qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

Chasing battery metals over the last 2 years has been a folly.

I think MIN is a league on its own, and their issue is well past lithium.
Of course, everyone flies higher when you trend on lithium, AI, solar, you name it..but structurally, i think MIN is really a bad company.

 

[qldfrog]

So this is a great news, I am going to start systems again:
I created a very simple RRG loosely based weekly system,10 positions max, I run it on paper since 20/01,
ensure I could not detect forward looking code and by friday, was up 4.77%

I simplified the system even further today (one of my big lesson in the last few years if you want a multi market success is simplicity.
I will call that system WeeklyRRGSMSF;
I suspect more refinement could be added, as well as playing with different time scale but this basic version will be the start:
ASX200 +asx ETFs allowing long plays in down markets
Backtest since 2000, from 100k inc $10 brokerage per trade, and with positions of 10k (not increasing)
I get the following:

you will notice decent return, low max DD, great recovery BUT low exposure and Sharpe ratio;
I think it is suitable for a SMSF play.When non exposed, the money will bring back interest
The chart:

Within the super, I will reinvest the profits so will actually have non fixed hopefully increasing parcels;
Spending a few more time to refine and they in on Monday, right in the middle of the fireworks..yeahhh

 

[qldfrog]

second thoughts: will start with 50k so 10x5k packets..serious issues in wall street plus untested with real money system, better play a bit safer

 

[qldfrog]

A newbie error/ PR error
I did last night change to fixed $10k parcel size in backtest results to avoid showing stratospheric results.and then get subjected to ,:
What about taxes, or buying a million share on Monday, you are day dreaming etc
Aka winnings are not reinvested
Backtests are tools, not expectations
I Also showed a 25y backtest..as you know, i have serious doubt that trading conditions 10y or more older are even relevant in 2025
But i did it to satisfy the: your backtests are not statistically relevant and your market duration too short
Out of the above: the participation rate aka exposure is probably misleading..so are draw downs
Inflation factor is ignored
A $10k parcel was significant 25y ago
I might provide you with updated backtest, reinvested profit on a shorter period 2020 to now..
And then subject to post covid recovery specifics,,,,
Not easy to win

 

[qldfrog]

Update cf system;
I still have 70k of pending orders on share investing for Monday;
I will probably delay the system start by a week to smooth the ods of a big crash, or even rebound
When I started investing in my first systems, the timing was atrocious and I paid it dearly, lets not give timing too much of a chance this time ..even if a week do not usually makes such a big difference but still, reinvesting whole super should not be done on a week, this is not Casino roulette

 

[divs4ever]

Update cf system;
I still have 70k of pending orders on share investing for Monday;
I will probably delay the system start by a week to smooth the ods of a big crash, or even rebound
When I started investing in my first systems, the timing was atrocious and I paid it dearly, lets not give timing too much of a chance this time ..even if a week do not usually makes such a big difference but still, reinvesting whole super should not be done on a week, this is not Casino roulette

now when i was starting out ( in 2011 the timing was luck + cash to splash )

i started ( mostly ) small and SOMETIMES would put in multiple orders on a selected target in say 5% drops ( and YES sometimes i filled up to 3 orders on one day for the same stock , a 20% drop in a day sure tests your nerve and sleep patterns )

YES the brokerage was heavy back then , but nowdays Commsec charge $4.99 for orders $1,000 ( or less )

not so efficient on shares over $20 a share .. but say a $1 or $2 share ( and buying set $ amounts ) very interesting

also revisit @Skate investing adventure ( when he had real cash on the table ) that contained some lessons AND questions ( like how important is franking to YOU , and is DRP your friend of just and box to tick or ignore )

good luck ,

this could either be opportunity or a trap