Retail Wreckage

[bsnews]

Most of the business that have gone bust would never of been able to open let alone burn through millions of $ without COVID.
The time of free money has vanished for the time being BUT wait there is more!

 

[finicky]

Is it as bad as that in discretionary retail? Might be opportunities for those looking across the valley?
Four year weekly charts:
Accent Grp (AX1) chart is strong, JBH, TRS not too bad. I'm seeing a few possible double lows (Beacon (BLX), Temple (TPW), Adairs (ADH), or bases forming (Kogan (KGN), Mosaic (MOZ))
Some macro pundits (Felix Zulauf, David Hunter) think there's a broad rally ahead before a collapse. I'm not willing to bet on discretionary retail until some seismic event has passed - I got caught out by the Thorne Grp collapse and am not capable of assessing a factor like 'lease liabilities' and the implications when retailers have to shut down multiple unprofitable stores prematurely.

 

[finicky]

WTF? This set me back.
Discretionary retail was second best capital gainer on Friday but over the last 52 weeks Discretionary has been the best! According to this Market Index bar chart. Almost as amazing to me is that Real Estate ranks second best.

On Friday, as mentioned elsewhere, retailers AX1, MHK and UNI jumped. I believe I've read that PMV has hit an all time high?

Seems extremely contrarian to me with the pervasive negative opinionating over debt levels, rising interest rates, consumer confidence. Certainly I've avoided the sector over the last year or so.

 

[divs4ever]

WTF? This set me back.
Discretionary retail was second best capital gainer on Friday but over the last 52 weeks Discretionary has been the best! According to this Market Index bar chart. Almost as amazing to me is that Real Estate ranks second best.

On Friday, as mentioned elsewhere, retailers AX1, MHK and UNI jumped. I believe I've read that PMV has hit an all time high?

Seems extremely contrarian to me with the pervasive negative opinionating over debt levels, rising interest rates, consumer confidence. Certainly I've avoided the sector over the last year or so.

View attachment 181207

retail is dead ... long live retail

despite my biases retail is a significant part of the portfolio and despite the recent downturn in motor vehicle sector and that is mostly because of the gains ( over my buying prices ) .

had the motor vehicle sector followed the wider consumer discretionary trend in would be my largest holding by sector

going to be an interesting end for the year , when retail tends to get a boost in any Santa Rally

 

[Chipp]

WTF? This set me back.
Discretionary retail was second best capital gainer on Friday but over the last 52 weeks Discretionary has been the best! According to this Market Index bar chart. Almost as amazing to me is that Real Estate ranks second best.

XDJ is higher now than when Inflation begun , that is a bit of a shock . Might have to look for some shorts in the sector . Run some screens a bit later


EDIT ... Ok sector seems somewhat skewed by the 2 top 50 stocks in the index being basically at ATH , nothing to see here

 

[Knobby22]

Is it as bad as that in discretionary retail? Might be opportunities for those looking across the valley?
Four year weekly charts:
Accent Grp (AX1) chart is strong, JBH, TRS not too bad. I'm seeing a few possible double lows (Beacon (BLX), Temple (TPW), Adairs (ADH), or bases forming (Kogan (KGN), Mosaic (MOZ))
Some macro pundits (Felix Zulauf, David Hunter) think there's a broad rally ahead before a collapse. I'm not willing to bet on discretionary retail until some seismic event has passed - I got caught out by the Thorne Grp collapse and am not capable of assessing a factor like 'lease liabilities' and the implications when retailers have to shut down multiple unprofitable stores prematurely.

Also shavershop SSG. Been great for me.
AX1 is in a great position, people will always shell out for stupidly expensive runners. With the Olympics, even more so.

 

[divs4ever]

XDJ is higher now than when Inflation begun , that is a bit of a shock . Might have to look for some shorts in the sector . Run some screens a bit later


View attachment 181218

please don't neglect the motor vehicle sector ( a couple are fairly close to my top-up range )