Retail Wreckage

[Smurf1976]

With regards to retail numbers, people tend to under-estimate it's impact. I think it's similar to the canary in the coal mine.

I think it's a bit like a doctor checking your temperature.

It's an easy to check indicator and a warning sign of deeper problems.

 

[aus_trader]

I think it's a bit like a doctor checking your temperature.

It's an easy to check indicator and a warning sign of deeper problems.

Yep, similar thinking

And as far as I could tell the numbers are real coming from retail, unlike employment figures which can be fudged.

 

[Smurf1976]

And as far as I could tell the numbers are real coming from retail, unlike employment figures which can be fudged.

Something that would be interesting is if there's any proper data for the total value of purchases from overseas retailers?

That would answer the question as to whether the money's going to someone on the other side of the world or if consumers simply aren't spending it at all?

 

[aus_trader]

Something that would be interesting is if there's any proper data for the total value of purchases from overseas retailers?

That would answer the question as to whether the money's going to someone on the other side of the world or if consumers simply aren't spending it at all?

Yeah, that would be really interesting to see, but really hard to track as well with online purchases capable of buying goods globally.

It could be that consumers aren't spending at all as well. As other fellow commenters said RBA over-stimulation message of cutting rates down to near -ve levels have sent the wrong message and people are worried as to why they need to go to such extreme measures if things are jolly good down under ?

 

[Smurf1976]

Yeah, that would be really interesting to see, but really hard to track as well with online purchases capable of buying goods globally.

I'd expect the banks would be able to extract some data from customer accounts but that privacy rules might preclude it?

I mean if someone's buying from overseas then ultimately the money's coming out of a bank account at some point so it should be possible I'd think.

 

[tinhat]

Generally I like your stuff tinhat, including comparing stocks vs ex girlfriends which I thought was funny. But some of the views you have are extreme man, even scary. Hope you don't form a party as Humid suggested
With regards to retail numbers, people tend to under-estimate it's impact. I think it's similar to the canary in the coal mine.

Extreme is being a child stuck in a concentration camp thousands of miles from your family with no clothes and no hope, cold and lonely and vulnerable. If I am extreme it is because I am aware of what I have and what others don't.

 

[sptrawler]

I've got one of those and 250,000 litres of tank water which I will double over time. Bushfire is a big issue where I live and I love living in nature and I am deeply grateful to be living on Dharawal land immersed in that culture which is all around my local landscape. I will be handing over my land title to the custodians of the this land when I die.

I'm open to all reform proposals but there is one thing that is certain, which is that significant tax reform is needed in Australia and has been for decades now. So, if older people aren't prepared to be part of that then I think it is inevitable that they are going to be euthanized one way or another. Right now, old people in nursing homes are sitting in their own feces with open bed sores drugged up so they don't cause trouble.

What I do not understand is why the young people, what every we call them (millennials?) are not in open revolt right now.

All the above is just focused on the structure of fiscal affairs. So no need to even start on the environmental issues.

There is a reason the young arent revolting, a lot are sitting on their bums, playing warcraft and getting bedsores of their own.lol

 

[aus_trader]

Extreme is being a child stuck in a concentration camp thousands of miles from your family with no clothes and no hope, cold and lonely and vulnerable. If I am extreme it is because I am aware of what I have and what others don't.

That's another way to look at it, but I wasn't going to include anything regarding to children as it is a very emotive subject, even looking at off-shore processing of children etc...

I was referring to your comments mainly regarding nuking off the old. What I find really interesting is how the West sees the old compared to how the East sees (or used to see) the old. The West sees the old as a burden on society, an unproductive pension/tax sucking mob that should be institutionalised and locked up in nursing homes, allowed to rot in their own faeces as you mentioned and accordingly euthanised if you had your way. So that's the scary bit I was referring to. The East on the other hand used to see the elderly as Wise Old members of the society to whom people paid respect to and learnt from. Although times are slowly changing as the Eastern are becoming more Westernised...

 

[sptrawler]

Something that would be interesting is if there's any proper data for the total value of purchases from overseas retailers?

That would answer the question as to whether the money's going to someone on the other side of the world or if consumers simply aren't spending it at all?

That data will come out probably in 12 months time, a lot of overseas suppliers have only recently signed up to collect gst for the ato, so it will take time for the data to be correlated.
But I do know anyone who owns a Jeep, buys their parts from the U.S.
The other thing that is coming into play IMO is ebay and aliexpress, up untill recently purchasing items from China direct took forever to arrive if at all, recently the delivery time is down to about two weeks. So something has changed, either in their postal service or ours.
With regard the U.S I know parts for my car arrive within 7 days.
So it does put a lot on pressure on local retailers.
I think Aussie retail is a space not to be in at the moment.

 

[tinhat]

I'm sure if they learn to behave themselves then there is something useful we can find for them to do. All joking aside... Well actually, I'm only half joking. It's as if all generations see the other generations as being over entitled. I'm only being half facetious because I think there is a lot of intergenerational reckoning that needs to happen.

For several years I ran a thing where the young kiddies came into the local community garden along with parents who could get time off during school hours and older folk too. I taught those kids a thing or two.

So I agree with you but if the old people are going to get uppity with their franking credits and such then as far as I am concerned they can sit in their feces. Those sorts are probably going to have kids who don't care much about them anyway.

 

[tinhat]

Oh and I am serious about the euthanizing of old people it's going to happen. It's just plain demographics. Sorry about that. We are apes after all.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm sure if they learn to behave themselves then there is something useful we can find for them to do. All joking aside... Well actually, I'm only half joking. It's as if all generations see the other generations as being over entitled. I'm only being half facetious because I think there is a lot of intergenerational reckoning that needs to happen.

For several years I ran a thing where the young kiddies came into the local community garden along with parents who could get time off during school hours and older folk too. I taught those kids a thing or two.

So I agree with you but if the old people are going to get uppity with their franking credits and such then as far as I am concerned they can sit in their feces. Those sorts are probably going to have kids who don't care much about them anyway.

As long as the kids are prepared to go bush to get a job and dont expecf their first house to be better than my last house I wouldnt have a problem foregoing my franking credits.
So if a young person is unemployed in Sydney and there are jobs they are qualified for in Broken Hill, they are given assistance but must take it, ill give up my franking cre dits to pay for that. At least it will stop us having to bring in 457s and backpackers to do the jobs.
By the way I have a 40 year old son who would rather be on newstart in Perth than go bush to get a job, so I do know how hard it is, and yes I do have trouble dealing with him. And yes he does feel entitled.

 

[sptrawler]

Oh and I am serious about the euthanizing of old people it's going to happen. It's just plain demographics. Sorry about that. We are apes after all.

I think the right to chose euthanasia is probably going to sort out a lot of the age related problems, but I bet your Mum is nervous. Lol

 

[Smurf1976]

It's as if all generations see the other generations as being over entitled.

I think the big problem between generations is a failure to fully understand the facts of the situation as it applies to others.

Oldies who fail to grasp that in 2020 phone calls are effectively free but houses are ludicrously expensive and that even professional jobs are difficult to get.

Young people who fail to grasp the reality that whilst rich people are typically older, most older people aren't rich and most were never part of any government either.

Reality is that most would have a very different view if they made the effort to fully understand the detail of the other's situation.

So I agree with you but if the old people are going to get uppity with their franking credits and such then as far as I am concerned they can sit in their feces.

The point there is that one group in society didn't see it as reasonable that they paid a higher rate of tax than anyone else on the same income.

It's a classic example of my point in that if younger people did the maths, actually did the maths for real, then they'd immediately see the discrepancy and the point being made.

 

[Smurf1976]

Oh and I am serious about the euthanizing of old people it's going to happen. It's just plain demographics. Sorry about that. We are apes after all.

I'm in favour of it for reasons of avoiding pain and suffering and so on but definitely not as a purely economic measure, that's an incredibly slippery slope in my opinion.

 

[Smurf1976]

By the way I have a 40 year old son who would rather be on newstart in Perth than go bush to get a job, so I do know how hard it is, and yes I do have trouble dealing with him. And yes he does feel entitled.

Is the situation in Perth really that bad that there's no option for work locally?

 

[qldfrog]

That should have read organizations

You meant organisations ;-)

 

[qldfrog]

That's another way to look at it, but I wasn't going to include anything regarding to children as it is a very emotive subject, even looking at off-shore processing of children etc...

I was referring to your comments mainly regarding nuking off the old. What I find really interesting is how the West sees the old compared to how the East sees (or used to see) the old. The West sees the old as a burden on society, an unproductive pension/tax sucking mob that should be institutionalised and locked up in nursing homes, allowed to rot in their own faeces as you mentioned and accordingly euthanised if you had your way. So that's the scary bit I was referring to. The East on the other hand used to see the elderly as Wise Old members of the society to whom people paid respect to and learnt from. Although times are slowly changing as the Eastern are becoming more Westernised...

I doubt @tinhat will ever see wisdom in old men, he knows better .
Do not worry, even if unaware, he will become an old fart too and become one of US, you know the despicables

 

[qldfrog]

It's a classic example of my point in that if younger people did the maths, actually did the maths for real, then they'd immediately see the discrepancy and the point being made.

That is the overall problem
From being uneducated,dumb or just plain lazy, people just jump on the bandwagon without even doing their own thinking .
Valid for all generations and side of politics
You see this with @tinhat comments but also on the greeness (less) of EV in Australia, the co2 causing GW scam, bushfires etc etc
Get the raw data and do your own conclusion, not premashed articles be it from Guardian or Murdoch, or FB.
We discuss at length about data bias, and we all suffer from it via the news
This is the reason we care more about retail health than gov GDP or unemployment figures
We have a brain, and if here, usually some knowledge: let's use it

 

[sptrawler]

Is the situation in Perth really that bad that there's no option for work locally?

Most of the trade based work is in the bush, not much project or building work going on in the city, there is still a glut of houses from the 2015 bust.