QRN - QR National

So_Cynical · 23 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

poverty said:
But who the hell could have known where the top was?

Well everyone that's still holding from the floats sure as hell knows what a bottom looks like. but seriously ...as if anyone would hold right thru that, from $9 to $2.60 even as the SP is falling down the other side of the peak, trending down for years, with all the negative press and outlook.

borrowing to pay dividends .. how could anyone just keep holding. :dunno:

matty77 · 24 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

Again I deal with them alot, and they are a basket case compared to other rail companies. My guess it will take a dive, anything involving a 'nationalised mum and dad investor strategy' is going to fail... telstra anyone?

Maybe in a couple of years time once QR have mainstreamed their system into the private sector and learn to make a profit, sack half the staff and reduce costs then the shares will be worth something.

Yes lots of generalisations, but too many people employed in a government company that is too over managed IMHO.

ROE · 24 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

matty77 said:
Again I deal with them alot, and they are a basket case compared to other rail companies. My guess it will take a dive, anything involving a 'nationalised mum and dad investor strategy' is going to fail... telstra anyone?

Maybe in a couple of years time once QR have mainstreamed their system into the private sector and learn to make a profit, sack half the staff and reduce costs then the shares will be worth something.

Yes lots of generalisations, but too many people employed in a government company that is too over managed IMHO.

I'm not defending QR National because the prospectus is not out but if you want to give a true pictures of government float let stack it up shall we..

Like I said before each investment has its own merits and risk

CSL: 2.30 Now $101 (factoring in 3 for 1 split)
45 times return without dividend

CBA: $5.40 Now $52.40
9 times return without dividend

TLS: We all know about it arent we and we use them as benchmark for all government float

BankWest $2.06 got bought out at $4.25
double the money

Tabcorp $2.16 now $6.88

and there are a few more all make them multi times return without counting dividend.

even if TLS goes broke and you participate in all government float you what? 50-55 times better off

Are we broke yet buying government asset??

so look like mum and dad investors you call them arent that bad after all, go mum and dad

matty77 · 24 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

That data is pretty useless really, can you compare it to the average rise/fall of the ASX over the same period and how the shares performed against it? Better or worse etc?

Also curios how each share performed within the first 3 months of IPO on a daily basis?

laurie · 25 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

Ok lets play a little game here what do you believe given other floats in recent times the price will be for the float

1. $1 - $1.50
2. $1.50 - $2
3. $2 - $2.5
4. $2.5 - $3
5. $3 - $3.5
6. $3.5 -------->

my guess is point 3 and depending what I get I may consider it prefer #2 though

laurie

jonnycage · 25 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

i wonder if all the mum and dad investors that bought the telstra shares at 7 bucks with government promotion as a great investment will go for this : )

no thanks

j c

matty77 · 25 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

laurie said:
Ok lets play a little game here what do you believe given other floats in recent times the price will be for the float

1. $1 - $1.50
2. $1.50 - $2
3. $2 - $2.5
4. $2.5 - $3
5. $3 - $3.5
6. $3.5 -------->

my guess is point 3 and depending what I get I may consider it prefer #2 though

laurie

point 5. - more of a question though, what % up or down will the price be after the first week?

laurie · 26 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

matty77 said:
point 5. - more of a question though, what % up or down will the price be after the first week?

Ah that's the $64,000 question not too sure if the employees that received $1000 of shares free can sell! and don't forget the loyalty shares if you don't sell so people may hold onto their lot

laurie

shinobi346 · 28 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

In the news today they are worried about whats going to happen to federal government's budget when the high commodity prices start dropping off. Most of QRN business is in moving coal, iron ore and bulk freight so it can't be good for them either when it hits.

Quote:
Originally Posted by So_Cynical View Post
Ok ill play ... why do QRN trains derail? is this not to do with the usual govt employee Incompetence? am i missing something here?

Please explain John. im my mind trains derail due to either.

* Mechanical failure (wheel falls off train/tracks not straight, two far apart etc)
* Human error (switch in wrong position/driver somehow thinks red means green)

I think that about covers it.
Land slips. It happened recently in Tasmania.

One more, idiots rocking trains and barely anything can be done aboutit except telling these lowlifes to move on.

matty77 · 28 September 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

Most common reason why trains are delayed in QLD is due to floods. That seriously covers 90% of the situations that happen in QLD.

Other states are different though, for example in NT you also get flooding AND lines buckling in the heat.

qldfrog · 3 October 2010

Hi, I thought it would be good to start a thread on what could be a very big float.
I did record my interest for as many entries as possible but until the price is known, it is just to keep options open;
I also can add that the notion of the state gov keeping a high power role there does not inspire much confidence.
Anyone else following this saga?

YELNATS · 3 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO

Been caught out on many IPO's in the past. I can't imagine that this one would be let go at any bargain price for retail investors.

I'm prepared to wait and see how it lists before I decide whether to be part of this action.

Tatts · 4 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO

There is already a thread on this
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20608&highlight=national

BrightGreenGlow · 4 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

matty77 said:
Most common reason why trains are delayed in QLD is due to floods. That seriously covers 90% of the situations that happen in QLD.

Other states are different though, for example in NT you also get flooding AND lines buckling in the heat.

HAHAHA.... Didn't know you worked in the Rail business. Because that 90% is a massive lie... I would say mechanical and speed would be much higher. Floods not really due to the weather stations and creek level readings they have set up. Often trains will not run if there is a 1% chance of water level being over the rail line.

ROE · 4 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

matty77 said:
That data is pretty useless really, can you compare it to the average rise/fall of the ASX over the same period and how the shares performed against it? Better or worse etc?

Also curios how each share performed within the first 3 months of IPO on a daily basis?

if you plot all those government asset against the ASX say you buy $5000 each float including TLS, you outperform the market by a margin hard to imagine not counting the dividend.

CBA dividend alone pay for your capital many times over

TLS can go to 0 and you still way way ahead the market...

My experience tell me
If you keep putting money away and keep investing, the good one will easy pay for the bad one
many times over

Julia · 4 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

ROE said:
TLS can go to 0 and you still way way ahead the market...

Really? How does that work?

If you bought $50,000 worth of TLS and it continued its downtrend to become worthless, how exactly are you 'still way ahead the market'?

Meantime, plenty of other companies which are not falling in capital value and still bringing in reasonable dividends.

Or just simply cash during these periods of volatility provides capital protection and decent interest rates.

So_Cynical · 4 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

Julia said:
Really? How does that work?

If you bought $50,000 worth of TLS and it continued its downtrend to become worthless, how exactly are you 'still way ahead the market'?

ROE is talking about buying at the float...so T1 was at about 3.60 i think and total gross divi payout per share is something like $6 so therefore your way ahead just on the divi return per share...your PA return would be nothing flash but still ahead.

ROE · 4 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

Julia said:
Really? How does that work?

If you bought $50,000 worth of TLS and it continued its downtrend to become worthless, how exactly are you 'still way ahead the market'?

Meantime, plenty of other companies which are not falling in capital value and still bringing in reasonable dividends.

Or just simply cash during these periods of volatility provides capital protection and decent interest rates.

read from the beginning

$5000 into CSL at float
$5000 into CBA at float
$5000 into TLS at float
$5000 into TAH at Float
$5000 into Bankwest at Float
$5000 into NSW Tab at Float

$5000 into CSL now roughly $220,000 bucks
$5000 into CBA now roughly $45000 bucks etc...
$5000 into TLS count it as $0
$5000 into Tabcorp now roughly $15000

and on it goes without counting the dividend

so TLS go to zero you still way way ahead,
even if you buy all 3 TLS and gone to zero and you still way ahead..

$30,000 turn into $300,000 thousand with TLS go to Zero
plus dividend that probably some where up there $350,000

There is a Chinese saying when the wind blows
some build shelters other build wind mills.

fear drive people to build shelters and not seeing opportunity at hand
one bad TLS float and they brand all government floats are bad not seeing the EXTRAORDINARY return from other floats.

There is weird thing that happen in the market not many people realise
when you invest similar money across many good business, eventually you have some bad and rotten apples but the one that are not rotten will return
many time more than the rotten ones and you end up much richer
than stacking money in cash or gold

Many people have bad luck with TLS I count myself lucky and love TLS... I bought T1
got out at $8 and that pay 20% for my house now all paid off from the return of the market..

didnt go to T2 but went into T3 and sold out at $4.50 I went back in at $2.92 recently
now got my dividends paid and the share is down to $2.62 or something...no fear
I'm used to the rotten one and the good one, all part of the long term plan

Wysiwyg · 4 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

I heard Courier Mail financial reporter comment that Queenslanders will be able to buy the shares at a discount. I think that discount will be bumped down on commencement of trading.

BrightGreenGlow · 5 October 2010

Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

Hmm I believe QRNational employees will get the chance to buy more discounted shares but the average Queenslander non-employee of QRN will only get a better place in the queue than the scum from other states. lol

QRN - QR National

So_Cynical

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matty77

ROE

matty77

laurie

jonnycage

matty77

laurie

shinobi346

matty77

qldfrog

YELNATS

Non illegitimus carborundum

Tatts

BrightGreenGlow

ROE

Julia

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ROE

Wysiwyg

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