Retail Wreckage

[Smurf1976]

Just over 206,000 people attended the event over the four days to Sunday, down from 254,000 last year and 273,500 in 2018.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/adelaide-500-has-lowest-attendance-in-17-years/11993770

Regardless of what factors specific to this event might be leading to reduced numbers, reality is it's yet another example of consumer discretionary spending being cut. Down 7% last year and down another 19% this year.

 

[SirRumpole]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/adelaide-500-has-lowest-attendance-in-17-years/11993770

Regardless of what factors specific to this event might be leading to reduced numbers, reality is it's yet another example of consumer discretionary spending being cut. Down 7% last year and down another 19% this year.

Will be interesting to see how the AFL and NRL crowds stack up this year compared to previous years.

Admission to these events isn't cheap, especially for families so an economic downturn should certainly be reflected in such discretionary spending.

 

[basilio]

The real question about attendance at any public events this year will be the impact of the Covid 19 virus. The rate at which large public gatherings are being cancelled in Sth Korea, Japan, Italy etc because of the risk of spreading the disease is escalating rapidly.

Lets not be surprised at this possibility here.

 

[basilio]

What are the essentials of life ?

A roof over your head, basic food, and groceries power, phones. internet (!)

Obviously we all would like more and the current system is built on creating and servicing more and more wants. But when everything is stripped back we can get by on a very minimal spend - if for example we are quarantined at home.

The problem is the impact this will have on the economic system we currently have.

 

[macca]

Perhaps the age of consumerism is waning.

For the past two decades I have been quite intrigued by the mania to spend, spend, spend and to do, do, do, the concept of having a nice quiet beer or cool drink in the shade of a tree is just so old fashioned.

I walk through any shopping area and I see mainly cafes and dress shops, how they have all survived this long has remained a mystery to me.

The concept of saving for a rainy day has been embraced by very few people over the past twenty years but I recently read that a survey of the new next gen indicates that they are over the must have everything now phase and are actually spending less.

Perhaps we will have another hippy phase where we all wear old clothes and look like scruffs. We can wear jeans that were actually torn while in use rather than jeans that wore torn Before we bought them.

If ever there was an example of how dumb fashion can be, people paying big bucks for pre-torn jeans....... crazy

With the extreme dependence on China for supply of just about everything I do think that very shortly the supply chains must reopen, personal travel may stay restricted but goods will start to flow by international agreement.

I was in Newcastle yesterday, NO ships waiting for coal, two coal loaders empty, they won't allow it to continue, don't be caught short in the market when the UN? announces that international supply will recommence

 

[basilio]

Just a clarification of my earlier post. When I said what are the essentials of life and pointed out the minimum, it also assumed a base set of resources. Having a home with furniture, whitegoods, wardrobe, ect. The economic challenge is to persuade us to continually turn these over or buy new experiences ,

Not sure if that is going to be as easily possible in the next few months for many people.

 

[SirRumpole]

Perhaps the age of consumerism is waning.

For the past two decades I have been quite intrigued by the mania to spend, spend, spend and to do, do, do, the concept of having a nice quiet beer or cool drink in the shade of a tree is just so old fashioned.

I walk through any shopping area and I see mainly cafes and dress shops, how they have all survived this long has remained a mystery to me.

The concept of saving for a rainy day has been embraced by very few people over the past twenty years but I recently read that a survey of the new next gen indicates that they are over the must have everything now phase and are actually spending less.

Perhaps we will have another hippy phase where we all wear old clothes and look like scruffs. We can wear jeans that were actually torn while in use rather than jeans that wore torn Before we bought them.

If ever there was an example of how dumb fashion can be, people paying big bucks for pre-torn jeans....... crazy

With the extreme dependence on China for supply of just about everything I do think that very shortly the supply chains must reopen, personal travel may stay restricted but goods will start to flow by international agreement.

I was in Newcastle yesterday, NO ships waiting for coal, two coal loaders empty, they won't allow it to continue, don't be caught short in the market when the UN? announces that international supply will recommence

Due to the flood of cheap stuff from overseas, the volume of things that people buy has probably increased, but they are probably spending roughly the same percentage of their income on consumer goods. Having said that, non discretionary spending has also increased, power, fuel government charges etc so the opportunity for discretionary spending is now reducing.

Maybe people will now start looking for value, clothes that last longer etc , but unfortunately the quality goods suppliers were mostly driven broke years ago.

 

[CBerg]

Perhaps the age of consumerism is waning.

For the past two decades I have been quite intrigued by the mania to spend, spend, spend and to do, do, do, the concept of having a nice quiet beer or cool drink in the shade of a tree is just so old fashioned.

I walk through any shopping area and I see mainly cafes and dress shops, how they have all survived this long has remained a mystery to me.

The concept of saving for a rainy day has been embraced by very few people over the past twenty years but I recently read that a survey of the new next gen indicates that they are over the must have everything now phase and are actually spending less.

Perhaps we will have another hippy phase where we all wear old clothes and look like scruffs. We can wear jeans that were actually torn while in use rather than jeans that wore torn Before we bought them.

If ever there was an example of how dumb fashion can be, people paying big bucks for pre-torn jeans....... crazy

With the extreme dependence on China for supply of just about everything I do think that very shortly the supply chains must reopen, personal travel may stay restricted but goods will start to flow by international agreement.

I was in Newcastle yesterday, NO ships waiting for coal, two coal loaders empty, they won't allow it to continue, don't be caught short in the market when the UN? announces that international supply will recommence

Young people definitely aren't over spending, they just spend it differently.
Almost every person I speak to asks where I'm going travel next. It's just assumed you want to travel probably in the same way it was assumed you moved out & had your own place with a car 30-40 years ago.

People don't know what to say when I mention I'm over travelling, I want to do an all around Australia caravan trip at some point in 10 years but between now & then I'm head down bum up building an asset base.

One thing to note in my age bracket(late 20's/early 30's) is a LOT of people are actually settling down, buying houses & having kids. I'd say becoming an adult has been delayed 10+ years for most people and the impact that would have on steady state assumptions is probably reflected in the state of retail today.

 

[macca]

Young people definitely aren't over spending, they just spend it differently.
Almost every person I speak to asks where I'm going travel next. It's just assumed you want to travel probably in the same way it was assumed you moved out & had your own place with a car 30-40 years ago.

People don't know what to say when I mention I'm over travelling, I want to do an all around Australia caravan trip at some point in 10 years but between now & then I'm head down bum up building an asset base.

One thing to note in my age bracket(late 20's/early 30's) is a LOT of people are actually settling down, buying houses & having kids. I'd say becoming an adult has been delayed 10+ years for most people and the impact that would have on steady state assumptions is probably reflected in the state of retail today.

Interesting comments, following on from here, the rising cost of houses means that any paying the huge mortgages are Not going to be spending spare cash, they simply won't have any.

Too many new people far too quickly over the past 5 years has placed extreme and quite unfair pressure on your generation IMO

 

[sptrawler]

Another one bites the dust.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/kikki.k-is-placed-into-voluntary-administration/12044012
From the article:
Almost 500 jobs are in limbo after Melbourne-based stationery chain kikki.K was placed into voluntary administration.

The chain has 65 stores across Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, London and New Zealand, as well as an online store.

Barry Wight from the company's receiver, Cor Cordis, told the ABC that the retail chain has been struggling for some time but that poor summer trade had likely exacerbated its problems.

I wouldn't have thought stationary would be a strong retail sector these days, with computers etc.

 

[SirRumpole]

I wouldn't have thought stationary would be a strong retail sector these days, with computers etc.

I don't know the financial status of Officeworks, but that would be one to watch in the stationary area, although they more diversified into computers, office furniture etc.

 

[CBerg]

Kikki K was a bit like Kmart - stocking all the trendy cheap junk from Asia. More of a gift shop than anything else I reckon. Typically better quality & higher prices than Kmart but junk all the same.

 

[sptrawler]

I don't know the financial status of Officeworks, but that would be one to watch in the stationary area, although they more diversified into computers, office furniture etc.

They are owned by Wesfarmers, so they will outlast the opposition a bit like a Bunnings for stationary, survival of the biggest.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Kikki K was a bit like Kmart - stocking all the trendy cheap junk from Asia. More of a gift shop than anything else I reckon. Typically better quality & higher prices than Kmart but junk all the same.

Kikki K was a Smiggle wanna-be

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I don't know the financial status of Officeworks, but that would be one to watch in the stationary area, although they more diversified into computers, office furniture etc.

Probably finding it hard to move all that stationary

 

[SirRumpole]

Probably finding it hard to move all that stationary

Yes, start of the school year would be their best time probably.

(I see what you did there, very good )

I can't edit my deliberate error now.

 

[mullokintyre]

Japan Post wont be happy, I wonder if the I.T system came with TOLL, or Japan Post put their own in when they bought Toll out?

There have been quite a few unusual and unexpected consequences of the Ukraine/Russian conflict , and not all of them are bad.
Conti, is one of the biggest Ransomware businesses around.
It seems that the "employees" of Conti come from a non country background, despite attempts to portray hackers as always emanating from Russia, China or North Korea. One of them at least appears to have come from the Ukraine, and was not happy about sharing with fellow Russian Employees. so has spilled the beans in a big way.
From Todays Australian

The leaking of more than a hundred thousand internal messages at the world‘s biggest ransomware gang has offered explosive insights into how it attacks its victims which include Australian companies.
When Conti announced “full support of the Russian government” in the war against Ukraine on February 25, it took only two days for Conti chat sessions to find their way onto the internet, with the likely source being a Ukrainian supporter within the cybercriminal group.

Bleeping Computer reports leaks of more than 160,000 internal messages, along with source code for the Conti ransomware encryptor, decryptor and builder.

Conti has reportedly clocked up more than 500 corporate victims. They include Ireland’s health service, Japanese multinational electronics company JVCKenwood, and in Australia, Queensland’s CS Energy, among others.

It remains to be seen if this means the demise of Conti, I suspect not, but it would appear that it has caused some disruption.
Micik

 

[finicky]

What the ..?
Almost all the discretionary retailers on my list are up today.
Ones I take more of an interest in are all up except BLX:
AX1, TPW ^9%! ARB ^6% ADH, NCK
Even RFG is up today on some announcement I haven't read and MYR and MOZ up also.
NCK is a disappointment as I am goulishly hoping for more deterioration so I can pick up an entry.

 

[greggles]

BoozeBud
Bobux
EziBuy
Colab
Sanity
In2Food
Alice McCall
Brosa
Sushi Bay
MilkRun

The merry-go-round of retail collapses continues in 2023. That's just the business names I could remember or find fairly quickly and is a sample of the bigger names that people might recognise. The number of smaller retail insolvencies, local retail businesses around the country going bust, must be enormous.

The COVID retail party is well and truly over and tough times are back again. Plenty more retailers will be hitting the skids this year as the domestic economy continues to slow.

 

[farmerge]

BoozeBud
Bobux
EziBuy
Colab
Sanity
In2Food
Alice McCall
Brosa
Sushi Bay
MilkRun

The merry-go-round of retail collapses continues in 2023. That's just the business names I could remember or find fairly quickly and is a sample of the bigger names that people might recognise. The number of smaller retail insolvencies, local retail businesses around the country going bust, must be enormous.

The COVID retail party is well and truly over and tough times are back again. Plenty more retailers will be hitting the skids this year as the domestic economy continues to slow.

Who would want to be a small to medium trader in today's climate. Possibly plenty of foot traffic going past the door, but not too many entering, from what Ihave observed whilst in the local major shopping complex here.