Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Rare Earths

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qldfrog said:
the sector was not excited...
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Critical Minerals Facility .... established by govt. ... and maybe try to pick winners. Usually, the choices are not the best candidates, on past history. Already got NAIF splashing the cash around, in related exercises.

Also .... "Australia's resources producers" ... I would prefer "Australian resources producers"

$2bill in loans over 10 years. ... that's $200M a year. Not a lot
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Critical Minerals Facility .... established by govt. ... and maybe try to pick winners. Usually, the choices are not the best candidates, on past history. Already got NAIF splashing the cash around, in related exercises.

Also .... "Australia's resources producers" ... I would prefer "Australian resources producers"

$2bill in loans over 10 years. ... that's $200M a year. Not a lot
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I would agree.

Although, very little government money, if any contributed to the success of the internal combustion engine.

It will keep the voters voting.

Imo alliances and agreements with states/entities in North America and Europe will determine RE companies' prices in Australia.

gg
 
waterbottle said:
Not

Not sure why they're reporting 'total heavy minerals'.... Seem to be hiding the fact that only 2% is rare earths I. E. 8.6Mt which is small compared to 90Mt at Nechalacho
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THM is different to TREO, isn't it? They're reporting REE as part of the THM assemblage. Maybe a difficult comparison. HYM is Titanium minerals (rutile, ilmenite) and Zircon along with REE.
 
Sean K said:
What are these grades like for TREO and the scale of the project?
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Certainly some tidy grades there. Currently 18 m/t @ 1.15% TREO New drilling grades show an increase in their baseline grade

I always refer grades back to VML as that's the only RE stock I own. Their Upper Tardiff Zone is +90 m/t @ 1.46% TREO (last year's numbers)

Rare-X has about 1/4 the Market Cap of VML Definitely some positives to consider.
 
for a general view on Rare Earths, i found this content to be of use, and remarkably free of selective bias:

What I learned from the ANU Rare Earth Conference (REECON)​

by Kingsley Jones of Jevons Global

For [Jones], as an investor, there were three key takeaways:
  • The variety and scale of Australian REE mineralization is much larger than .. expected
  • Mining firms at all stages from exploration to production are innovating rapidly
  • Australian geoscience is world class in this area and actively learning from real projects
There remain many issues that need to be solved to build this industry:
  • Offtake agreements remain a challenge with China remaining the dominant buyer
  • Debt finance from government has stepped up but equity finance is still an obstacle
  • Rare earth deposits are complex and skills in mineralogy, petrology and processing are key

I tried to find the original, (but not too much effort) so the link is from LiveWire Markets and found here:

What I learnt from the ANU Rare Earth Conference (REECON)

This is a busy time of year for me. There is the Australian reporting season, the US third quarter reporting season, and the conference season. Last week was especially hectic for me with the annual IMARC Mines and Money Conference in Sydney, and new kid of the block for...
www.livewiremarkets.com

The ANU Conference can be found here:

Home

The Australian Rare Earth Conference brings together industry, government and academia to discuss the state of the Australian Rare Earth industry.
earthsciences.anu.edu.au
 
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Dona Ferentes said:
There isn't a specific Critical Minerals thread, so I'll plonk this here.


View attachment 157395
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Yep, the narrative since COVID 2020 has been supply chain security, although 3 years on I don't know if there's been much progress.

Several lithium miners exist but the overwhelming majority are not yet producing. And even if they did, the refiners are mostly in China!
Rare earths is another sorrowful story...
 
Was looking again at AR3, it's still back in that gap up zone that it quickly returned to after it spiked. Got doubts about management friendliness to retailers. The placement to sophs and insts through Cannacord so soon after the big announcement, followed by heavy selling. Also they don't keep the market informed of their current share and option issuance.
I would like to put my chips on Iluka (ILU) as the most likely to get it done but the chart is already heavily bought.

"Via the company's development of Australia's first fully integrated rare earths refinery at Eneabba in Western Australia, Iluka is set to become a globally material supplier of separated rare earth oxides."
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waterbottle said:
Yep, the narrative since COVID 2020 has been supply chain security, although 3 years on I don't know if there's been much progress....
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...

A new report issued by the U.S. Department of Energy, titled "Critical Materials Assessment 2023," is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019. It identifies the materials critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies and evaluates potential supply risks associated with them.

Key Findings from the 2023 Critical Materials Assessment:
  1. Critical Materials for Clean Energy: The report identifies several materials crucial for clean energy technologies, including rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in EV motors and wind turbine generators, materials used in batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) and stationary storage, platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, gallium used in LEDs, major materials like aluminum, copper, nickel, and silicon, and electrical steel used in transformers and EV motors.
  2. Short-term and Medium-term Criticality: In the short term (2020-2025), seven materials were identified as critical, and these include dysprosium, neodymium, gallium, graphite, cobalt, terbium, and iridium. Over the medium term (2025-2035), materials like nickel, platinum, magnesium, SiC, and praseodymium become critical due to their roles in batteries and vehicle lightweighting.
  3. Market Evolution since 2019: The global surge in electric vehicle adoption has led to increased demand for materials like lithium-ion batteries, rare earth magnets, electrical steel, and power electronics. Offshore wind capacity has doubled, increasing the demand for rare earth magnets. Grid stationary storage is growing rapidly but is bottlenecked by supplies of lithium, nickel, and graphite.\
  4. Importance of Domestic Manufacturing: To mitigate supply risks, the report suggests the U.S. must strengthen its domestic manufacturing sector and leverage the latest scientific advancements in material extraction, substitution, and recycling.
  5. Need for Ongoing Assessment: The report calls for continuous updates to the assessment every few years to reflect changing market conditions, technological advancements, and global policies.
The report highlights the critical role materials play in the clean energy transition and emphasises the need for strategic planning and actions to secure a sustainable and resilient supply chain...
.
..... So, nothing's changed.
 
Philanthropic goals such as saving the world from climate disaster take a back seat when people are struggling to make ends meet
 
waterbottle said:
Philanthropic goals such as saving the world from climate disaster take a back seat when people are struggling to make ends meet
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Especially when real scientists know it is pure BS and are actually advising their leaders ..another non military weapon for China...
Brasil should worry as the current monopolist supplier..

China unearths new strategic rare metal ore in Inner Mongolia

Scientists confirm the discovery of new type of niobium ore in world’s largest rare earth deposit.
www.scmp.com
Directly from the CCP paper
 
According to Oil Price.com , rare Earths are about to head north(price wise that is).

Rare Earth Prices Skyrocket Following Burmese Mining Suspension​

By Metal Miner - Oct 08, 2023, 10:00 AM CDT
  • Myanmar's Kachin State, supplying 38% of China's rare earth imports, halted mining, causing an immediate spike in global prices.
  • The long-term effects of this suspension might lead to scarcity, illicit mining, and environmental issues in the region.
  • China's economic slowdown combined with geopolitical risks highlights the need for diversified sourcing in the rare earth market.
The Rare Earths MMI (Monthly Metals Index) witnessed yet another steep increase month-over-month. Indeed, supply disruptions remain a massive concern in the rare earths industry, so rare earth magnets and other materials witnessed renewed bullish strength across the board over recent months.

In August, market worries arose prior to a planned environmental inspection of China’s Jiangxi province. The Chinese region serves as a major location for Chinese rare earth supplies. Along with this, Chinese stimulus efforts managed to boost rare earth production (although this cannot add long-term support to the index).

Mick
 

( from  @rcw1 in lynas thread)​

​

Australia bets big on rare earths after China sparks panic​

Western governments want to break China’s stranglehold on the processing of rare earths into metals and magnets vital for modern living and defence. Australia is key to that. Can it work? The recent collapse in prices for key critical minerals is accelerating attempts by Western governments to use cheap loans, grants and tax breaks to break China’s stranglehold on the processing of rare earths. Success is far from guaranteed. But taxpayer funds are now the common ingredient to boost the processing of rare earths into the metals and magnets vital for everything from mobile phones to wind turbines to advanced defence technology.

The Australian government’s announcement of $840 million worth of cheap funding and grants to progress Arafura’s proposed rare earths mine and refinery in the Northern Territory is part of this global battle. It follows the Morrison government giving Iluka Resources a $1.25 billion loan to build a refinery in Western Australia to separate rare earth oxides. While Canberra has nothing like the financial firepower of the US, it is under growing pressure to also subsidise intermediate processing as well as mining of rare earths. This new push inevitably brings up old questions about backing particular companies with taxpayer money – particularly given they may still not be financially viable anyway. It’s no surprise that first production at Iluka’s refinery is delayed a year until 2026 while estimated building costs have increased by several hundred million dollars. What is not disputed is the urgent need for a strategic counter to China’s control – developed over decades – of processing technology and skills required to create the crucial metals and magnets essential for modern living and national security.
US determination to compete with China and to derisk supply chains ensures some financial support will continue no matter who is president.
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Just how much governments will pay and how feasible these alternative supply chains in all critical minerals remains a gamble. Final investment decisions are still a way off in most cases, even before protracted delays in building.
The 17 rare earth elements in the periodic table are a subset of the general category of critical minerals and found in minute quantities of much larger clay or hard rock mineral deposits. Their grade – typically measured in parts per million in clay or a small percentage in rock – is just one aspect of the challenge. Rare earth elements are neither rare nor that valuable in themselves, particularly at current prices.
But panicked Western governments belatedly realised their vulnerability to Beijing’s ability to withdraw supply of the vital metals and magnets that result from processing them.

Why Australia is a player​

Complacency – compounded by the lure of China’s cheap prices – meant other countries had not even tried to master complex chemistry processes and technology needed to turn concentrates into essential ingredients for modern living and defence needs. Australia is a player not only because of its abundance of resources but also because its close relationship with the US means Australian projects or their American customers may be eligible for US government support. That can include access to generous subsidies under the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act. US determination to compete with China and to derisk supply chains ensures some financial support will continue no matter who is president.

This explains why the US Export Import Bank, for example, has just provided non-binding pledges of loans to two small Australian rare earths companies, Australian Strategic Minerals and Meteoric Resources, to help them develop mines in NSW and Brazil respectively. Lynas, which has Australia’s only operating rare earths mine, has a $US258 million grant from the US Department of Defence to build a refinery in Texas.
Angus Barker, chair of Australian Rare Earths and former ministerial adviser and investment banker, says rare earths are at the intersection of two megatrends globally – decarbonisation and geo-politics.

“That’s why governments are so interested and why they are throwing money at them,” he says. “They want secure, reliable alternatives.”

Price collapse makes them just clay deposits again​

But the experience of Australian Rare Earths (AR3), which plans to eventually develop a clay-based project on the South Australian border, is typical of challenges facing Australian hopefuls.
As prices and recognition of critical minerals surged a few years ago, a host of speculative Australian investors and companies, including AR3, bet on rare earths as part of a new resources boom.
Depending on grade, the collapse in prices means it makes no commercial sense for most of these proposed mines to even consider developing their hard rock or clay deposits in Australia right now – perhaps indefinitely.
That’s apart from the costs and complexity of developing domestic downstream processing beyond producing basic concentrate.

But although less than expected global demand, increased supply and China’s manipulation of prices are curbing rare earths developments – along with lithium and nickel – entrepreneurial enthusiasm about the potential remains.
“In a tough environment, you focus on areas you can control – like opportunities in higher grade elements to find a path forward,” says Barker. Some Australian-owned projects are not even in Australia. Meteoric Resources is not the only Australian company with a project in Brazil.

In the US, American Rare Earths (ARR) is listed on the ASX but focused on its attempt to develop a rare earths mine in the mining-friendly state of Wyoming. After releasing its scoping study this month, its managing director, Donald Swartz, is in Australia to talk to investors about the benefits of its particular allanite minerals geology in Wyoming enabling the company to apply simpler, cheaper conventional technology to develop its rare earths resource.
As well as the ability to access US tax credits, US agencies are also helping finance a joint venture research effort into more efficient processing technologies. Swartz maintains there’s more understanding of rare earths among Australian investors than in his home country.

Yet despite Australia’s reputation for efficient mining, it has far less experience in the advanced, complex and extremely expensive processing of even intermediate material. It will be a reality test of Australia’s ambitions.
 


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