Recession etc, are things really that bad?

[Aussiejeff]

Exactly. There's no point propping up failed businesses that will never work in their current modes. Let them die and move on.

Likewise there's no point propping up a failed ideology. The whole deregulation / privatisation / globalisation thing failed nearly a century ago and seems to be failing again now. Let it die and stop trying to bring back an idea that clearly doesn't work.

But "globalization" is "politically correct".

For "globalization" to die, "political correctness" would have to die first.

 

[chops_a_must]

Exactly. There's no point propping up failed businesses that will never work in their current modes. Let them die and move on.

Likewise there's no point propping up a failed ideology. The whole deregulation / privatisation / globalisation thing failed nearly a century ago and seems to be failing again now. Let it die and stop trying to bring back an idea that clearly doesn't work.

Seems exactly the point John Ralston Saul makes in 'The Collapse of Globalism'. Might be worth a read for you.

Never have seen the point in privatising things that make money for the public.

 

[numbercruncher]

Wonderful to see more thinking people recognising the Globalisation experiment for what it is

 

[chops_a_must]

Wonderful to see more thinking people recognising the Globalisation experiment for what it is

Nothing at all wrong with globalisation per se, it's how you use it that counts.

 

[numbercruncher]

Nothing at all wrong with globalisation per se, it's how you use it that counts.

I look way way past the individual and self interest

 

[Happy]

From ABC, 20 May 2009
JAPAN'S ECONOMY CRASHES BY RECORD AMOUNT
By Online business reporter Michael Janda

Japan's economy shrank by 4 per cent in the first three months of the year - an annualised fall of 15.2 per cent.
It is a record fall, and confirms Japan is in its worst recession since World War Two.
However, the news is not completely dire: economists had predicted a steeper annualised fall of 16.1 per cent, and many analysts are saying there are some signs that Japan is turning the corner back towards economic growth.
Japanese consumer confidence hit a 10 month high in April, exports rose in March compared to February and factory production had its first monthly increase since September.
Share investors in Japan also believe the worst has passed, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 32 per cent from a 26-year low set on March 10.

Austrade's chief economist, Tim Harcourt, believes that the major east Asian economies are displaying "bamboo shoots" of recovery, just as many observers have described 'green shoots' in the US.
"Industrial production in China, Japan and Korea is turning around a bit," he said.
"The last Japanese manufacturing data was reasonable, so perhaps this is another sign of moving from the great recession to the great recovery, albeit slowly."
Japan's ongoing problem is that it will be recovering from what is now a very low base and, even at a rapid pace of growth, will take years to recover what has been lost in the last year.
Most of Japan's major exporters are not forecasting a rapid recovery, with most predicting stabilising sales and continued losses throughout this year.
The Nikkei share index is up a modest 0.3 per cent this morning to 9,316, and the Yen is stronger against the Australian dollar, despite Japan's continued economic weakness.

We better get used to word recession, when population and industry gets ahead of itself in a finite world, without possibility of immediate expansion to other planets in our system.

Sooner we accept the necessary steps to stabilise our existence the better.

Simply if we keep thinking of % GDP rise year after year, sooner or later we will create hockey stick, unsustainable economy.

On this Forum I can use comparison to unsustainability of parabolic trend, as 5% this year is smaller than 5% next year or 5% year after that.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: Recession etc, are things really that bad?

Hmmm. Japan reports that it's economy shrank by a much-worse-than-expected annualised 15% last quarter. The worst ever contraction in annualised terms after the previous Q's shocker!

Surely, that BAD, BAD, BAD news from Japan must hit our economy too?

Yet our Shtock Market merely shrugs it's shoulders, utters "Meh!" and continues gaily dancing The Boomtown Jig while popping the champers.

So, things really aren't that bad at all if news like that can't even prod a response!

Maybe KRudd'nCo and their mates from Transparent Treasuries Ltd are right and the Lil' Ozzie Battler IS the best gig in town?

 

[Happy]

...
Surely, that BAD, BAD, BAD news from Japan must hit our economy too?

Yet our Shtock Market merely shrugs it's shoulders, utters "Meh!" and continues gaily dancing The Boomtown Jig while popping the champers.

So, things really aren't that bad at all if news like that can't even prod a response!

Maybe KRudd'nCo and their mates from Transparent Treasuries Ltd are right and the Lil' Ozzie Battler IS the best gig in town?

It could be a sucker rally too, just give it time it needs.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It could be a sucker rally too, just give it time it needs.

It is a sucker rally Happy.

Things are getting very very bad in North Queensland.

Projects closing down or going bust, all separate from the clowns at Storm Financial.

Real people who work and produce wealth for themselves and others going backwards.

Contracts being cancelled.

It is a suckers rally, but then there is one born every minute.

Just look at MQg's shareprice over the last few months, doubled. On what?

On financial five card tricks.

We are in for a depression, because if North Queensland goes down, god help the rest of you.

gg

 

[Real1ty]

It is a suckers rally, but then there is one born every minute.

Just look at MQg's shareprice over the last few months, doubled. On what?

Why does it matter what the "Suckers" doubled their money on?

Imo the suckers are the ones that have stayed out of this rally.

Trade the trend and make money or stay out and wail about recessions and depressions and miss out on it.

Who are the smart ones.....

 

[kincella]

The world knows Japan has been a basket case for years...so who cares now ?
the media believe they need to sell some more bad news.....like the boy who cried wolf...eventually no one takes any notice

 

[-Bevo-]

It is a sucker rally Happy.

Things are getting very very bad in North Queensland.

Projects closing down or going bust, all separate from the clowns at Storm Financial.

Real people who work and produce wealth for themselves and others going backwards.

Contracts being cancelled.

It is a suckers rally, but then there is one born every minute.

Just look at MQg's shareprice over the last few months, doubled. On what?

On financial five card tricks.

We are in for a depression, because if North Queensland goes down, god help the rest of you.

gg

Whats the saying you know its a recession when your neighbor looses his job, well my neighbour lost his job few weeks back and my parents (retired) who also live in Townsville there neighbour also lost his job only recently.

 

[Trevor_S]

It is a sucker rally Happy.

Things are getting very very bad in North Queensland.
...
We are in for a depression, because if North Queensland goes down, god help the rest of you.

Interestingly my (Townsville) business is up and I still struggle to find staff. Who woulda thunk it

 

[Beej]

Just look at MQg's shareprice over the last few months, doubled. On what?

On financial five card tricks.

We are in for a depression, because if North Queensland goes down, god help the rest of you.

But why do you think the market fell 55% over the past year and a half? It's nowhere near back to growth/booming economy levels - not even close! The real economy can continue to tank hard and corporate earnings/profits can continue to fall, but the market might still go UP, because massive earnings/profit falls have been priced in. In Macquaries case, they were sold down massively on fear of potential insolvency - once it becomes more certain that insolvency is unlikely, then of course their stock price will rebound strongly back to a level more in line with their expected (and heavily downgraded) earnings. Remember they are still trading at 1/3 of their highs!

You can't just say "well the real economy/unemployment etc is getting worse so therefore the market should be falling and this is a suckers rally". Unless you want to miss out on some serious trading opportunities.

PS: And since when has North Queensland been the linch pin of the AU economy???? I'd be watching NSW and Vic generally first for signs of recovery or further deterioration as those two states represent more than half the AU economy just there, plus obviously watch the the mining/resource sector closely.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Temjin]

The world knows Japan has been a basket case for years...so who cares now ?
the media believe they need to sell some more bad news.....like the boy who cried wolf...eventually no one takes any notice

Unfortunately, the world doesn't seem to remember (or really cared) what CAUSED Japan to go into their basket in the first place.

Let see...

- Massive boom in share prices and property prices. (the property was the fun part, try buying a small piece of land at peak of the boom in the imperial palace, you will have to exchange the New York city for it!)
- Over-leveraged banks' balanced sheets
- Bust then major stimulus effort through bailouts and infrastructure building that incurred a public debt of almost 200% of their GDP (LAST YEAR ONE TOO) over the last 2 decades.
- The good thing is that the Japanese, like all Asians, are culturally biased toward saving for the hard day. So their purchasing power has never been that seriously eroded because of such savings. In addition, massive trade surplus and foreign reserve also maintained their ability to have such high public debt.

Some of them sounds familiar to us?

With a lack of private savings and a sure bet of more deficit from the government, we may be worse off than the Japanese if the current economic policies do not change.

 

[Soft Dough]

PS: And since when has North Queensland been the linch pin of the AU economy???? I'd be watching NSW and Vic generally first for signs of recovery or further deterioration as those two states represent more than half the AU economy just there, plus obviously watch the the mining/resource sector closely.

Cheers,

Beej

Townsville has to be one of the most stable cities in australia, large government, health, defence, mining, port.

If townsville is feeling it ( and from what my sources say, it is starting to look interesting ) then the places like melbourne, sydney, brisbane, and other cities with questionable industry are probably in a situation far worse than they realise.

Remember that an awful lot of the country's prosperity comes out of rural and regional areas, and that they heavily subsidise capital cities.

 

[kincella]

you crack me up....what are you smoking.....what a ludicrous proposition....

Townsville with a population of under 100k is the linchpin of the OZ economy...compared to Sydney 4.5 mill and Melb 3.8 mill.....

hehehehehe....I can see your true colours shining through.....go on .....
you really need to ........aarrghh...what the heck...
hahahahaha....its too funny....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

you crack me up....what are you smoking.....what a ludicrous proposition....

Townsville with a population of under 100k is the linchpin of the OZ economy...compared to Sydney 4.5 mill and Melb 3.8 mill.....

hehehehehe....I can see your true colours shining through.....go on .....
you really need to ........aarrghh...what the heck...
hahahahaha....its too funny....

And Lagos has a huge population as well and its just as stuffed as Sydney.

What does all that Sydney population do? except work at no hope shows like Macquarie Bank and failing IT companies?

By the way Townsville has a population of 180,000, and electricity 24/7.

Sydney is full of old money and new thrash and a lot of disaffected good folk planning to move to North Queensland.

And there is more to North Queensland than just Townsville.

gg

gg

 

[Soft Dough]

Townsville with a population of under 100k is the linchpin of the OZ economy...compared to Sydney 4.5 mill and Melb 3.8 mill.....

If you are referring to my post, please quote where I said it was the linchpin. If anything it is a much better barometer ( perhaps this is what you meant? ) than cities such as the gold coast ( population 600k) which is really up to it, and is just terrible at the moment, and I guarantee that the Gold coast is a drain on the Australian economy, even in boom times.

No, but it surely punches FAR above its 160k+ population in what it generates for the australian economy ( like a lot of north queensland cities like Mackay, for example which is quite a bit smaller than sydney, but generates squillions for the Australian economy ), but it is a great barometer for what is happening, as it is ridiculously stable during downturns usually, as it has diverse industry and high employment AND participation rates.

I always find it amusing when people who live in capital cities believe that capitals are anything but a burden on the economy. Seriously if you cannot see that mining and agriculture drive our economy, then it is you that are delusional.

 

[moXJO]

Was talking to a local mine worker where I am (coal) and he said they were flat out and putting on another 138 people. People still seem to be spending here.