Recession etc, are things really that bad?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Was talking to a local mine worker where I am (coal) and he said they were flat out and putting on another 138 people. People still seem to be spending here.

Yes, the mines with future contracts tied down are ok, and also the ones getting the top soil scraped and infrastructure for the ramp up again in 2-3 years time.

Once Queensland approves uranium export we will boom again. Some of my Labor mates from the Right have it on their agenda.

gg

 

[kincella]

oh my goodness....you really are serious about the white shoebrigade in their 70-80's in a 2 town population of what was it...????? drum roll please....165,000....holding up the oz economy.....
just like all those storm investors......yes....I can see how bright and astute they all were....800 potentially to lose their homes....
sorry...you must be pulling each others legs...to see how far you stretch...

 

[nunthewiser]

LOL you truly have no idea kincella ........

unreal . um dear . you have any idea how much mining royalties put in the guvvy coffers year in year out ? and thats JUST royalties let alone taxes , employment and ALL flow on industrys . um without all these rural industrys there would be NO swanky city offices etc .....
any idea on the money that farming produces for this country ?


lol i give up replying to anything you say on any more threads m8 as you truly are delusional on the ACTUAL workings of anything . INCLUDING houseing.

have a great day and thanks for the giggles at least

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

oh my goodness....you really are serious about the white shoebrigade in their 70-80's in a 2 town population of what was it...????? drum roll please....165,000....holding up the oz economy.....
just like all those storm investors......yes....I can see how bright and astute they all were....800 potentially to lose their homes....
sorry...you must be pulling each others legs...to see how far you stretch...

Mate, can I ask you a personal question.

Have you ever been outside Melbourne?

gg

 

[kincella]

I have been there...never to return...

 

[Beej]

This is so funny! Sorry I started a city vs country battle here

On the one hand we have people from North Queensland massively underrating the productive economic output of some 8.5M people (Ie the 40% of the entire population that live in Sydney/Melbourne), while in all fairness, over-rating the impact of a few hundred k people who live in a couple of significant regional towns that are blessed with robust and unarguably highly productive resource sectors.

Yes the resource and to a lesser extent the agriculture sectors are economically highly productive; especially due to the export income generated, royalties etc etc. It is probably fair to say that relative to their populations, that some of the North Queensland towns (Townsville, Mackay, Gladstone) punch economically above their weight.

However, to then use this to discount the input of 40% of the AU population and claim that these few hundred thousand people are somehow carrying/subsidising the capital cities is complete bollocks! The reality is that Sydney/Melbourne and in a broader sense NSW and VIC have for more than a century subsidised the rest of this country economically speaking. This is just a simple fact. Just take a look at the GST contribution of each state vs what they get back from the commonwealth to see this as clear as day. It is only perhaps in the last few years at the peak of the mining boom that QLD and WA have become net contributing states to the commonwealth rather than needing subsidy/disproportionate commonwealth support - and it's about time!

Bottom line nearly everyone here has myopic views and nearly everyone is wrong!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have been there...never to return...

Where did you go?

Moe ?

gg

 

[Soft Dough]

This is so funny! Sorry I started a city vs country battle here

On the one hand we have people from North Queensland massively underrating the productive economic output of some 8.5M people

So,
1. What actually do they produce?
2. What is the net effect of these cities on the prosperity of Australia?

over-rating the impact of a few hundred k people who live in a couple of significant regional towns that are blessed with robust and unarguably highly productive resource sectors.

So please tell me again where did the $300billion go?

The reality is that Sydney/Melbourne and in a broader sense NSW and VIC have for more than a century subsidised the rest of this country economically speaking.

Yes, we were a country that was supported by wheat and sheep, but you can now rate them as second to mining.

This is just a simple fact. Just take a look at the GST contribution of each state vs what they get back from the commonwealth to see this as clear as day. It is only perhaps in the last few years at the peak of the mining boom that QLD and WA have become net contributing states to the commonwealth rather than needing subsidy/disproportionate commonwealth support - and it's about time!

You are basing your assumptions around government debt and spending, vs the net inflows and outflows of money into and out of Australia.

I know which one is by far more important in the living conditions, and standards of this country, and which regions are the epicentres that generate this.

 

[Beej]

So,
1. What actually do they produce?
2. What is the net effect of these cities on the prosperity of Australia?

This view really makes me wonder have you ever actually been to Sydney or Melbourne and driven around the cities a bit - actually gone out to the industrial area's etc and seen the scale of them compared to what you would be used to in a regional town?

Where to start????? Let's see, off the top of my head are is a list of industries that all produce something that are located in Sydney/Melbourne:

- Manufacturing (a large portion of manufactured goods are exported too). Below list is just based on things that I personally have seen the factory for, or bought knowing where it was made, or where someone I know works or has worked etc etc, and therefore know that they make this stuff in Sydney or Melbourne or immediate surrounds somewhere:

* Cars and other vehicles
* Car/Vehicle spare parts
* lawn mowers
* Foodstuffs (processed/packaged etc)
* Trains/Locomotives
* Agricultural machinery
* Furniture
* Textiles
* Explosives
* Building materials
* Plastics
* Steel
* Medical and surgical equiment
* Motors/Generators/Pumps
* Electrical goods
* White-goods
* Gaming machines (think Aristocrat)
* Jewelery
* Sporting goods
* Electronics
* Pharmaceuticals
* This list just goes on and on and on.....

- Education Where do you think geologists/mining engineers etc get educated? How would the mining and energy sectors go with out them? Where are the major universities of this country?

- Telecommunications Do you use your mobile phone? Fixed line? Where do you think all the major exchange hubs are etc that connect Australia together and to the rest of the world?

- Datacommunications (ISPs etc) - you know this new fangled internet thing we are using right now? Where do you think the bulk of the gear is located that makes this thing work? Who do you think put it there? Who keeps it running? Who designed the equipment and the networks in the first place?

- IT Massive industry that provides huge amounts of services both locally and also internationally to generate export income

- Medical and Health Technology and Services Think major hospitals etc + think companies like Cochlear and Resmed who export home grown medical technology throughout the world. If you needed major complex surgery (neurosurgery etc) where do you think you might end up?

- Defence Eg: shipyards - largest dry dock in Southern Hemisphere is in Sydney Harbour! Many contractors producing all sorts of things needed for defence force are based on Sydney/Melbourne

- Banking Services Allocating the countries capital! They might be out of favour but try running an economy without banks.....

- Financial Services Managing/investing the countries money, insuring the countries goods/property/people

- Stock exchange Who built and runs the good old ASX? SFE? Etc? Where do you think they live? How would you go trading without that?

- Building/construction/engineering industry Well the products of this industry are there for the eye to see - city buildings, factories, houses, bridges, roads....

- Legal Services Even resource companies need law firms (think contract negotiation for bulk commodoties with Chinese government)! Let alone everybody/everyone else!

- Transport Rail, truck, ships

- Petrol Refineries Yep, try running your mine truck without fuel....

- Import/Export hubs for manufactured goods

- Entertainment/Leisure/Media Movies, TV shows, TV stations, radio stations, music industry. Life would be pretty dull without all the people who produce all the output of this industry! Generates export $$$ as well.

- Advertising
- Newspapers/Journalism
- Government
- Tourism Practically every tourist visiting AU visits Sydney - export income!
- Science/Research (CSIRO etc etc)

- Retailing Let's not forget this behemoth! Pretty hard to have prosperity without a retail industry.....

- Numerous related service industries that are all essential for any/all of the above including mining/agriculture
- Numerous other exporting service industries

This list goes on and on - it's actually quite hard to cover the work of 8.5M people!!!. I quick web search found this website: ( http://www.ibisworld.com.au/industry/home.aspx#aIndustryList ). It provides links to reports on various industry sectors and the major players with revenue/export figures, location of businesses etc etc. See how many industries lead you to a Sydney/Melbourne hub vs one in North Queensland!

As for what net effect to these cities (and all the people and industries based therein) have on the prosperity of the country? They CREATE the majority of the prosperity - that's the effect!

Without Sydney and Melbourne Australia would be nothing. Again, that's not to downplay the importance of regional area's and industries, especially the resource/energy and ag sectors which export a large proportion of their output, but honestly, if you took Sydney and Melbourne away, these regional industries would just not exist. And what's more, even if they did, the countries prosperity would be far lower as most of the other industries I listed would not exist.

For a stock trading/investment site, the low level of general knowledge about our $1Trillion+ pa economy here astounds me sometimes.....

Cheers,

Beej

 

[nunthewiser]

ahem.


and where do all thos raw materials come from to produce said items ?

 

[Aurum]

ahem.
and where do all thos raw materials come from to produce said items ?

China. We send then shiploads of dirt and they send back raw materials.

Mike.
Edit, sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[Soft Dough]

Your list of "industries" is extremely questionable, and I think you fail to recognise that we import a vast majority of manufactured goods.

A lot of those industries are to do with consumption = net negative, or are presented with an inference that it is actually produced in Australia eg pharmaceuticals, machinery etc lol OR are heavily subsidised as they run at a loss.

eg your port in sydney.... does it bring stuff in or send stuff out... lol

Oh and thanks for acknowledging that the industry that is present is just ancillary support services for rural and regional activities, you know, the driving force of the economy.

I must say one thing to put things into perspective. You say taking away melbourne and sydney would ruin Australia. What would happen to Australia's economy if you took away mining and agriculture? The same services could be run in any city in Australia if required.

A lot of services you say are support services, and do not directly generate any income for the country, oh and btw, there are hospitals, telephone exchanges, supermarkets, clean water and manufacturing in regional areas, they just don't need so much of it to support people in their unproductive consumption habits, service requirements and job activities.

 

[kincella]

sounds like it all happens on Planet Townsville.....unbelievable.....

 

[Beej]

sounds like it all happens on Planet Townsville.....unbelievable.....

Yep - I give up! I'll just slink back to whatever I was doing which is clearly of no net economic value whatsoever as I'm doing it in Sydney!

 

[Soft Dough]

sounds like it all happens on Planet Townsville.....unbelievable.....

not all.... just most of it

and Tsv is just an example, I am referring to many regional and rural areas, and their relevance as a barometer for what is really happening, perhaps some city slickers need to go to a real export port and see where the money for australia comes in.

 

[Beej]

perhaps some city slickers need to go to a real export port and see where the money for australia comes in.

Ok I have to make one more comment on this! As it seems nobody is willing to let THE FACTS get in the way of their regional town myopic viewpoint:

From http://www.innovation.gov.au/Section/AboutDIISR/FactSheets/Pages/Australia'sExportsFactSheet.aspx

Total industry exports (current prices) totalled $279.3 billion over 2008—this is 140.0 per cent higher than the total for 1998.

* Agricultural exports accounted for 3.8 per cent of total exports in 2008, down from 8.5 per cent in 1998.
* Mining exports accounted for 39.2 per cent of total exports in 2008, well above the 18.8 per cent in 1998.
* Manufacturing exports accounted for 33.8 per cent of total exports in 2008, down from 45.8 per cent in 1998.
* Services exports accounted for 19.5 per cent of total exports in 2008, slightly down from 23.5 per cent in 1998.
* Exports not specifically classified to an industry (due to not readily being classified and/or confidential) account for the remainder (approximately 3 per cent of total exports).

Ie, in 2008, while agricultural and resource exports totalled 44% of AUs total exports, manufactured goods + services + other accounted for the remaining 56%

The majority of these manufactured goods and services exports originate from the industrious folks of Sydney and Melbourne - so please don't tell us that we have never seen what an "exporting" port look's like.....

PS: And prior to the mining boom of the last few years the picture looked even better re the contribution of all us city-slickers, as mining exports as a proportion of exports have grown significantly in that time. So take your prosperity and enjoy it, as it has MOSTLY been created down here.....unsurprisingly given this is where 8.5M people live....

Beej

 

[kincella]

Beej....on another forum, which I no longer visit, we encountered similar groups who would rather sidetrack the discussion to, IMO, rather ridiculous and outlandish remarks, of a miniscule nature, then demand we reply and provide a response or an answer to such claims. Some posters were actually akin to stalking some of us, with hundreds of posts...it appeared they just wanted to argue, argue about anything....the point being to deter discussion away from the facts....
in the end I just gave up...my time is far too valuable...
maybe they are the same posters....
I could not believe the trouble you went to today....and wondered what are you dealing with here....??????
I suspect it will fall on deaf ears....
just detracts the thread away from any intelligent discussion
at least you provided a brief for the young ones out there, in case they did not know, or aware of what we australians do here...
cheers
as another blogger, now missing, Clark Kent would say....the Hoaxometer is ticking over, running full strength today

 

[Trembling Hand]

For a stock trading/investment site, the low level of general knowledge about our $1Trillion+ pa economy here astounds me sometimes.....

You should of just left it at this.

Not sure why it surprises you.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Yes, the mines with future contracts tied down are ok, and also the ones getting the top soil scraped and infrastructure for the ramp up again in 2-3 years time.

Once Queensland approves uranium export we will boom again. Some of my Labor mates from the Right have it on their agenda.

gg

Just to get this back on track I'll quote my original thoughts on how I see the recession panning out in North Queensland.

Manufacturing and services are important, I agree, but in my opinion it will be a resources led recovery.

gg

 

[GumbyLearner]

Just to get this back on track I'll quote my original thoughts on how I see the recession panning out in North Queensland.

Manufacturing and services are important, I agree, but in my opinion it will be a resources led recovery.

gg

I'll second that.

And plenty of manufacturing jobs fail-out funded to go offshore.