed a far more mass marketable product my thoughts go to the economies of scale that they can generate and how quickly.
Or do they stay relatively niche???
100% depth of discharge(DoD), the non-hazard nature and 'abuse' tolerance are big advantages over lithium for stationary... But there's another player with all those advantages that I've made reference to some years back in the 'US employment' thread, whislt they were still in the developmet stage, this company is now importing to Australia. I'll note also that the US product is front and centre in some recent battery storage system training exercise seminars. And I'll add that the said company is still owned by venture capital making MW's of storage today, and not even talking about the need for an IPO for expansion...
If nothing else it tells you there's plenty of room in this space.

 

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Assuming it's not solely today's hike across the Energy space that gives Redflow a boost, I am treating this as a breakout to be bought into. Stop if it turns out to be a false break, i.e. drops back into the D-box.

 

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... and a little background from a Fundamental p.o.v. ...

Chairman Simon Hackett puts his money where his mouth is:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/ener...-with-zcell-home-battery-20160329-gntpfi.html

He has also resigned from the board of NBN Co in order to do something more useful:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/iine...d-replaces-simon-hackett-20160422-gocz62.html

As an aside, crossing into the NBN topic:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbns...ibretothenode-technology-20150325-1m77el.html

 

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Flag formation on the next level?
I hold, intending to hold/ add/ stop depending on the way sp moves relative to the current D-Box.

 

[So_Cynical]

The boys with the new toy, somehow it dosent look serious enough.
~

 

[So_Cynical]

Redflow is pleased to announce a shareholder promotion under which a $1,000 cash rebate will be available to eligible shareholders who buy and install a ZCell Energy System in Australia before 31 December 2017.

http://us6.campaign-archive2.com/?u=0d72762e068e17b26906ba92b&id=090231e5fc&e=e56474972d

All Australian resident shareholders with at least 5,500 shares as at 31 October 2016 will be eligible to participate. Online applications must be submitted by 31 October 2016 and their eligibility confirmed by the Company by 1 December 2016.

The rebate will be available for up to 250 eligible claims. There will be a limit of one rebate claim per installed ZCell Energy System.

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Thats nice of them.

 

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After Wednesday's power blackout in SA, they may muster a few customers there.
Today's buying on good early volume suggests that more investors share that view.



I'm buying RFX. When our 40c FIT runs out in 2020, I'll most likely install a ZCell too.

 

[So_Cynical]

I'm buying RFX.

Yep this is about where the turning point should be, i should probably get a few more here.

 

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Yep this is about where the turning point should be, i should probably get a few more here.

I reckon today's move confirms it

 

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Yep this is about where the turning point should be, i should probably get a few more here.

I hope you did
Good luck to all of us holders.



Hopefully, it's not merely the SA blackout effect, but rather the start of a successful sales campaign.

 

[So_Cynical]

I hope you did
Good luck to all of us holders.

Didn't, you know the story - only so many dollars etc.

But i did get in early, 100% open profit at the moment. and come December i get the CGT discount.

 

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Let's try again
The pullback offered an opportunity for short-term profit taking.



Reports of first installations seem to have convinced the Market that it's for real, and we're now on the rebound off a 50% retracement. If current resistance at 50c can be broken with gusto, I get an initial target above 60c. Good enough for another entry.

 

[So_Cynical]

Good news story in the AFR.

http://www.afr.com/technology/top-g...-batteries-a-tick-of-approval-20161017-gs4kdj

 

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Good news story in the AFR.

http://www.afr.com/technology/top-g...-batteries-a-tick-of-approval-20161017-gs4kdj

Thanks for that, S_C
Stressing that the first customer was Hackett's mate, and a tech nerd at that, may have put off a few investors. I know, it's hindsight, but it's always good to find an explanation after the chart showed an unexpected turn. No worries though - I got off in time when T/A told me to.

 

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ASX questioned how long their cash reserves wold last, given current burn rate.
In light of RFX being one of three in the SA 3-horse race, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Most importantly, the Chart seems to support an optimistic outlook.

I hold a small speccie position. w8nc

 

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Still waiting for the breakout, but the odds are improving inspite of low volume.