QRN - QR National
- Thread starter gsnz1
- Start date
-
- Tags
- qr national qrn
- Joined
- 19 January 2010
- Posts
- 428
- Reactions
- 0
Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?
The only discount is for employees. QLD residents get a preference only.
The only discount is for employees. QLD residents get a preference only.
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,413
- Reactions
- 18,061
Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?
price bracket $2.5 to $2.8 for individuals: total value of $6.8 to $7.6 billions
remember the last offer by the coal consortium was at 4.8 I would expect a max real value of around 5 to 6 billions;
This is overpriced, still has a huge qld gov involvment (up to 40% shares) and for 3 years will have to carry overemployment;
moreover just $3 billions debts;
I will not touch this one;
You can gamble and make a profit (may happen) but you can not buy on value IMHO.
price bracket $2.5 to $2.8 for individuals: total value of $6.8 to $7.6 billions
remember the last offer by the coal consortium was at 4.8 I would expect a max real value of around 5 to 6 billions;
This is overpriced, still has a huge qld gov involvment (up to 40% shares) and for 3 years will have to carry overemployment;
moreover just $3 billions debts;
I will not touch this one;
You can gamble and make a profit (may happen) but you can not buy on value IMHO.
- Joined
- 7 September 2010
- Posts
- 4
- Reactions
- 0
Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?
From newsdotcomdotau's article "QR National investors to pay up to $3 a share" 10/10/10
So the "discount" in question is more bonus shares when compared to other states.
From newsdotcomdotau's article "QR National investors to pay up to $3 a share" 10/10/10
So the "discount" in question is more bonus shares when compared to other states.
Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?
On the one hand we have Bligh talking up the QRN float as a great deal for investors, with coal being a major component of its freight.
On the other we see Gillard with the MRRT and a Carbon Tax, which will put up freight cost.
At the same time the reduction of coal export, because of the above two, compound the probem of profitability.
On top of this the 40% component of the Bligh government will be sold down by 2012.
Fundamentally how would you work this out?.
Cheers
On the one hand we have Bligh talking up the QRN float as a great deal for investors, with coal being a major component of its freight.
On the other we see Gillard with the MRRT and a Carbon Tax, which will put up freight cost.
At the same time the reduction of coal export, because of the above two, compound the probem of profitability.
On top of this the 40% component of the Bligh government will be sold down by 2012.
Fundamentally how would you work this out?.
Cheers
Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?
After reading the prospectus this is one business that
will never be into my superstar portfolio.
Myer, Kathmandu and now QR National all failed simple test...
Next
stock market is great you just sit around all year until something
good come along and play in your favour then you pump the cash in and watch it rise to superstar status
After reading the prospectus this is one business that
will never be into my superstar portfolio.
Myer, Kathmandu and now QR National all failed simple test...
Next
stock market is great you just sit around all year until something
good come along and play in your favour then you pump the cash in and watch it rise to superstar status
- Joined
- 28 May 2004
- Posts
- 10,833
- Reactions
- 5,173
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
Now that the proposed ASX code is known, this thread has been renamed and moved into the Stocks Q-Z forum.
Now that the proposed ASX code is known, this thread has been renamed and moved into the Stocks Q-Z forum.
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
http://www.smh.com.au/business/would-rich-dad-buy-qr-national-20101011-16f72.html
http://www.smh.com.au/business/would-rich-dad-buy-qr-national-20101011-16f72.html
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
- Joined
- 8 August 2006
- Posts
- 8,428
- Reactions
- 284
Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?
G'day. Am wondering who told you that lie about over employment in this company?
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
Running trains is a very expensive business, is highly unionised and with all the rules and regulations you can't make any real money.
QR in my opinion is a liability, the QLD gov knows this and wants to get it off its hands
Yep, its not looking good.
Running trains is a very expensive business, is highly unionised and with all the rules and regulations you can't make any real money.
QR in my opinion is a liability, the QLD gov knows this and wants to get it off its hands
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,413
- Reactions
- 18,061
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
Hi Wysiwyg,
I definitively read the 3y somewhere but agree from latest info;
so let's call this my mistake: one year only or are my readings wrong as well;
; might have to dig further based on union agreements etc to get more info
but withe the qld gov in for up to 40%, don't hold your breath; and yes I did not spent much time reading the prospectus:
even with 4 registered interests, I won't even waste a minute: all my feelings are run away with such an overprice.......
Might get in later on if it is properly valued (-20% and this did not include the 3nillion new liability so will have to fall hard before it even become a gamble)
but my opinion only;
Telstra shares were overpriced as well, i staid clear yet could have made a nice quick profit, took 10 years to reach value...Time will tell
Hi Wysiwyg,
I definitively read the 3y somewhere but agree from latest info;
so let's call this my mistake: one year only or are my readings wrong as well;
; might have to dig further based on union agreements etc to get more info
but withe the qld gov in for up to 40%, don't hold your breath; and yes I did not spent much time reading the prospectus:
even with 4 registered interests, I won't even waste a minute: all my feelings are run away with such an overprice.......
Might get in later on if it is properly valued (-20% and this did not include the 3nillion new liability so will have to fall hard before it even become a gamble)
but my opinion only;
Telstra shares were overpriced as well, i staid clear yet could have made a nice quick profit, took 10 years to reach value...Time will tell
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
- Joined
- 8 August 2006
- Posts
- 8,428
- Reactions
- 284
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
I read somewhere that Warren Buffet invested in a railway company and a quick search found he did in 2007. Not pushing QRN but they are well established in the coal & freight market.
No worries Qldfrog, my reliable source has noticed increased hiring and training in the coal division due to increased haulage commitments and yes there is a three year agreement in place regarding employment. There is also Pacific National (Asciano) knocking on doors so it will definitely be a (more?) competitive market.
I read somewhere that Warren Buffet invested in a railway company and a quick search found he did in 2007. Not pushing QRN but they are well established in the coal & freight market.
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
This is straight from their offer page,
Quote :
Attractive package of retail incentives
As a retail investor you are entitled to an attractive package of retail incentives only available through the Share Offer.
•Discount of 10 cents per share
•Pay no more than $2.80 per share
•Loyalty bonus shares
•No brokerage fees
•Guaranteed allocation of shares
•Benefits for Queensland resident investors
This is straight from their offer page,
Quote :
Attractive package of retail incentives
As a retail investor you are entitled to an attractive package of retail incentives only available through the Share Offer.
•Discount of 10 cents per share
•Pay no more than $2.80 per share
•Loyalty bonus shares
•No brokerage fees
•Guaranteed allocation of shares
•Benefits for Queensland resident investors
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
They would say that but they have to be joking at $2.8! it should be closer to $2.30 dont forget IPO's have been difficult to float in recent times and if they put up a figure like $2.8 it may scare off a lot of Mum & Dad investors
laurie
They would say that but they have to be joking at $2.8! it should be closer to $2.30 dont forget IPO's have been difficult to float in recent times and if they put up a figure like $2.8 it may scare off a lot of Mum & Dad investors
laurie
McCoy Pauley
Get out of here Budweiser!
- Joined
- 12 November 2009
- Posts
- 616
- Reactions
- 0
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
I admit that I haven't read the prospectus cover to cover, but I don't think I'll purchase shares in QRN. It needs to be positioned as a capital growth play, because the dividend yield is mediocre, at best. But I feel that there are some key risks to the capital growth story. QRN looks like it needs to spend a lot of money in the next few years on capital expenditure. It also needs to re-negotiate some contracts with current customers and I'm sure Asciano won't be sitting back allowing QRN to cherry pick the best rates for freight haulage. And then there's the issue of management transitioning from running a government-owned enterprise to a majority privately-owned enterprise.
I admit that I haven't read the prospectus cover to cover, but I don't think I'll purchase shares in QRN. It needs to be positioned as a capital growth play, because the dividend yield is mediocre, at best. But I feel that there are some key risks to the capital growth story. QRN looks like it needs to spend a lot of money in the next few years on capital expenditure. It also needs to re-negotiate some contracts with current customers and I'm sure Asciano won't be sitting back allowing QRN to cherry pick the best rates for freight haulage. And then there's the issue of management transitioning from running a government-owned enterprise to a majority privately-owned enterprise.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
I'm gona pass on this..honestly id rather buy Telstra considering the discount to the float prices.
Ill go on the record and predict this float will bomb, perhaps up a little over the first few weeks as the instos come in but then down as the reality sinks in.
I'm gona pass on this..honestly id rather buy Telstra considering the discount to the float prices.
Ill go on the record and predict this float will bomb, perhaps up a little over the first few weeks as the instos come in but then down as the reality sinks in.
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
Briefing of QRN has been attended by brokers.
Comments from one.
"We attended a briefing by QR National and were disappointed. First dividend will not be until second half of 2011 and will be low and unfranked. Growth in the share price will not come until implied inefficiencies are tackled from 2012 onwards. The offer may suit some investors including index funds and overseas investors, but better opportunities are elsewhere."
Briefing of QRN has been attended by brokers.
Comments from one.
"We attended a briefing by QR National and were disappointed. First dividend will not be until second half of 2011 and will be low and unfranked. Growth in the share price will not come until implied inefficiencies are tackled from 2012 onwards. The offer may suit some investors including index funds and overseas investors, but better opportunities are elsewhere."
McCoy Pauley
Get out of here Budweiser!
- Joined
- 12 November 2009
- Posts
- 616
- Reactions
- 0
Re: QRN - QR National IPO
Must be one of the few brokers not conflicted and actually capable of passing a rational judgment on the IPO. So many retail brokers are signed up to promote the float, there's been numerous comments made in the newsletters about how difficult it will be to get analysis.
Must be one of the few brokers not conflicted and actually capable of passing a rational judgment on the IPO. So many retail brokers are signed up to promote the float, there's been numerous comments made in the newsletters about how difficult it will be to get analysis.