Recent mining stocks rally

[professor_frink]

hi all, just wondering what everyone thinks about the current rally over the past couple of weeks in alot of the big mining companies. Can't say that I've seen them move up this much this quickly before.
Anyone have any comments?

 

[mlennox]

maybe because all the stuff there mining is going up in

 

[professor_frink]

maybe because all the stuff there mining is going up in

well obviously
I was refering to the degree of the move. Since the CRB index bottomed in it's recent correction, it's moved up less than 6%.
Compare that with some of the big mining companies recently, and it starts looking a little odd to me.
BHP has moved up about 25%
RIO has gone up just under 20%
WPL is up about 18%
ZFX about 40%
LHG about 35%
Looking at the charts of these companies, this doesn't look like it can go on at this rate for much longer

 

[redandgreen]

if you are chasing hot returns where else to invest atm...?

 

[Fab]

I tend to agree that it won't go for ever specially the rally in the Uranium mining stocks but the question is when and at what level will it stop. You don't risk much if you can invest in a stock with good fundamental for the long term. The problem is not everyone invest that way

 

[professor_frink]

Long term, I am definitely still a commodities bull, but IMHO the last couple of weeks have gotten a bit silly, as I was trying to say in my previous post. The companies seem to be running ahead of the metals they're mining!
As I'm a short term trader, I was looking at it from a shorter term point of view.

 

[redandgreen]

there will a correction very soon ..... the bull is tiring.
Be patient... imo the medium term outlook is still good

 

[professor_frink]

there will a correction very soon ..... the bull is tiring.
Be patient... imo the medium term outlook is still good

:iagree:
Although I'm starting to scale back some of my long positions for the short term.
Want to wait and see what develops over the next couple of weeks whilst still keeping some exposure to it, because I can be wrong, and usually am when I start telling people what I think!

 

[michael_selway]

well obviously
I was refering to the degree of the move. Since the CRB index bottomed in it's recent correction, it's moved up less than 6%.
Compare that with some of the big mining companies recently, and it starts looking a little odd to me.
BHP has moved up about 25%
RIO has gone up just under 20%
WPL is up about 18%
ZFX about 40%
LHG about 35%
Looking at the charts of these companies, this doesn't look like it can go on at this rate for much longer

If you are talking about returns at current prices, from your list above, 1 will continue to do better imo....

thx

MS

 

[Fab]

I guess my main worry is that most of these mining company are still in exploration mode and are not generating much revenues therefore their share price rising is purely speculative and we know what will then happen to these shares

 

[professor_frink]

If you are talking about returns at current prices, from your list above, 1 will continue to do better imo....

thx

MS

Sorry michael,I'm not quite sure what your getting at

 

[Julia]

Sorry michael,I'm not quite sure what your getting at

Michael:

me, neither.

Julia

 

[rederob]

What's "recent" mean?
This rally has been running for several years.
It's in its early stages.
There's another 15-20 years left in the present commodity bull - retraces being part of the fun.
And national building for no less than 2 billion in Asia will make the previous boom, centred on 100 million in Japan, look like a kindergarten party.
Take off your blinkers folks, as the race isn't a straight line.

 

[nizar]

What's "recent" mean?
This rally has been running for several years.
It's in its early stages.
There's another 15-20 years left in the present commodity bull - retraces being part of the fun.
And national building for no less than 2 billion in Asia will make the previous boom, centred on 100 million in Japan, look like a kindergarten party.
Take off your blinkers folks, as the race isn't a straight line.

Agree rederob...

People seem to forget that commodities were in a 20-year bear market from 1980-2000.... now they start to go up for a few years and every1 screams bubble....

A long way to go yet...

 

[michael_selway]

Agree rederob...

People seem to forget that commodities were in a 20-year bear market from 1980-2000.... now they start to go up for a few years and every1 screams bubble....

A long way to go yet...

Yep "secular bull market"

Julia, Profess, ZFX was what i was talking about

Nizar only stopping this bull besides birdflu or terror, is maybe 2008 after Beijing Olympics, maybe a slow down in demand

Do u think Africa will ever be like a china an india today?

thx

MS

 

[professor_frink]

What's "recent" mean?
This rally has been running for several years.
It's in its early stages.
There's another 15-20 years left in the present commodity bull - retraces being part of the fun.
And national building for no less than 2 billion in Asia will make the previous boom, centred on 100 million in Japan, look like a kindergarten party.
Take off your blinkers folks, as the race isn't a straight line.

wasn't crying bubble yet folks sorry for sounding like it!

redrob, think you and I very different ideas on what a rally is. I think I should have put a disclaimer on my first post similar to bullmarket-
"please be aware that the professor is a short term, active trader whose main objective is leveraged capital gains and I am not an investor. Any views I express are only talking about the coming fortnight or month at the most, and should not be taken as recommendations"

Sorry for not being clear on that folks. Frinky's an idiot.
michael, I know what your saying now! and agree.
ZFX- it's putting my kids through college

 

[michael_selway]

wasn't crying bubble yet folks sorry for sounding like it!

redrob, think you and I very different ideas on what a rally is. I think I should have put a disclaimer on my first post similar to bullmarket-
"please be aware that the professor is a short term, active trader whose main objective is leveraged capital gains and I am not an investor. Any views I express are only talking about the coming fortnight or month at the most, and should not be taken as recommendations"

Sorry for not being clear on that folks. Frinky's an idiot.
michael, I know what your saying now! and agree.
ZFX- it's putting my kids through college

ZFX, omg 4 directors bought on market on 31/03/03!

 

[professor_frink]

they're obviously keen then!
looks like we are gunna have another good one today.
Think I'm gunna be dancing around my office today singing about zinc and gold! I might do it in the nude as well.
Have a good day michael

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

BHP's run from $23.50 to Almost $30 in less than a month while not unexpected, give the benefits it will reap from Uranium + that Huge Jacala well which could hold 1billion barrels of oil but will most likely ie 95% + be a duster is probaly assisting in the spec appeal,

But still for this Giant to increase its mkt cap by like 30% in 1 month is scary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[redandgreen]

it seems a shame to take profit with BHP atm.
its a juggernaut that might keep going for a while yet
Agree though that 30% rise in the last month seems a little bit rich..